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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. Seattle rookie Daniel Vogelbach has nearly doubled the fWAR of Michael Chavis (in 56 games to Chavis' 40 games): https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=2&team=0&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate= It's hard to ignore Vogelbach's wRC+ of 149.
  2. The Red Sox schedule only gets harder. http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos
  3. WAR has many of the same small-sample limitations that other reliever stats have.
  4. Not related, but Edgar Martinez had 23 plate appearances against fellow Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera with this line: .579/.652/1.053/1.705. Martinez did not fare so well in 33 plate appearances against Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez: .120/.333/.120/.453.
  5. Through Michael Chavis' first 38 games the Red Sox are 30-29 on the season. Through Will Middlebrooks' first 38 games the Red Sox were 36-33 on the season en route to a 69-93 finish. History is unlikely to repeat. Nevertheless the parallels remain interesting: Michael Chavis was 23 years, 252 days old, when he made his MLB debut in Game 21 of the 2019 season nearly five years after being drafted out of high school as a righthanded power-hitting infielder. Will Middlebrooks was 23 years, 236 days old when he made his MLB debut in Game 24 of the 2012 season nearly five years after being drafted out of high school as a righthanded power-hitting infielder.
  6. Ages at MLB debuts: Michael Chavis: 23 years, 252 days Will Middlebrooks: 23 years, 236 days Ken Griffey Jr.: 19 years, 133 days
  7. It's true that Will Middlebrooks had a BABIP of .380 through 38 games while Michael Chavis has a BABIP of .329 through 38 games. Middlebrooks had struck out in 25.5 percent of his plate appearances while Chavis has struck out in 29.7 percent of his plate appearances. Then again, the game has changed in seven short years with the spike in strikeouts. The biggest contrast is in walks with Middlebrooks walking in only 4.8 percent of his plate appearances and Chavis walking in 10.9 percent of plate appearances.
  8. Michael Chavis and Will Middlebrooks in a comparison of the first 38 games of their respective MLB careers: MC 165 PA, .264/.358/.500/.858, 49 K, 18 BB, 22 R, 10 HR, 28 RBI WM 145 PA, .316/.352/.551/.903, 37 K, 7 BB, 20 R, 8 HR, 31 RBI
  9. Not necessarily: https://www.npr.org/2018/08/03/635373608/fight-against-low-low-pay-in-minor-league-baseball-continues-despite-new-obstacl
  10. The Red Sox likely are preparing on a continuum of contingencies. The Sox need ongoing revisions to a plan to contend while also working on an alternative plan to sell. The Sox probably remain in a contend mode today but may soon face the tough decision to stay in the game or fold.
  11. Could be worse: the Kansas City Royals have six saves and and nine blown saves. The 31-24 Chicago Cubs and the 29-28 Oakland Athletics each have 11 saves and 11 blown saves. http://proxy.espn.com/mlb/stats/team?stat=pitching&sort=blownSaves&type=expanded&order=true
  12. FanGraphs currently places the Red Sox postseason chances at 75.1 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds ... while FiveThirtyEight places the Sox chances at 56 percent: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/
  13. The Red Sox were 16-11 (.593) in May, but only 2-5 against the Houston Astros and New York Yankees. Their remaining 14-6 record came against teams that on average are on pace for 70-win seasons. The Red Sox schedule so far has not been particularly difficult: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos ... with a combined 30 games remaining against the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, who each are currently at least 15 games above .500. A challenge awaits the Red Sox.
  14. In May the Red Sox are 16-10 (.615) against teams that collectively have a weighted* .481 winning percentage so far this year. * the six games agains the 37-20 Houston Astros are weighted three times as much as the two games against the 28-27 Colorado Rockies. The weighted opponents' winning percentage without the Astros games would be .429, or a 70-win pace for a 162-game season
  15. Of the nine blown saves, the Red Sox won two of those games (Matt Barnes vs. Tampa Bay on April 20 and Heath Hembree vs. Toronto on May 22). https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA201904200.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201905220.shtml
  16. Wait ... it ain't over till it's over for the Seattle Mariners?
  17. The Red Sox remain a half game up on the Cleveland Guardians (but tied in the loss column) and tied overall with the Oakland Athletics. It should be an interesting race to the postseason.
  18. The Red Sox have had a relatively easy schedule to date: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos ... but must face the Yankees and Rays a combined 29 games the rest of the season, including 13 straight in late July and early August: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019-schedule-scores.shtml
  19. For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight projects the Red Sox at 61-46 (.570) the rest of the season while FanGraphs has the Sox at 63-44 (.585): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
  20. Hey! Gerson Bautista was later traded for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano. To be precise, the New York Mets traded Bautista, Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic, Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak to the Seattle Mariners for Diaz, Cano and cash.
  21. Addision Reed came with only three months of team control when the Red Sox acquired the reliever from the Mets on July 31, 2017, for Stephen Nogosek, Gerson Bautista and Jamie Callahan: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reedad01.shtml#all_transactions_other Adam Conley comes with three years of team control beyond this season. Brandon Kintzler came with a year and two months of team control on July 31, 2018, when the Cubs acquired the reliever from the Washington Nationals for Jhon Romero.
  22. Notin deserves respect on this forum for being realistic. Bobby Dalbec has posted a .241/.362/.456/.817 line in 188 plate appearances at Double A this year as the thirdbaseman approaches his 24th birthday in a month: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa857701&position=3B FanGraphs lists Dalbec's future value at only 40+.
  23. I doubt the 25-29 Los Angeles Angels, who are not expected to contend this year, would trade for a nearly 31-year-old utility player with a .125/.222/.125/.347 line over 27 plate appearances in his final year of team control.
  24. Jenrry Mejia has a 6.75 ERA over his past 10 appearances at Pawtucket: http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=516769#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL Still I have yet to cut Mejia (or Ryan Brasier) from my fantasy roster.
  25. Dustin Pedroia ranks seventh among Red Sox position players in career bWAR: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/leaders_bat_50.shtml Pedrioa's career bWAR of 51.7 is topped by only three Red Sox pitchers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/leaders_pitch_50.shtml
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