harmony

Of the top six qualified catchers in fWAR over the past three seasons, four have been traded during that period: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate= Of the top 30 catchers with at least 100 plate appearances over the past three seasons, a majority have been traded: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

This year Cleveland righthander Carlos Carrasco has posted 1.4 fWAR in 11 starts covering 62 innings while Nathan Eovaldi has posted 0.6 fWAR in eight starts covering 42.1 innings. Eovaldi has made more than 30 starts in a season only once (way back in 2014) while Carrasco has made at least 30 starts three times. Over the past two seasons Carrasco has tossed 142 innings in 34 appearances, including 23 starts, while Eovaldi has pitched 110 innings in 31 appearances, including 20 starts.

An overreliance on free agent contracts could hamstring a franchise for years ... unless the team can flip the players for prospects when the club falls out of contention.

The Red Sox have lost Mookie Betts, Rick Porcello, David Price, Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt and Brandon Workman from a 2019 club that won 84 games. Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi have question marks. The prognoses for Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez are unclear and Jackie Bradley Jr. may depart as a free agent. Chaim Bloom has done admirable job landing Alex Verdugo and Martin Perez (not to mention Kevin Plawecki, Christian Arroyo and Jonathan Arauz). Despite flashes from Bobby Dalbec and Tanner Houck, Bloom has a long ways to go to reach the talent level of the 2019 team.

To state the obvious: Many are surprised that the Red Sox did not land a pitcher in the Mookie Betts trade.

Going from 20-34 to "over the top" is a tall order with a shallow starting rotation topped by three question marks. Or not.

Brusdar Graterol has made 20 appearances for the Dodgers this year but his only two starts came as an opener when the righthander went 1 and 1.1 innings, respectively: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=gratebr01&t=p&year=2020

What could the Red Sox offer for Seattle righthander Justin Dunn, who Sunday tossed his fifth quality start in nine outings this season? The Boston College product, who turns 25 on Tuesday, had a shutout going until surrendering a three-run homer with two outs in the sixth inning. No match is obvious.

Gerrit Cole (8+ years), Domingo German (3+ year). Sean Manaea (2+ years), Zach Eflin (2+ years), Luke Weaver (3+ years). Good luck finding a trade partner looking for quantity over quality.

Baseball Trade Values gives Nathan Eovaldi a value of a negative $18.9 million and Christian Vazquez a value of a positive $14.4 million, for a net negative $4.5 million. A negative $4.5 million places the trade value in the ballpark of Dallas Keuchel (three-plus years), Michael Pineda (one-plus years), Danny Duffy (one-plus years) and Yusei Kikuchi (two-plus years): https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/

What team can afford a pitching downgrade to Nathan Eovaldi and receive only Christian Vazquez as a sweetener.? Needing quantity as well as quality in the starting rotation, the Red Sox are likely to retain Eovaldi. Depending on medical updates between now and December 2, the Sox may not tender Eduardo Rodriguez a 2021 contract working off his 2020 salary of $8.3 million.

Who would be attractive candidates for those contracts (six years, $96 million; five years, $45 million)? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html

Will the Red Sox tender Eduardo Rodriguez a 2021 contract working off his 2020 salary of $8.3 million? Much will depend on the medical updates between now and non-tender deadline (which may still be December 2). .https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/09/eduardo-rodriguez-boston-red-sox-starter-may-not-have-full-workload-in-2021-you-lose-a-lot-when-youve-been-down-as-long-as-he-has.html https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf Last offseason the Red Sox beat Rodriguez in arbitration when the three-arbitrator panel went with the team's $8.3 million salary over the lefthander's salary submission of $8.975 million. https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/02/boston-red-sox-defeat-eduardo-rodriguez-in-arbitration-lefty-will-earn-83-million-in-2020.html MLB Trade Rumors had projected Rodriguez with a 2020 salary of $9.5 million. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

