harmony

Steamer optimistically projects Chris Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi to combine for 489 innings in 2020 with a combined 4.0 WAR higher than the trio posted last season. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0 ... which is good news for a club trying to improve on an 84-win season that left the Sox 12 games behind the second Wild Card slot. However, regression works in both directions as evidenced by these 2019 WAR totals and Steamer 2020 WAR projections: C Christian Vazquez (3.5, 2.8) 1B Michael Chavez (0.7, 0.9)* 2B Jose Peraza (-0.6, 0.6)* SS Xander Bogaerts (6.8, 4.8) 3B Rafael Devers (5.9, 4.7) RF Mookie Betts (6.6, 6.6) CF Jackie Bradley Jr. (1.4, 2.0) LF Andrew Benintendi (2.0, 2.6) DH J.D. Martinez (3.2, 3.6) SP Chris Sale (3.6, 4.9) SP David Price (2.3, 2.6) SP Eduardo Rodriguez (3.7, 2.8) SP Nathan Eovaldi (1.9, 1.6) SP Martin Perez (1.9, 1.6)** RP Brandon Workman (2.1, 0.5) RP Matt Barnes (1.3, 1.0) * last season the Red Sox got a negative 0.4 fWAR from first base and 0.0 fWAR from second base ** last season Rick Porcello posted 1.8 fWAR for the Red Sox

Pure speculation, but consider this hypothetical: 1. Red Sox ownership interviewed three candidates to head up baseball operations 2. Two candidates said they were convinced the Red Sox could be contenders in 2020 while getting under the luxury tax threshold 3. The third candidate maintained the Red Sox could not be contenders in 2020 while getting under the luxury tax threshold 4. Red Sox ownership appreciated the candor of the third candidate, whom ownership then hired Or not.

That trade gives the Red Sox $32.6 million in surplus value and the Dodgers $5.3 million in negative value, according to Baseball Trade Values: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

To be realistic, many American League teams have improved so far this offseason. Within reported payroll constraints, the Red Sox hope to improve on an 84-win club that finished 12 games back of the second Wild Card slot. With the league's seventh-best record, the Sox were followed in order by the Rangers, White Sox and Angels, who have all made upgrades. In climbing to the top of the hill in 2018, the Red Sox have dug themselves into a hole for 2020 and perhaps beyond. Trying to contend in 2020 may only dig a deeper hole. Or not.

How did a thread with such an unappealing title draw responses totaling 63 pages ... and counting?

Because of fewer months of team control, Mookie Betts' trade value may go down as the Red Sox approach midseason. On a more positive note, the underwater contracts of David Price and Nathan Eovaldi should become more valuable because the trading partner would assume less of each player's negative value. Of course health and 2020 performance may have a greater impact on trade value.

We each come from different backgrounds. As an adolescent sportswriter I learned early on to never use a personal pronoun to associate myself with a team. I chuckle when forum posters respond with “you” in reference to the Seattle Mariners. But it’s all harmless.

Jake Marisnick, whom the Mets acquired via trade, can be traded at any time.

Does the AAV calculation reset after each opt-out decision (because only guaranteed salary counts)?

MLB Trade Rumors examines the pitching market: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/taking-stock-of-the-starting-pitching-market.html

Cincinnati’s signing of Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama could impact the market for Jackie Bradley Jr.: Or ... never mind.😊

David Price reportedly was upset about his third drug test this offseason:

Conversely, does Cot’s offer the best-case scenario?

Serous question: Why trust Cot’s over Spotrac (or vice versa)?

If the Red Sox were not concerned about the CBT penalties the Sox would have aimed higher than Jose Peraza and Martin Pérez so far this offseason.

The Red Sox can ill afford the status quo because of the luxury tax implications. That places the Sox at a disadvantage in relation to most clubs.

Potential trade partners have good reason to believe the Red Sox want to get under the luxury tax threshold, leaving the Sox in a difficult bargaining position. The status quo might be less acceptable to the Sox than to the trade partner.

Wil Myers could probably match Mitch Moreland’s production (although as a righthanded first baseman without Moreland’s pronounced platoon splits).

The Red Sox need to shed salary before they can add a three-year, $18 million contract for a player whose last team paid a $1 million buyout instead of exercising a 2020 team option for $7.5 million.

The intentional redundancy was a humble acknowledgement that it’s just one fan’s speculation. Or not. Thank you for the feedback.

The Red Sox have probably exchanged firm offers with multiple teams without reaching a meeting of the minds. Or not.

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier writes of the "short shell life" of a homegrown core: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/12/28/taking-closer-look-baseball-unusual-offseason/e5gtbQLYtEN6aKacuPuHAP/story.html?event=event25

As Nathan Eovaldi starts the 2020 season on the downside of his 30th birthday, the righthander could bounce back to the career ERA+ of 94 he's posted over parts of eight seasons (a marked improvement over the ERA+ of 81 Eovaldi posted in limited action this year).

2022

On the 100th anniversary of this deal, we can say some moves don't work out: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/12/babe-ruth-was-sold-by-red-sox-to-yankees-100-years-ago-this-day.html