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My new campaign when they make me Commissioner - harmonize batting averages. I don’t get why I can go to baseball-reference and see that Cy Young won 1892 ERA title when that stat didn’t even exist at that time. Or why I can see Wilcy Moore lead the ‘27 Yankees in saves some 40 years before the save was conceived. But no one can go back through the 1930 through 1954 seasons and re-calculate the batting average without sac flies. I mean, have you ever thought what it took to back fill the save data all the way back? To go thru every box score and see if there was a save? And what version of the save rule did they use? This update would be peanuts in comparison…

Hey I’ve been saying “still hope” all off-season! I’m not surprised WAR changes. But it’s not unique to that stat. In 2010, I watched an Orioles-White Sox game that started with a ceremony honoring Jim Gentile for winning the 1961 RBI crown, something a change in the stats gave him earlier that week. (The Orioles also honored Gentile’s 1961 contractual clause and awarded him a $5,000 bonus for winning the RBI crown.) Hack Wilson also saw his record-setting RBI total jump from 190 to 191. Or he would have seen it happen if he hasn’t died 50 years earlier. So I’m not surprised WAR changes…

Just admit it was surprising to find out ERod had better WAR than Eovaldi over that stretch. I admit I was surprised, although it made more sense once I realized ERod only pitched 46 fewer innings over that four year stretch. If you tried to qualify it with “lead the team in WAR for all pitchers who pitched in each of those seasons”, someone, possibly not me, would have said “soooo… more WAR than Brasier?” I don’t think anyone else would have qualified. And yes, similar WAR numbers aren’t definitive. But the leader in WAR is. Just because ERod had 0.3 more bWAR than Eovaldi didn’t mean he was a better pitcher. But it does mean he has more bWAR. And we as fans get this nitpicky with lots and lots of stats. For example, what did batting average tell you? For me, it tells me 95% of the league gets a hit in the range of 20% to 30% of their at bats. Not a big range, but we sure as heck that out like one. Sometimes down to too much detail. For example, in 1949, Ted Williams lead the AL in home runs and RBI. But not in batting average, which he lost to George Kell by .0002. Why? What was the point? Why did MLB suddenly decide they needed four decimal places? And did anyone think Kell was a better hitter? Williams got no credit for a triple crown that year, and a difference that small could have been a grounder that should have been an error (on a Kell hit). Or one that shouldn’t have been for Williams. Or a miscall at first base. Or maybe even a runner getting thrown out trying to score on a flyball? Is it possible Williams lost out on a triple crown because the Sox had a slower runner on third base? Does that somehow make Ted a worse hitter? Would we look at him as even better if he got that third triple crown? (The sac fly scenario described above was not possible in 1949, as that was within the timeframe when MLB credited hitters with an at bat for sac flies, a rule they changed back in 1954. But it’s weird to think under today’s rules, it is a possibility.) But the stats are what they are. Kell still reigns as the 1949 batting champion. (Fix that, Manfred!!) And ERod had more bWAR than Eovaldi during that 4 year stretch…

Looking at this again, it does provide an area that needs some clarity. Eovaldi pitched two more seasons, but he missed some time. And 2020 happened. Still he started 73 games and pitched 407 IP to get his 6.9 bWAR. (Plus minimal relief work). In that same stretch, ERod missed two seasons but still made 65 starts and threw 361 IP for his 7.2 bWAR. So the workload was closer than I implied. But ERod still lead the team in bWAR.

I was using fWAR and bWAR. These are cumulative stats. Missing seasons hurts From 2019 through 2021, ERod had 7.2 bWAR. 5.5 in 2019, 1.7 in 2021. 0.0 in the other two years. For a total of 7.2 bWAR Inyhise same years, Eovaldi had -0.1, 1.2, 4.3 and 1.5 bWAR respectively. This gives him 6.9 bWAR total. Similar things happen if you look at fWAR. ERod had more despite only pitching two years. I suppose when I said “any metric”, that was misleading; I specifically meant bWAR and fWAR. The only numbers I cited were from those stats. ERod certainly had worse attendance than Eovaldi, but he also outpitched throughout that stretch if you use WAR (either one) as any evaluation technique…

Not what happened. 5Gold posted one stat about Eovaldi. (That Eovaldi lead the Sox starters in WAR from 2019-2022.) I looked it up and it’s simply not true. (ERod had more fWAR and bWAR in that 4 year stretch.) That’s not someone reveling in one stat; that’s someone mistakenly citing misleading data and clinging to it as if it’s going to magically come true if he believes hard enough and disparages any doubters.

