harmony

The 2012 Red Sox were 60-66 on August 25 when the Sox traded Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Sox were 9-27 the remainder of 2012, rivaling the 12-37 slide of this year's Seattle Mariners April 12 through June 4. Seattle's 13-2 start this season was unexpected, as was the 12-37 slide that followed, but the M's 9-8 record since the slide falls within expectations.

The defending World Series champion Red Sox have matched the record after 79 games* of the 2012 Red Sox, who finished the season in last place at 69-93. The Red Sox are two games better than the Chicago Cubs were after 79 games** in 2017 when the defending World Series champions finished 92-70, winning the NL Central and advancing to the National League Championship Series. This year's fortunes should fall somewhere in between. * the 2012 Sox achieved the 42-37 record in Seattle by topping the Mariners in a 10-inning Sunday afternoon game. ** The 2017 Cubs lost six of their next nine games to fall to 43-45 before mounting a comeback.

The defending World Series champion Red Sox have matched the record after 79 games* of the 2012 Red Sox, who finished the season in last place at 69-93. The Red Sox are two games better than the Chicago Cubs were after 79 games** in 2017 when the defending World Series champions finished 92-70, winning the NL Central and advancing to the National League Championship Series. This year's fortunes should fall somewhere in between. * the 2012 Sox achieved the 42-37 record in Seattle by topping the Mariners in a 10-inning Sunday afternoon game. ** The 2017 Cubs lost six of their next nine games to fall to 43-45 before mounting a comeback.

And I'm just giving you a hard time ... I always welcome your contributions (and criticisms).

Anonymous posters to a baseball forum get confirmation from recognized quantitative sources.

Or the worst chances of repeating as divisional champs: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-standings.shtml

FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox an 11 percent chance of repeating as American League East champs: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ ... while FanGraphs lists the Red Sox chances at 8.2 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Entering this season with one year and 165 days of MLB service, Hunter Renfroe should be a Super Two after this season with four more years of team control. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/renfrhu01.shtml

Any interest in two-and-a-half years of former Red Sox farmhand Roenis Elias, a 30-year-old lefthander who this season is averaging 9.3 K/9 with nine saves in 31 appearances out of the Seattle bullpen? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eliasro01.shtml Elias, who has a 2019 salary of only $910,000, barely fits into the Mariners' targeted 2021 season.

What does it mean to go "on record"? https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2019-06-13/padres-hunter-renfroe-trade-deadline-franmil-reyes

If the Red Sox are no longer in the race, their strategy changes as well. The Red Sox have the advantage of playing in the same division as the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays while the Texas Rangers play in the more balanced AL West. FiveThirtyEight projects the AL East to finished a cumulative 16 games below .500 (despite the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox) while projecting the AL West to finish a cumulative 26 games above .500: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ The updated ZiPS projections find a similar disparity between the two divisions: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-almost-midseason-update-american-league/ The AL West may have the tougher interleague asssignment this year with the NL Central while the AL East gets the NL West.

The occasionally updated MLB Prospect Watch list has Estevan Florial at No. 48 and Jonathan Loaisiga at No. 98: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=nyy

Former Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez is a sidelined rental but the righthander is not the Seattle icon the Red Sox reportedly targeted 10 years ago: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/sources-mariners-nixed-three-way-felix-hernandez-trade-sending-padres-slugger-adrian-gonzalez-to-seattle/ :) Seattle innings-eater Mike Leake would take pressure off the Red Sox bullpen but the net $19 million remaining on his contract through 2020 could be a deterrent (and there's no guarantee that Leake would waive his no-trade provision to head East).

A half game out of the second Wild Card slot, the Texas Rangers are unlikely to trade a year and a half of their ace.

Rick Porcello's Cy Young season in 2016 was a clear outlier in the righthander's 11-season career. Since the start of the 2017 season Porcello ranks 46th* among all starters in fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2017-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&page=2_30 Which has value. * not counting Monday's stellar performance, which should lift Porcello into a tie with Seattle righthander Mike Leake

My saves-poor fantasy team had Blake Parker in the lineup and Ryan Brasier on the bench.

My property professor in law school was a huge Red Sox fan who worked into his lecture on the Rule Against Perpetuities the image of Dennis Eckersley pitching in the 88th inning. The rule was violated if a property interest was not guaranteed to vest "within the lives in being." In other words, an interest that would vest at the end of the Red Sox season in 1980 violated the rule because Eckersley theoretically could pitch into perpetuity.

That was my minor disappointment. I've gotten over it.

Especially to contenders.

FanGraphs gave the much-ballyhooed Bobby Dalbec a Future Value of 40+ as the Seattle native approaches his 24th birthday this month. The ceiling of a 19-year-old might be preferred over the ceiling of a nearly 24-year-old. Or not.

MLB Prospect Watch offers this report on Juan Then, who was born in 2000: "Then has successfully navigated two years of Rookie ball thanks to advanced pitchability. In his first season with his new organization, he led the Gulf Coast League in WHIP (0.98) and finished third in opponent average (.210). He was waiting to make his 2019 debut when he was sent back to the Mariners in June's Edwin Encarnacion deal." http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sea Juan Then may amount to nothing -- or something -- but Edwin Encarnacion did not fit into Seattle's long-range plans.

While the Red Sox were sweeping the now 21-50 Baltimore Orioles, my woeful Seattle Mariners were completing a 5-4 road trip against the Angels, Twins and Athletics, who are a combined 22 games above .500. A important series awaits the Red Sox in Minnesota.

Rick Porcello was drafted out of high school in 2007 while Mike Leake was drafted in 2009 following a successful college career at Arizona State.

Bingo ... and it's Dipoto with a lower-case p. My least favorite Mariners trade of recent years was the Jean Segura, James Pazos and Juan Nicasio* trade to Philadelphia for J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana. But Santana was flipped 10 days later to Cleveland for Edwin Encarnacion, who was traded Saturday for Juan Then, plus a competitive balance pick that was used earlier this month to select Arkansas righthander Isaiah Campbell. So the Segura trade has netted: 24-year-old shortstop J.P. Crawford, who has posted 0.6 fWAR in 20 games and preserved another year of team control after starting the season in the minors 19-year-old righthander Juan Then, whom I suspect was more highly regarded by Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto than by many posters on this forum 21-year-old Isaiah Campbell, the Arkansas righthander who followed up his dominant season in the powerful SEC with seven shutout innings (10 K) Saturday in the College World Series The Segura trade is starting to make more sense for a club with an eye for the future. * Segura has posted 1.5 fWAR in 61 games, Pazos was traded for a minor leaguer and Nicasio has posted 0.1 fWAR for his $9.25 million salary.

Like most new millennium* players who have never played above rookie leagues, Juan Then is slated to open the season at short-season Class A. The Yankees' short-season affiliate, the Staten Island Pizza Rats, opened their season Friday night as did Seattle's short-season affiliate, the Everett AquaSox. That's the season Juan Then has "missed." * born after January 1, 2000