harmony

Jackie Bradley Jr. has never been able to duplicate his 2016 All Star season when he posted 5.3 fWAR, valued at $42.2 million: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackie-bradley-jr/12984/stats?position=OF Nevertheless, since then Bradley has posted 7.8 fWAR, valued at $62.6 million, in 479 games over four seasons. Bradley will likely command an annual salary of at least $8 million. FWIW this season Bradley was almost certainly the only African American on the Red Sox 40-man roster and SoxProspects lists only two African Americans on its Top 40 prospect list. Those factors may or may not be relevant to the franchise or to prospective signees.

Righthanded Pittsburgh starters Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams each have two years of team control on a Pirate club that is unlikely to compete in 2021. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=27&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate= Ben Cherington could dangle all in trade talks in hopes of building for the future.

Or in a trade for Alex Cobb the Red Sox could seek an immediate re-enforcement in the bullpen with 30-year-old Baltimore reliever Shawn Armstrong, who enters arbitration for the first time this offseason after posting an ERA of 1.80 in 15 innings this year with 14 strikeouts against only three walks. Baseball Trade Values values three years of Armstrong at only $400,000.

With payroll flexibility, the Red Sox could target an expensive starter with only one year left on a contract with a team that is not expected to contend in 2021. Potential targets: SP Alex Cobb ® BAL 2021 salary $15 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $11.2 million SP Danny Duffy (L) KC 2021 salary $15.5 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $9.7 miillion SP Jordan Lyles ® TEX 2021 salary $8 million, Baseball Trade Values value of a negative $8 million If the Red Sox trade only a player or players of neutral net trade value, the trade partner could offset the negative trade value with a prospect or prospects to replenish the Sox farm system. Or not.

This year 24-year-old Seattle lefthander Nick Margevicius posted 0.6 fWAR in 10 appearances, including seven starts, covering 41.1 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nick-margevicius/20395/stats?position=P Compare the 2020 numbers for Red Sox pitchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

The Red Sox probably should not trade low on Andrew Benintendi for any of those pitchers. However, a trade of two years of Benintenti for five or six years of Seattle lefthander Nick Margevicius would give the Mariners a bridge with Kyle Lewis to highly ranked outfield prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Trammell. Baseball Prospectus ranked Kelenic and Rodriguez No. 7 and No, 10 overall this year and Trammell No. 11 a year ago. The lefthanded bat of Benintendi could join righthand-hitting Mitch Haniger and Kyle Lewis in the 2021 outfield as the prospects develop. Or not.

"The Twins aren’t carrying lefty Rich Hill due to the fact that he tossed 93 pitches in the regular season finale Sunday." https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/twins-set-wild-card-series-roster-buxton-active-donaldson-out.html

Should the spending be calculated over one year or over five years? A requirement that each team spend a minimum each year would be like forcing a person to live paycheck-to-paycheck, not saving money for the future. The Houston Astros had one a baseball's lowest payrolls for a few years but increased spending once the club's underpriced assets made the team competitive.

A team with enough underpriced assets can afford to enter a free agent market that produces -- on the average -- a poor return on investment.

The dollar amount for 2021 probably is not as important as the obligations that could hamstring the franchise in later years.

Baseball Trade Values provides not only entertainment but an interesting player comp. BTV values four years of Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo at $62.3 million and five years of Seattle outfielder Kyle Lewis at $20 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9657/ https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8698/ This season Verdugo and Lewis each posted 1.7 fWAR with a wRC+ of 126: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-verdugo/17027/stats?position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-lewis/19508/stats?position=OF Verdugo, who is 10 months younger than Lewis, had a BABIP of .371 with a 7.7 percent walk rate and 20.4 percent strikeout rate. Lewis had a BABIP of .341 with a 14.0 percent walk rate and a 29.3 strikeout rate. Advanced metrics gave Verdugo the edge on defense with a UZR/150 of 13.5 with seven DRS while Lewis had a UZR/150 of a negative 4.1 with a negative three DRS. Verdugo peaked at No. 35 (2019) and Lewis at No. 34 (2017) on Baseball America Top 100 prospect lists. A character issue has followed Verdugo while injuries sidelined Lewis early in his professional career. It will be interesting to follow their careers going forward.

What the Red Sox did in 2013 was like someone spending two hours with the slot machines and coming away with $300. That does not make play on the slot machines a good investment. The odds will always favor the house. Likewise the odds favor the players, not the team, in free agency.

The Red Sox quandary is that upgrades are perilous through this year's lackluster free agent class but the Sox lack the personnel currency to upgrade significantly through trades. But Chaim Bloom might be the executive to pull it off. Or not.

The PTBNL in the Osich trade could be the PTBNL in Workman/Hembree trade. Or not.

Impressive post. No sarcasm intended.

The cash (and possible PTBNL) in the Workman/Hembree trade go the other way to the Phillies: The PTBNL in the Osich trade has not been reported.

Here's hoping your day improves.

Add SP Rick Porcello ®

Check out the video of Kyle Seager's two-run "single" on Monday: MLB Gameday: Astros 1, Mariners 6 Final Score (09/21/2020) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Astros vs. Mariners at T-Mobile Park

Four of: CF Jackie Bradley Jr. SP Jake Odorizzi ® SP Michael Wacha ® RP Kelvin Herrera ® RP Nick Vincent ® RP Luis Avilan (L) Red Sox exec Chaim Bloom may resist the temptation to become immediately competitive in 2021. Or not.

That's why teams use advanced defensive metrics such as those provided at Statcast.

The Cincinnati Reds reportedly think Trevor Bauer is a fit: Trevor Bauer on future with Reds WWW.MLB.COM Trevor Bauer has dominated on the mound this season and has the chance of becoming the first Reds pitcher to win the National League Cy Young Award. Bauer also performed his best as Cincinnati battled for a playoff spot and did it in his walk-year ahead of becoming a first-time

On the topic of fits, Trevor Bauer's reported desire to pitch every fourth day fits well with the reported desire of Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi, a product of Japan's six-man-rotation, one-start-a-week system: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2020/09/22/cincinnati-reds-notes-trevor-bauer-happy-pitch-short-rest-mlb/5867831002/ http://www.ussmariner.com/2019/01/04/yusei-kikuchi-and-the-ms-pitching-plan/

Trevor Bauer trains in the offseason at Driveline Baseball in Seattle: ... and is familiar with at least one member of the Seattle Mariner rotation: After shedding big contracts, the Mariners have payroll flexibility: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P55um0jB8gsz4M2Q7hFeD6aFki7n74DBC1tsWXwoD5U/edit#gid=1520401900 The righthanded Bauer would complement three returning lefthanded Seattle starters who this year have posted 1.7 fWAR in 10 starts, 1.4 fWAR in nine starts and 1.1 fWAR in nine starts: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate= https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate= With team options, the Mariners control southpaws Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Yusei Kikuchi through the 2025 season. One downside is that a resulting rotation reshuffling could block the progress of righthanded Seattle prospects Emerson Hancock, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, who currently are ranked No. 31, No. 36 and No. 100 in MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list: Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball Another option might be righthander Taijuan Walker, who last offseason as a non-tendered free agent chose to return to Seattle despite a dismal 2020 forecast for the Mariners. Bauer and Walker. Or not.

A sarcasm emoji was needed on my post.