harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Consider this comp of one-time All Star first basemen: Over the past three seasons Wil Myers posted 4.0 bWAR in 393 games while Mitch Moreland posted 4.1 bWAR in 364 games. Here are the 2020 Marcel projections for the 29-year-old Myers and the 34-year-old Moreland: WM 479 PA, .244/.322/.444/.765, 58 R, 19 HR, 55 RBI, 24 2B, 2 3B, 13 SB, 47 BB, 143 K MM 413 PA, .243/.320/.451/.771, 54 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 21 2B, 2 3B, 2 SB, 41 BB, 94 K https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/myerswi01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelmi01.shtml Of course the Red Sox would like to upgrade but that is a tall order if the Sox want to get under the luxury tax threshold.
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Wil Myers in his age 29, 30 and 31 seasons might be as productive as David Price in his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons. Or not. This year Price posted 2.3 fWAR and 1.8 bWAR while Myers posted 0.5 fWAR and a negative 0.3 bWAR. However, under the three previous seasons Price totaled 8.3 fWAR and 9.0 bWAR while Myers posted 6.0 fWAR and 7.8 bWAR. Given their ages, their WAR productions might be about to merge … or not.
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The Padres currently have an estimated 2020 payroll of only $150 million, according to Roster Resource: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres San Diego reportedly was in the market for an expensive Stephen Strasburg but with a trade of Wil Myers the Padres would land David Price for a net $9.5 million annually over three years. Jackie Bradley Jr. would cost a projected $11 million for a single season.
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Andrew Miller was a 29-year-old veteran approaching free agency when the Red Sox traded the lefthander to Baltimore in July 2014 for lefty prospect Eduardo Rodriguez.
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Baseball Trade Values gives a nearly dead-even assessment of this trade between the Red Sox and San Diego Padres: CF Jackie Bradley Jr. SP David Price for 1B/OF Wil Myers SP Anderson Espinoza CF Michael Gettys https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ The Red Sox would save about $27 million AAV for luxury tax purposes in 2020 (and $17+ million in 2021 and 2022). Gettys is a 24-year-old power-hitting center fielder who this year had 31 home runs and 91 RBI at Triple A despite a .251/.305/.517/.822 line in 551 plate appearances: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gettys000mic Of course Espinoza, who remains shy of his 22nd birthday, was a top Red Sox prospect who was traded to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz. Espinoza, who has not pitched since only months after the July 2016 trade, underwent his second Tommy John surgery last April. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=espino005and
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Baseball Trade Values calls the proposed trade only a Minor Overpay with the Red Sox getting a negative $13.8 million in value and the Dodgers a negative $10 million in value: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
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The screen shot in the Dodgers Nations piece is from MLB Tonight. Swihart is a poor reporter (but enthusiastic fan).
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https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-potential-mookie-betts-trade-package-discussed-on-mlb-network/2019/12/18/
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https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-potential-mookie-betts-trade-package-discussed-on-mlb-network/2019/12/18/
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The Red Sox, who finished 12 games out of the second Wild Card slot, had the lowest positive run differential in the league but indeed ranked seventh of the 15 American League teams in that category. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2019-standings.shtml
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Unlike many Red Sox fans, Chaim Bloom probably has the courage to abandon a goal of contention in 2020 in hopes of resetting the luxury tax calculation. The Sox were not particularly competitive this year and are currently about $29 million over the 2020 luxury tax threshold, according to Roster Resource: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/red-sox?season=2020
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Chaim Bloom presumably had a role in signing Jose Peraza and Martin Perez ... for better or worse, those signings were quantifiable.
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https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201905230.shtml
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The Dodgers probably think two years of 25-year-old shortstop Corey Seager is worth more than one year of 27-year-old outfielder Mookie Betts ... and the Baseball Trade Values simulator agrees: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
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The point was: To appease impatient fans, should Chaim Bloom accept that offer if it's the best offer to date? Of course not. Bloom probably has fielded multiple offers, some that remain standing and some that have been withdrawn. The fact that Bloom had not negotiated a major trade on December 18 should not be evidence that he is not doing his job.
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Perhaps that's precisely what Chaim Bloom is doing. Or not.
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So should Chaim Bloom trade Mookie Betts for Joc Pederson straight up to save the Red Sox $19 million for luxury tax purposes and to prove to impatient fans that he is on the job?
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Chaim Bloom has likely been asked to get under the luxury tax threshold while improving on an 84-win team that missed the postseason despite baseball's highest payroll. That's a tall order. Fans should probably cut Bloom some slack.
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The Seattle Mariners should take a chance.
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The trade simulator approves a trade of David Price (three years, $96 million) and Mookie Betts (one year, projected $27 million) for A.J. Pollock (three years, AAV $13.75 million) and four years of lefthander Julio Urias: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ The Dodgers would be adding about a net $45 million AAV to their 2020 budget for luxury tax purposes; the Red Sox would subtracting a corresponding amount. Perhaps not a realistic deal.
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Corey Seager alone has more surplus value than Mookie Betts, according to Baseball Trade Values. The Dodgers won’t trade Joc Pederson for the $96 million owed David Price.
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http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/designate-for-assignment
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The Yankees have designated for assignment 25-year-old righthander Chance Adams, who could play a cost-effective role with the Red Sox. Or not. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/yankees-announce-gerrit-cole-signing-designate-chance-adams.html
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Pull the trigger on what?