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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    The Yankees, Rays and Red Sox can inflate their win totals playing in the same division as the Blue Jays and Orioles. The AL East is a cumulative 16 games below .500. Red Sox competition for a Wild Card slot comes from, among others, the Rangers, Athletics and Angels, who play in the more balanced AL West, which is a cumulative 15 games above .500. So far this season the AL East has posted a 43-50 record in head-to-head competition with the AL West. The Yankees, Rays and Red Sox have the advantange of playing in the weaker division.
  2. harmony
    The Red Sox still have the advantage of playing in the same division as the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, who should help inflate the Sox win total. Based on the FanGraphs strength-of-schedule projections, the Cleveland Guardians may have an even easier path to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds The three Wild Card contenders from the more balanced American League West have the tougher remaining schedules. 2024 MLB Standings and Records: Wild Card | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The official standings for Major League Baseball including division and league standings for regular season, wild card, and playoffs.
  3. harmony
    The 2012 Red Sox were 60-66 on August 25 when the Sox traded Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Sox were 9-27 the remainder of 2012, rivaling the 12-37 slide of this year's Seattle Mariners April 12 through June 4. Seattle's 13-2 start this season was unexpected, as was the 12-37 slide that followed, but the M's 9-8 record since the slide falls within expectations.
  4. harmony
    The defending World Series champion Red Sox have matched the record after 79 games* of the 2012 Red Sox, who finished the season in last place at 69-93. The Red Sox are two games better than the Chicago Cubs were after 79 games** in 2017 when the defending World Series champions finished 92-70, winning the NL Central and advancing to the National League Championship Series. This year's fortunes should fall somewhere in between. * the 2012 Sox achieved the 42-37 record in Seattle by topping the Mariners in a 10-inning Sunday afternoon game. ** The 2017 Cubs lost six of their next nine games to fall to 43-45 before mounting a comeback.
  5. harmony
    The defending World Series champion Red Sox have matched the record after 79 games* of the 2012 Red Sox, who finished the season in last place at 69-93. The Red Sox are two games better than the Chicago Cubs were after 79 games** in 2017 when the defending World Series champions finished 92-70, winning the NL Central and advancing to the National League Championship Series. This year's fortunes should fall somewhere in between. * the 2012 Sox achieved the 42-37 record in Seattle by topping the Mariners in a 10-inning Sunday afternoon game. ** The 2017 Cubs lost six of their next nine games to fall to 43-45 before mounting a comeback.
  6. harmony
    And I'm just giving you a hard time ... I always welcome your contributions (and criticisms).
  7. harmony
    Anonymous posters to a baseball forum get confirmation from recognized quantitative sources.
  8. harmony
    Or the worst chances of repeating as divisional champs: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-standings.shtml
  9. harmony
    FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox an 11 percent chance of repeating as American League East champs: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ ... while FanGraphs lists the Red Sox chances at 8.2 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
  10. harmony
    Entering this season with one year and 165 days of MLB service, Hunter Renfroe should be a Super Two after this season with four more years of team control. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/renfrhu01.shtml
  11. harmony
    Any interest in two-and-a-half years of former Red Sox farmhand Roenis Elias, a 30-year-old lefthander who this season is averaging 9.3 K/9 with nine saves in 31 appearances out of the Seattle bullpen? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eliasro01.shtml Elias, who has a 2019 salary of only $910,000, barely fits into the Mariners' targeted 2021 season.
  12. harmony
    What does it mean to go "on record"? https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2019-06-13/padres-hunter-renfroe-trade-deadline-franmil-reyes
  13. harmony
    If the Red Sox are no longer in the race, their strategy changes as well. The Red Sox have the advantage of playing in the same division as the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays while the Texas Rangers play in the more balanced AL West. FiveThirtyEight projects the AL East to finished a cumulative 16 games below .500 (despite the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox) while projecting the AL West to finish a cumulative 26 games above .500: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ The updated ZiPS projections find a similar disparity between the two divisions: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-almost-midseason-update-american-league/ The AL West may have the tougher interleague asssignment this year with the NL Central while the AL East gets the NL West.
  14. harmony
    The occasionally updated MLB Prospect Watch list has Estevan Florial at No. 48 and Jonathan Loaisiga at No. 98: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=nyy
  15. harmony
    Former Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez is a sidelined rental but the righthander is not the Seattle icon the Red Sox reportedly targeted 10 years ago: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/sources-mariners-nixed-three-way-felix-hernandez-trade-sending-padres-slugger-adrian-gonzalez-to-seattle/ :) Seattle innings-eater Mike Leake would take pressure off the Red Sox bullpen but the net $19 million remaining on his contract through 2020 could be a deterrent (and there's no guarantee that Leake would waive his no-trade provision to head East).
  16. harmony
    A half game out of the second Wild Card slot, the Texas Rangers are unlikely to trade a year and a half of their ace.
  17. harmony
    Rick Porcello's Cy Young season in 2016 was a clear outlier in the righthander's 11-season career. Since the start of the 2017 season Porcello ranks 46th* among all starters in fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2017-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&page=2_30 Which has value. * not counting Monday's stellar performance, which should lift Porcello into a tie with Seattle righthander Mike Leake
  18. harmony
    My saves-poor fantasy team had Blake Parker in the lineup and Ryan Brasier on the bench.
  19. harmony
    My property professor in law school was a huge Red Sox fan who worked into his lecture on the Rule Against Perpetuities the image of Dennis Eckersley pitching in the 88th inning. The rule was violated if a property interest was not guaranteed to vest "within the lives in being." In other words, an interest that would vest at the end of the Red Sox season in 1980 violated the rule because Eckersley theoretically could pitch into perpetuity.
  20. harmony
    That was my minor disappointment. I've gotten over it.
  21. harmony
    Especially to contenders.
  22. harmony
    FanGraphs gave the much-ballyhooed Bobby Dalbec a Future Value of 40+ as the Seattle native approaches his 24th birthday this month. The ceiling of a 19-year-old might be preferred over the ceiling of a nearly 24-year-old. Or not.
  23. harmony
    MLB Prospect Watch offers this report on Juan Then, who was born in 2000: "Then has successfully navigated two years of Rookie ball thanks to advanced pitchability. In his first season with his new organization, he led the Gulf Coast League in WHIP (0.98) and finished third in opponent average (.210). He was waiting to make his 2019 debut when he was sent back to the Mariners in June's Edwin Encarnacion deal." http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sea Juan Then may amount to nothing -- or something -- but Edwin Encarnacion did not fit into Seattle's long-range plans.
  24. harmony
    While the Red Sox were sweeping the now 21-50 Baltimore Orioles, my woeful Seattle Mariners were completing a 5-4 road trip against the Angels, Twins and Athletics, who are a combined 22 games above .500. A important series awaits the Red Sox in Minnesota.
  25. harmony
    Rick Porcello was drafted out of high school in 2007 while Mike Leake was drafted in 2009 following a successful college career at Arizona State.
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