harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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After posting a 103-58 regular-season record and winning the 2016 World Series, the highly regarded 2017 Chicago Cubs were 34-34 after 68 games en route to a 92-70 record and an eventual berth in the National League Championship Series. Perhaps it's too early to push the panic button. Or not.
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Thank you for the update. The current rankings apparently are not available without a Baseball America subscription. Who are the two ranked Red Sox prospects?
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FanGraphs recently ranked the Red Sox farm system last: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pre-draft-farm-system-rankings/ The Red Sox have no prospects among the current Top 100 at MLB Prospect Watch: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects The Red Sox had no prospects among the preseason Top 132 at FanGraphs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/ The Red Sox had no prospects among the preseason Top 100 at Baseball America: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/prospects/byYear.asp?Y=2019&Src=BA The Red Sox had no prospects among the preseason Top 101 at Baseball Prospectus: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46653/2019-prospects-the-top-101/ The Red Sox built a formidable World Series champion in part by depleting the farm. The result is a system barren of top prospects. It's certainly not too late to bid on Edwin Encarnacion (who stroked a three-run homer Tuesday) but the Seattle Mariners are likely to look to teams with better prospects to offer.
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Jay Bruce was owed more money with a guaranteed contract through 2020. ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project rest-of-season WAR of 0.6, 0.4 and 0.6 for Bruce and 1.3, 1.4 and 1.3 for Encarnacion. The Mariners essentially cleared a roster slot while receiving an inconsequential return in the Bruce trade. But Encarnacion is worth at least twice as much with a shorter obligation. The Red Sox do not match up well for a trade with the Mariners.
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Bobby Dalbec is toiling at Double A as he approaches his 24th birthday this month. According to the FanGraphs preseason prospect values, Dalbec would rank no higher than 10th on the Seattle prospect list (that described unranked Rookie of the Year candidate Daniel Vogelbach with a Fringy Offensive Profile:)): https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-26-prospects-boston-red-sox/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-25-prospects-seattle-mariners/ The Mariners will likely receive better offers for Edwin Encarnacion.
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To be precise, the proposal was three and a half seasons of Andrew Benintendi for two and a half seasons of Domingo Santana, a half season (or a season and half) of Edwin Encarnacion and $5 million. If Encarnacion were an unburdened free agent at the end of this season would the veteran receive a qualifying offer? Much depends on his performance the remainder of this year. But if Encarnacion would receive the hypothetical qualifying offer, would a team in real life exercise his 2020 option for a net $15 million ($20 million salary for 2020 less the $5 million buyout)? Last offseason the qualifying offer was $17.9 million.
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06/11 Red Hot Rangers @ The Boston Chokers
harmony replied to TylerD's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
The San Francisco Giants were 33-33 en route to a 73-89 finish ... -
Domingo Santana is 26 years old: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santado01.shtml
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According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the $136.75 million* the Red Sox already have committed for 2021 does not include arbitration salaires for Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree. Luxury tax concerns should not disappear. The Red Sox can only hope that the big contracts for aging veterans don't turn into dead money. * as points of reference, the New York Yankees have $94.7 million committed for 2021 and the Los Angeles Dodgers $89.5 million
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In 2021, the likely Mookie Betts-less Red Sox will be relying on the fragile health of David Price, J.D. Martinez, Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Dustin Pedroia, who all remain under guaranteed contracts with sizable salaries (unless Martinez opts out). The current Red Sox farm system is ranked at the bottom. The window of the 34-33 Red Sox may be closing. Or not.
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Swiharts Ghost brought Edwin Encarnacion into this conversation three pages ago on this forum. The dialogue has at least been entertaining.
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See ya in 2021.
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Edwin Encarnacion has a UZR/150 of a negative 2.5 in 376.1 innings at first base this year with a negative 1 Defensive Runs Saved. As a point of reference, Gold Glover Mitch Moreland has a UZR/150 of a negative 4.0 in 322 innings at first base this year with 0 Defensive Runs Saved.
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Make it simple: Andrew Benintendi for Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana and $5 million. Left field at Fenway might be the ideal place to hide Santana's defensive deficiencies (with help from Gold Glovers Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts). The Mariners extend their prospective window with Benintendi's added year of team control.
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When Seattle traded for Edwin Encarnacion on December 13, the immediate speculation was that the Mariners would flip Encarnacion to either the Houston Astros or Tampa Bay Rays. No one expected Encarnacion to report to Spring Training with the Mariners. Fortunately for the Mariners, Encarnacion has enhanced his trade value with a strong performance.
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The emoji suggested the half-serious tone of the trade proposal.
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Perhaps Texas as the Rangers seeks to extend their lead over Wild Card pursuers.
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I suspect money is not an issue for Seattle (as evidenced by the Jay Bruce trade). The Mariners likely will be willing to pay down Edwin Encarnacion's contract to get a better return. If the Mariners pay just $10 million of the balance, many teams should be interested in the veteran who already this year has posted 1.7 fWAR, valued at $13.4 million. Bruce had posted only 0.6 fWAR, valued at $4.9 million, at the time of his trade and has a contract guaranteed through 2020. In light of the money that exchanged hands, the return in the Bruce trade was disappointing so perhaps I overvalue some assets. However, the package of Steve Pearce, Darwinzon Hernandez and Jarren Duran -- with money going from Seattle to Boston -- is cringe-worthy.
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The Red Sox may have the payroll flexibility to trade three and a half seasons of Andrew Benintendi to Seattle for two and a half years of outfielder Domingo Santana (2019 salary $1.95 million) and two and a half years of reliever Hunter Strickland (2019 salary $1.3 million). The Sox would pay a high price in talent for a big bat and a potential closer. That's my wild fantasy-type suggestion.
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That pair might not land a season and a half of Seattle infielder Tim Beckham.
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I suspect the Mariners will set their sights higher than two and a half seasons of a nearly 29-year-old reliever. The Red Sox may have neither the pieces nor financial flexibility to make a competitive offer for Edwin Encarnacion.
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The Seattle Mariners probably are willing to pay down the money owed Edwin Encarnacion for a better return from a prospect-laden true contender such as the Houston Astros or Tampa Bay Rays. Steve Pearce, Darwinzon Hernandez and Jarren Duran is one unattractive package.
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Whom should the Red Sox trade for an established closer and "Edwin freaking Rakes"? The Red Sox are thin on trade assets.
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Can the Red Sox make a competitive offer if the Blue Jays make Ken Giles available?
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Whom should the Red Sox trade for a season and a half of Ken Giles with his 2019 salary of $6.3 million?