harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/replacement-level/
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And my posts will continue to refrain from becoming personal.
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In statistics a larger sample is better than a smaller sample. Far more players shuffle between the majors and minors than who have established careers as average MLB players. WAR relies on the vast numbers of those replacement players.
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And yet this year the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers are not mediocre.
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An MLB.com columnist has 20 trade deadline predictions for for 20 player, including Mets corner infielder Todd Frazier to the Red Sox (despite the balance of his 2019 salary of $9 million): 20 predictions for 2019 MLB Trade Deadline WWW.MLB.COM The 2019 Trade Deadline is a week from Wednesday (4 p.m. ET on July 31), and as you've probably heard, it's a little different this year. There's no August waiver period this time around, and therefore if teams want to make moves to reinforce a playoff push, they've only got
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This post ridicules science. Art and science can co-exist ... and in fact complement each other.
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The Red Sox need to take some teams out in the regular season if the Sox hope to advance to the postseason: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
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7/19 SOX @ Baltimore 7:05PM
harmony replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
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Thanks. The Double happened on my 40th birthday (in my first season as a Mariner fan) and gave my childhood love of baseball a second life. I had to cancel plans to go to Seattle this Sunday to watch the livestream of Edgar's Hall of Fame induction on the big screen at T-Mobile Park.
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According to one site, David Price's contract has a median trade value of a negative $44.8 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
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For what it's worth, Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts came in No. 14 and No. 19 on FanGraphs' annual midseason trade value list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-11-to-20/
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It's all good.
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Was that necessary?:) Diverse opinions are welcome here.
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I lost interest after the Denver Broncos attained the "ultimate goal" in consecutive years. Perhaps I am fortunate that my life lacks a success void yearning to be filled vicariously by the onfield success of my favorite sports team. My happiness does not correlate with the wins and losses of the Seattle Mariners. Generalizations have little value but ... Red Sox fans tend to be visceral while Mariner fans tend to be cerebral. Sox fans revel in the instant joy of a win or a World Series title while Mariner fans tend to be problem-solvers entranced by the troubles of their favorite franchise. It's probably no coincidence that Dave Cameron and Jeff Sullivan went from amateur bloggers for the Mariners to managing editors at FanGraphs to jobs in the front offices of two MLB teams.
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Maybe within my lifetime ... maybe not. I was a hardcore Denver Broncos fan for 20 years but lost interest after the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in the late 1990s. I don't follow the NFL at all these days. Sometimes it's the journey, not the destination.
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You're on a roll despite your improper grammar but Seattle fans take minor solace that six Mariner prospects are ranked above the top Red Sox prospect at MLB Prospect Watch: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects The Red Sox and Mariners entered this season with contrasting goals.
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Last night in the 95th game of the season the Red Sox lost at home to the Blue Jays to fall to 51-44. In the 95th game of the 2012 season the Red Sox lost at home to the Blue Jays to fall to 48-47. It could be worse.
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For the first time in recent memory FanGraphs has dropped the Red Sox postseason chances below 50 percent (at 48.9): https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds ... while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox postseason chances at 33 percent: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/
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Could Andrew Cashner be trade bait if the Red Sox struggle in the eight or nine games against the Rays and Yankees leading up to the July 31 trade deadline? If so, could the Red Sox get more back in a trade than the Sox gave up in the July 13 trade for Cashner?
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Jackie Bradley Jr.'s OPS+ went from 49 in 423 plate appearances in 2014 to 119 in 255 plate appearances in 2015. Mookie Betts' OPS+ went from 108 in 2017 to 185 in 2018 to 124 this year. Stats sometimes fluctuate year to year.
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In the "old days" -- perhaps eight years ago -- the trained observers made the defensive assessments on each play. Today those calls are made by Statcast and similar devices that precisely track, among other things, the angle and velocity of the ball as well as the position of the player. For better or worse, technology has taken over the game. I recommend the new book The MVP Machine: How Baseball's New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/building-the-next-babe-ruth/590641/
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https://library.fangraphs.com/the-beginners-guide-to-replacement-level/
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https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/replacement-level/
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FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 53.3 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox chances at 38 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ An exciting finish indeed.