harmony

African Americans are not evenly distributed across MLB rosters. The Seattle Mariners opened the season with three African Americans in their starting rotation before Taijuan Walker was traded. Kyle Lewis and Justus Sheffield are Rookie of the Year candidates. This year J.P. Crawford ranked among baseball's top defensive shortstops. The Mariners opened the season with Shed Long at second base, Mallex Smith in right field and Carl Edwards Jr. in the bullpen but ended the season with Phil Ervin in right field. Dee Gordon was Seattle's nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award. On August 31 the Mariners acquired outfielder Taylor Trammell, the only Top 100 prospect dealt at the trade deadline.

Does it make any difference that this year Jackie Bradley Jr. was presumptively the only African American on a 40-man roster in a city with Boston's reputation? Not sure there's a good way to discuss the sensitive topic of race.

In a report that appeared Sunday, Jackie Bradley Jr. seemed diplomatically ambivalent about a return to the Red Sox: https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2020/09/27/jackie-bradley-jr-red-sox-last-game

An Over the Monster columnist writes that the Red Sox should re-sign Jackie Bradley Jr.: https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/10/1/21496652/boston-red-sox-offseason-jackie-bradley-jr-free-agency

It's curious that Baseball Trade Values lists Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi with a surplus value of $1.2 million with two years and $30 million left on his contract but lists Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager with a negative value $13.5 million with two years* and $33 million remaining on his contract: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/478/ Since the start of the 2019 season Kikuchi has posted 1.4 fWAR, valued at $10.8 million, in 41 starts covering 208.2 innings. Over the same period Seager has posted 4.5 fWAR, valued at $35.9 million, in 166 games: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yusei-kikuchi/20633/stats?position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-seager/9785/stats?position=3B * the 2022 club option of $15 million to $20 million becomes a player option if Seager is traded. Most speculate, perhaps erroneously, that Seager would exercise the player option. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/seattle-mariners/

Will the Pittsburgh Pirates be competitive during the remaining two years of team control over Jameson Taillon?

Jackie Bradley Jr. has never been able to duplicate his 2016 All Star season when he posted 5.3 fWAR, valued at $42.2 million: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackie-bradley-jr/12984/stats?position=OF Nevertheless, since then Bradley has posted 7.8 fWAR, valued at $62.6 million, in 479 games over four seasons. Bradley will likely command an annual salary of at least $8 million. FWIW this season Bradley was almost certainly the only African American on the Red Sox 40-man roster and SoxProspects lists only two African Americans on its Top 40 prospect list. Those factors may or may not be relevant to the franchise or to prospective signees.

Righthanded Pittsburgh starters Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams each have two years of team control on a Pirate club that is unlikely to compete in 2021. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=27&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate= Ben Cherington could dangle all in trade talks in hopes of building for the future.

Or in a trade for Alex Cobb the Red Sox could seek an immediate re-enforcement in the bullpen with 30-year-old Baltimore reliever Shawn Armstrong, who enters arbitration for the first time this offseason after posting an ERA of 1.80 in 15 innings this year with 14 strikeouts against only three walks. Baseball Trade Values values three years of Armstrong at only $400,000.

With payroll flexibility, the Red Sox could target an expensive starter with only one year left on a contract with a team that is not expected to contend in 2021. Potential targets: SP Alex Cobb ® BAL 2021 salary $15 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $11.2 million SP Danny Duffy (L) KC 2021 salary $15.5 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $9.7 miillion SP Jordan Lyles ® TEX 2021 salary $8 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $8 million If the Red Sox trade only a player or players of neutral net trade value, the trade partner could offset the negative trade value with a prospect or prospects to replenish the Sox farm system. Or not.

This year 24-year-old Seattle lefthander Nick Margevicius posted 0.6 fWAR in 10 appearances, including seven starts, covering 41.1 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nick-margevicius/20395/stats?position=P Compare the 2020 numbers for Red Sox pitchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

The Red Sox probably should not trade low on Andrew Benintendi for any of those pitchers. However, a trade of two years of Benintenti for five or six years of Seattle lefthander Nick Margevicius would give the Mariners a bridge with Kyle Lewis to highly ranked outfield prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Trammell. Baseball Prospectus ranked Kelenic and Rodriguez No. 7 and No, 10 overall this year and Trammell No. 11 a year ago. The lefthanded bat of Benintendi could join righthand-hitting Mitch Haniger and Kyle Lewis in the 2021 outfield as the prospects develop. Or not.

"The Twins aren’t carrying lefty Rich Hill due to the fact that he tossed 93 pitches in the regular season finale Sunday." https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/twins-set-wild-card-series-roster-buxton-active-donaldson-out.html

Should the spending be calculated over one year or over five years? A requirement that each team spend a minimum each year would be like forcing a person to live paycheck-to-paycheck, not saving money for the future. The Houston Astros had one a baseball's lowest payrolls for a few years but increased spending once the club's underpriced assets made the team competitive.

A team with enough underpriced assets can afford to enter a free agent market that produces -- on the average -- a poor return on investment.

The dollar amount for 2021 probably is not as important as the obligations that could hamstring the franchise in later years.

Baseball Trade Values provides not only entertainment but an interesting player comp. BTV values four years of Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo at $62.3 million and five years of Seattle outfielder Kyle Lewis at $20 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9657/ https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8698/ This season Verdugo and Lewis each posted 1.7 fWAR with a wRC+ of 126: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-verdugo/17027/stats?position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-lewis/19508/stats?position=OF Verdugo, who is 10 months younger than Lewis, had a BABIP of .371 with a 7.7 percent walk rate and 20.4 percent strikeout rate. Lewis had a BABIP of .341 with a 14.0 percent walk rate and a 29.3 strikeout rate. Advanced metrics gave Verdugo the edge on defense with a UZR/150 of 13.5 with seven DRS while Lewis had a UZR/150 of a negative 4.1 with a negative three DRS. Verdugo peaked at No. 35 (2019) and Lewis at No. 34 (2017) on Baseball America Top 100 prospect lists. A character issue has followed Verdugo while injuries sidelined Lewis early in his professional career. It will be interesting to follow their careers going forward.

What the Red Sox did in 2013 was like someone spending two hours with the slot machines and coming away with $300. That does not make play on the slot machines a good investment. The odds will always favor the house. Likewise the odds favor the players, not the team, in free agency.

The Red Sox quandary is that upgrades are perilous through this year's lackluster free agent class but the Sox lack the personnel currency to upgrade significantly through trades. But Chaim Bloom might be the executive to pull it off. Or not.

The PTBNL in the Osich trade could be the PTBNL in Workman/Hembree trade. Or not.

Impressive post. No sarcasm intended.

The cash (and possible PTBNL) in the Workman/Hembree trade go the other way to the Phillies: The PTBNL in the Osich trade has not been reported.

Here's hoping your day improves.

Add SP Rick Porcello ®

Check out the video of Kyle Seager's two-run "single" on Monday: MLB Gameday: Astros 1, Mariners 6 Final Score (09/21/2020) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Astros vs. Mariners at T-Mobile Park