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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    Tough to say. We were two months of cancelled games into the season when he finally signed. If the Dodgers were the goal, he certainly strung them along for a while…
  2. notin
    Well, you never studied law. (Frequent Bugs Bunny joke.)
  3. notin
    DFA Brasier and bring up a starter. Coming into the game, Brasier was in the bottom 2% in MLB in exit velocity allowed. He’s not good and hasn’t been for a long time now…
  4. notin
    An absolute favorite in the Notin household…
  5. notin
    Why does it matter if the results justify my opinion? Whether I’m right or wrong, no one is going to hold me accountable or give me credit. Bloom does have on trait he shares with Dombrowski, Cherington and Epstein and probably even Heywood Sullivan before him; he doesn’t care what I think. I do think Lou Gorman cared. Not much. Just a little. But it mattered to me…
  6. notin
    For someone who constantly states unsupported theories shouldn’t be criticized as their opinions, I’d think this is right up your alley. Bellhorn is just asking what any of us would sign Eovaldi for. He’s going to sign somewhere for something, and it’s 105% likely to not be any figures used on this board. That doesn’t make any of us - even you - wrong….
  7. notin
    Go Celtics!
  8. notin
    Not looking good for me this week vs the Yankee fan…
  9. notin
    And most have said 3 or 4 years at $X per year. Which leads to the next question - what does Eovaldi want? And do our wishes and his wishes align? I do think 3 years is fine, but not more. I doubt Eovaldi feels the same…
  10. notin
    Either Seabold or Winckowski should be in Boston right now. Houck just isn’t a starter and neither is some high profile 22yo prospect where service time is even a concern. Give one a chance! It’s free! The only cost is a bus ticket to Worcester for Kutter Crawford, which doesn’t even have to be a one way ticket..
  11. notin
    And yet the team was still two games from a World Series. What does that say about the importance of a W-L record for an ace?
  12. notin
    If the reason for not extending a player for one year is not knowing what the team will look like, why sign or extend anyone? Extending Eovaldi (or anyone) does partially answer that question…
  13. notin
    And they should shrug at W-L records. Eovaldi’s record is cutler 1-1. If that was representative of his actual talent, this thread wouldn’t exist…
  14. notin
    Rick Porcello ruined it for you? The league just might not be around to paying for it like they do (the actually less telling) ERA. But then within our lifetimes, we saw MLB ownership pay for RBI as if that was part of the skill set. Just because it’s not valued yet doesn’t mean it will never be valuable…
  15. notin
    As we might be seeing with Bogaerts and Eovaldi, some players ask for the moon to avoid free agency when this close. Get them early and there are more risks, you can get a good deal. But waiting too long turns free agency a viable backup plan into an effective bargaining chip. Like when JD Martinez was in AZ. In half a year there, he became an absolute legend. When extension talks came, his agent asked for $200 mill. AZ walked. Boras than showed the rest of ownship his huge treatise about why the King King of Slug was worth $200mill. And no one bought it. JD had to “settle” for a paltry 5 year $125mill. Will we see the same scenario with Bogaerts and Eovaldi? And then will fans think whatever they get was the demand all along?
  16. notin
    Bednar is a closer. Not saying it’s not a need, but I am saying he’s not an alternative to Eovaldi…
  17. notin
    And as probably the most vocal critic of the Eovaldi deal, my issue was never about talent. Eovaldi is in the 4th year of a contract and has performed with an ERA+ of 113 on this deal. But he’s also only thrown 286 IP in the 2.3 seasons before this, carries a lengthy injury history, and might be pricing himself into the 5 year $110 mill range. Gausman is a good comp. Both were late bloomers. Eovaldi is a year older but also a better pitcher. Would you be in for 5 years? Bear in mind this team still control Sale for 2 more years at $55mill total / $25mill AAV…
  18. notin
    Betts clearly wanted out of Boston, or at least to try free agency. There is no GM in Sox history more willing to spend heavily and meet a player’s demands than Dave Dombrowski, an honor he holds in multiple organizations. And even he couldn’t keep Betts here. If Dombrowski was unable to keep him in Boston, it’s very likely because nobody would have been able to…
  19. notin
    I would take my chances with alternatives. The Sox are loaded at middle infield with prospects, and really, how many do we need? In the right deal, Nick Yorke is absolutely available IMO...
  20. notin
    And as for trades, while very few GMs talk to me about who is available, certainly there are a few teams you must have noticed that are pumping out MLB-caliber arms left ad right but not so much with the position prospects. (Although I am flabbergasted - yes flabbergasted - that neither Montas nor Manaea made it to Boston.) Most notably, Miami and Cleveland. And one of the most talented arms in Miami might be the one most easily available in Elieser Hernandez. His injuries make him somewhat of a risk, but Miami's incredible (and growing) pitching depth makes him all but expendable. BTV gives him a surpolus value of $5.2million (or, roughly, Matthew Lugo), but this is probably because most of the sites projecting his performance don't anticipate him playing much, thus keeping his fWAR down. I do imagine he would cost more than that. But if he stays healthy, he would be an absolute steal overa wide range of prices...
  21. notin
    Gausman has been outstanding. But do you really think he will be for 5 years. He’s another one where 2021 (4.8 fWAR) looked a lot like an outlier. But if you think he and Eovaldi are both late bloomers, do you think Eovaldi should get a 5 yea nine figure contract? Gausman got one and his pre-2021 wasn’t any better than Eovaldi’s. So we can safely assume at least one GM would give Eovaldi 5 years / $110mill. Should Boston be that team?
  22. notin
    The risks with free agency are just much greater. At least for the top tier players. And the risks are in the years. The whole premise of this thread shows this. Not one person has selected more than 4 years. And the big issue is a lot of people are looking at the Eovaldi Glass and saying “it’s been half full lately.” Even the normally sardonic 5Gold tried to paint the rosiest picture possible of Eovaldi, calling him the Sox best pitcher of the last 3years. Sure, if you like thinking 2020 is some sort of equal representative. And if you assume he finishes 2021 still holding that title. The reality is, it was a way to try desperately to not make 2021 look like an outlier. The problem is, that’s exactly what it was. 5.6 fWAR season for a 31yo pitcher who never topped 3.3 fWAR before (and that was from 8 years ago). It would be very unwise for the Sox to even go to 4 years with Eovaldi, let alone 4 or 5. And to say “there’s no one else” is just a justification, not a reason…
  23. notin
    As Tom Jones would say “It’s not unusual. It was f***ing stupid to sign an injured pitcher to a five-year nine figure contract.” Or something like that. He’s not the best lyricist, but sometimes he does hit the nail on the head…
  24. notin
    I forgot. You like to go cheap at closer
  25. notin
    The safest guideline seems to be fewest years. Even Eovaldi is straight up Recency Effect. His 2019 was awful. He was good in 2020, but he was limited to 9 starts and 48 IP. Not really the best year to evaluate anybody. (Even you, JD.) And he was outstanding in 2021. So at what point did he become “excellent”? For one season plus 88 IP on a 4 year deal? And if he was excellent, why only 4 years? This is his last real contract. What if he wants six? And Sale produced great on the seasons the Sox traded him for. His 5 year extension has been a complete payroll albatross…
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