harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Let's revisit the issue in one year, two years and three years.
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Close call but I would be happier as a Padre fan with the Eric Hosmer signing because his physical apparently did not require nearly a week of contract negotiations to cover injury concerns. Again, I hope the contracts work out for all sides.
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J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer represent similar value in relation to their respective contracts. Or not. No one should care about my opinion. Martinez is a better fit for the Red Sox because of the perceived need for a big bat while Hosmer is a better fit for the Padres because of his age, health and reported leadership skills. Hosmer is no stranger to joining a downtrodden franchise. The Royals had averaged 97.4 losses a season in the seven years before Hosmer's arrival and suffered 91 and 90 losses in Hosmer's first two seasons in Kansas City. The Royals have since made to trips to the World Series, winning the title in 2015. Perhaps Hosmer can lead a similar renaissance in San Diego. Or not. I hope Martinez and Hosmer live up to their contracts but I'll be pulling for Hosmer because the Padres are my favorite National League team.
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J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer are not equal in terms of OPS but a narrow focus on OPS is not particularly helpful in assessing overall value. It's interesting that FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron listed Hosmer as the No. 1 free agent landmine: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-free-agent-landmines/ ... before Cameron took a job in the San Diego Padres analytics department: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-one-i-never-thought-i-would-write/
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J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer present a wide range of potential outcomes, including the possibility that Hosmer will outproduce Martinez. Perhaps not highly likely, but within the realm of possibility. We'll have a better idea in three years or so. Martinez has been hyped as the primary Red Sox target since before the onset of the offseason. Hosmer has been the offseason's piñata because, as stated at MLB Trade Rumors, "Every year one free agent is particularly polarizing, and this winter it’s Hosmer." https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html Nevertheless, MLB Trade Rumors projected Martinez and Hosmer with similar contracts. Their ultimate contracts are hard to compare but one could contend that Hosmer got the better deal, perhaps because Hosmer has played in 478 games over the last three seasons while Martinez has played in only 397 games over that period. Many long-term contracts represent poor investments but I hope Martinez works out for the Red Sox and Hosmer for the Padres.
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Steamer, last year's most accurate of the widely available projections, projects 2018 WAR of 2.4 in 624 plate appearances for Eric Hosmer and 2.4 in 544 plate appearances for J.D. Martinez: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3516&position=1B https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6184&position=OF Other services give the 30-year-old Martinez a substantial edge over the 28-year-old Hosmer in projected 2018 WAR but each player's nine-figure contract carries significant risks.
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I would not have signed Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144 million contract, but this board's Hosmer hate is over the top. The Padres sought leadership for a young club with long-range potential. BTW, Hosmer stroked a three-run homer today ... I hope to see Hosmer play on Thursday against the Cubs.
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I doubt it as well.
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For what it's worth, FanGraphs projects these combined WAR totals for each division: AL East: 200.0 AL Central: 146.5 AL West: 192.2 NL East: 157.3 NL Central: 185.9 NL West: 181.9 https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 Perhaps this is the year that the AL East will live up to the annual refrain that it's the toughest division in baseball. Or not.
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Will the AL East represent the American League in the World Series for only the second time in nine seasons? Could happen.
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A starting pitcher who ranks 35th in American League with 147 innings and posts the league average ERA of 4.54 could be considered an average starter. A starting pitcher who tosses 200 innings with a 4.30 ERA is an above-average starter. Your book sucks. Or not. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=AL&year=2017
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This offseason the San Diego Padres have gone eight years and the Milwaukee Brewers five years (the Chicago Cubs six years and the Red Sox five years).
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I was merely comparing the value of a 200-inning pitcher such as Rick Porcello and any 150-inning pitcher. The difference costs a team in terms of salary and roster slots.
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I indeed lost the bet that I said I would make if I were a betting person (which I am not). In the end J.D. Martinez took what he thought was the best offer. I hope the deal works out for all sides.
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The 200 innings that Rick Porcello typically tosses are 200 innings that must be covered by a pitcher or pitchers. If Eduardo Rodriguez can pitch 150 of those innings (which the left-hander has not done the last two seasons), that still leaves 50 innings to be pitched by another pitcher or pitchers. The pitcher who makes up the innings difference between Porcello and Rodriguez is a pitcher who otherwise was not good enough to make the 25-man roster. More importantly, that supplemental pitcher takes up another slot on the 25-man roster, limiting the team's options. That's what makes an innings-eater so valuable. No one is suggesting Porcello is a perennial Cy Young candidate but to date the right-hander has (inconsistently) lived up to his four-year, $82.5 million contract.
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My error. The Red Sox have won 57.4 percent of Rick Porcello's 94 starts with Boston.
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The Red Sox have won 57.4 percent of Rick Porcello's 94 starts with the Sox: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01-pitch.shtml
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You just made a projection whether consciously or subconsciously.
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Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects 2018 WAR of 2.9 for Rick Porcello, 2.6 for Drew Pomeranz and 2.6 for Eduardo Rodriguez: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d Of course, Porcello is far more likely than Pomeranz or Rodriguez to pitch 200 innings this year. ZiPS ranks Pomeranz, Porcello and Rodriguez in that order in projected 2018 WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
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Rick Porcello has posted 7.1 fWAR, valued at $57.4 million, in the first two seasons of his four-year, $82.5 million contract. The right-hander posted 2.0 fWAR, valued at $16.3 million, last year. FanGraphs Depth Charts project 2018 WAR of 2.5 in 29 starts for Porcello, 1.6 in 26 starts for Lance Lynn and 2.0 in 23 starts for Alex Cobb. Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 2.4 in 29 starts for Porcello, 1.3 in 26 starts for Lynn and 1.7 in 23 starts for Cobb. ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 2.7 in 30 starts for Porcello, 2.1 in 31 starts for Lynn and 2.5 in 26 starts for Cobb. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2520&position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6562&position=P Porcello is at least a year younger than Lynn and Cobb.
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The Red Sox are scheduled to play 10 games in National League parks against the Marlins (2), Nationals (3), Phillies (2) and Braves (3): Boston Red Sox Schedule | Boston Red Sox WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball
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Betweem 1996 and 2011 Washington State product Mark Hendrickson played parts of four NBA seasons as a power forward and parts of 10 MLB seasons as a towering 6-foot-9 pitcher: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hendrma01.html https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendrma01.shtml
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Portland Trail Blazer shooting guard Pat Connaughton out of St. John's Preparatory School in Danvers, Massachusetts. The Baltimore Orioles drafted the 6-foot-5, 215-pound Connaughton as a pitcher out of the University of Notre Dame in the fourth round of the June 2014 draft: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=connau000pat Connaughton has averaged 6.2 points a game off the bench this year for the Trail Blazers: http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=22205819&ex_cid=espnapi_public I saw Connaughton throw out the first pitch at a Hillsboro Hops game in the short-season Northwest League.
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And yet the San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins are among the teams that reportedly are in the running to sign free agents projected to land nine-figure contracts (the Padres already signed a $144 million deal).