Updated stats: With his solid start Thursday, this season Nathan Eovaldi has posted 0.6 fWAR in eight starts covering 42.1 innings. Yusei Kikuchi has posted 1.1 fWAR in seven starts covering 37 innings as the lefthander awaits his eighth start tonight. bWAR tells a different story this season, giving Eovaldi 0.9 bWAR and Kikuchi 0.0 bWAR. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eovalna01.shtml#all_pitching_value https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kikucyu01.shtml#all_pitching_value

One Nathan Eovaldi comp might be Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi. Or not. Kikuchi signed a multiyear free agent contract less than one month after Eovaldi signed his multiyear free agent contract in the 2018-19 offseason. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Kikuchi signed for four years and $56 million with complicated options through 2025. Eovaldi's contract is for four years and $68 million. Kikuchi, who is 16 months younger than Eovaldi, has posted 1.4 fWAR in 39 starts and 198.2 innings since joining the Mariners. Entering Thursday's solid start, Eovaldi had posted 0.1 fWAR in 30 appearances, including 19 starts, in 105 innings. This season Kikuchi has posted 1.1 fWAR over 37 innings in seven starts while, entering Thursday's game, Eovaldi had posted 0.3 fWAR over 37.1 innings in seven starts. Each pitcher has generally disappointed since signing a free agent contract. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yusei-kikuchi/20633/stats?position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathan-eovaldi/9132/stats?position=P

I did not intend to call out the most revered poster on this forum. My apologies. Be well.

On an Over the Monster podcast, Corey Kluber was mentioned as a potential Red Sox target: https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/9/15/21437623/boston-red-sox-podcast-bobby-dalbec-tanner-houck-free-agency

As recently as mid-July Kimmi wrote that "ERod will be like our trade deadline acquisition to put us over the top." https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19719-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-II/page55 https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19719-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-II/page58

That has been the familiar refrain of some Red Sox fans the last two seasons.

Indeed. That 89-win Seattle team in 2018 had a remarkable Pythagorean record of 77-85: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2018.shtml BTW this year 24-year-old Seattle lefthander Justus Sheffield has posted 1.3 fWAR in 44.1 innings while 31-year-old Yankee lefthander James Paxton has posted 0.3 fWAR in 20.1 innings.

Seattle's current record of 22-26 (.458) is empirically better than the Red Sox record in 2020 (17-31, .354), 2014 (71-91, .438), 2012 (69-93, .457) and 1992 (73-89, .451). https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/ The Mariners have only once posted a winning percentage lower than the Red Sox current .354 at 17-31. In their second season the Mariners posted a 56-104 (.350) record in 1978. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/ We can agree that the Red Sox have been the far more successful franchise since the inception of the Mariners in 1977.

After being projected to finish a distant last in the AL West again, the Seattle Mariners are in third place, closer to the second-place Astros than to the fourth-place Angels. With baseball's youngest roster, the Mariners are 14-7 since August 20. Mariner fans still have moments to cheer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCR56BOvqWw

A comparative progression: 2018: Boston 108-54 (.667); Seattle: 89-73 (.549) 2019: Boston 84-78 (.519); Seattle 68-94 (.420) 2020: Boston 17-31 (.354); Seattle 22-26 (.458) Coming off an 89-win season in 2018, the Seattle Mariners made the difficult decision to "step back" in light of the daunting forecasts for the Houston Astros and the Oakland Athletics. The Mariners jettisoned Edwin Diaz, James Paxton, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano and Mike Zunino, who had combined for 16.0 fWAR in 2018. The Red Sox must assess their chances of competing in 2021 against the likes of the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.

FWIW Trevor Bauer was given the most attention in the 2019 book The MVP Machine: How Baseball's New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik: https://www.powells.com/book/mvp-machine-how-baseballs-new-nonconformists-are-using-data-to-build-better-players-9781541698949

Unless Trevor Bauer's stance has changed since February 2019: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2019/02/14/trevor-bauer-Guardians-contracts-free-agent/2874691002/ Perhaps Bauer, who enters free agency for the first time this offseason, will want to sign with the Mariners because the righthander trains in the offseason at Driveline Baseball in Seattle: Or not.