Are you even reading my posts? I never mentioned AAV. I wasn’t splitting hairs. Your post was flat out wrong. ERod had more WAR than Eovaldi over that four year stretch, despite only pitching in 2 years of it. Why is that so hard to grasp? ERod had more fWAR than Eovaldi from 2019-2022. Also more bWAR. This wasn’t about him having the single season largest WAR. (In fact, his fWARs were not as large as Eovaldi’s single season in 2019). This isn’t semantics. Your statement was flat out wrong. Go look up some numbers and see for yourself. Dewey don’t need to name names. Everyone knew he meant me. I don’t care. But at what point do you even try to remember you first jumped on my post to correct it? You didn’t make that comment about Eovaldi’s WAR unprovoked…

I didn’t do that. I just refuted the statement that Eovaldi lead the team in WAR for the span of his contract. No commentary at all about ERod beyond that…

ERod was on the team for 3 years, but didn’t pitch in 2020 due to COVID and myocarditis…

Eovaldi was amazing in 2021. He deserved the Cy Young that year. Or at least better than 4th place in the voting. He was good in 2020. But also - 9 starts. Certainly cannot and will not hold that against him, but can't weight it equal to the other 3 years either. But in 2019, he was awful. In 2022 he was not good. And if you did not like the Sox pitching staff in 2023, the following starting pitchers from 2023 received as much or more fWAR than Eovaldi in 2022 (1.0) as starters: Kutter Crawford (2.2), Chris Sale (2.1), Brayan Bello (1.6), Tanner Houck (1.2), James Paxton (1.0), Nick Pivetta (1.0). (fWAR data is as a starter only) If you truly believe the 2023 Sox starting staff was a nightmare, then you also shouldn't praise Eovaldi for 2022. Or in 2019...

Playoff hero? Sure. So was Josh Beckett. Did that justify his contract extension? David Price was effective in the 2018 postseason. Does that mean his contract was worth it?

If you received that statement from baseball-reference, it is a huge hit to their credibility. Because it is blatantly not a fact. Over four years (2019-2022), Eovaldi was worth 7.3 fWAR/7.0 bWAR. Eduardo Rodriguez (2019, 2021) was worth 7.4 fWAR/7.2 bWAR. ERod only pitched 2 seasons in that stretch and accrued more WAR (by either metric) than Eovaldi did in four. So now that we have established Eovaldi did not lead the team in WAR over that stretch, does it change your opinion of that contract?

Your point works the opposite of your theory. The weak value in the minors devalues the team. Anyone buying the team would need to invest in pitching if the goal was to be competitive. Otherwise Henry is trying to sell a house with the sales pitch “it should be fine once you get a new foundation.” A Henry sale is a Fan Fantasy. And people are trying to make everything look like that’s the obvious plan. Force those pieces to fit!!

Unless Chris Young is bluffing!!

$90mill over 4? That’s an insulting offer! Just ask Bogaerts!

Really his contract was carried by 2021. He was good in 2020, but an abbreviated season reduces the risk of his biggest flaw. In 2022, he was worth 1.0 fWAR. In about half as many innings, Bello was worth 1.3 fWAR. Schreiber and Whitlock, also both with many fewer innings, had more fWAR than Eovaldi. The only pitchers with at least 10 starts and less fWAR than Eovaldi were Crawford and Winckowski - two rookies. He really wasn’t that good that year…

So you’re saying Eovaldi was good because Sale was injured? Eovaldi gave the Sox 2 seasons on a 4 year deal, one which was 60 games long. He accused 7.4 fWAR in his 4 seasons, with 5.7 fWAR coming in 2021. And he never topped 1.0 fWAR in any other season. I might just consider him unlucky, but he entered the deal with a very significant injury history, so this outcome was about as surprising as a daily sunrise in the east. I don’t think this deal is a success simply because he outperformed Chris Mazza. Not to mention, his leaving the team in fWAR over 4 years would be worth more of there were a few other names on the team for that entire stretch. Really the only other starter for all 4 years was Sale, whom he only beat because Sale pitched less often…

And instead just extended all the younger players?

1. Trading has always worked better. 2. Gray was a top option who settled on a 3 year deal. I don’t think Montgomery goes so short. 3. Nate’s extension worked out? That’s debatable. The brevity of the 2020 season does work in his favor, but overall he gave the Sox one elite season, one very poor season and one season shortened by injury. He only topped 109 IP once. And that’s not some lofty total. Lackey, too, had some good years but he gave some bad ones. I seriously doubt anyone was happy with him after he’d been with the Sox for three seasons. Not to mention, you’re only looking at Red Sox free agents. Free agency itself makes little sense. The process boils down to giving raises to aging and declining players that had their best years for another team. You can’t acknowledge that players’ peak years are ages 28-32, and then condone free agency as a primary shopping ground when most of the options are already over 30 (in some cases, well over 30) and expecting multiple years. The whole process odd best used to fill gaps on short term deals…

Anyone they invite to play behind Pedro Ciriaco?

Two thoughts: 1. Splurging on free agent starting pitching has rarely worked out in the past. Not just for Boston, either. 2. Not going all in on Monthomery and/or Snell might mean as little as the Sox are not huge fans Montgomery and/or Snell.

And on days of split squad games, I’m not so sure they have too many other options…

We think the Sox are being cheap. But I don’t think that “reputation” hurts them in negotiating. It’s not like if they had made the same offer to Yamamoto that the Dodgers had, the pitcher and his agent would have been thinking “wait. They’re being cheap! That’s what they do.” The issue is they don’t make the offers. At least that’s what it looks like to me…

I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. What is their reputation? They likely have not made competitive offers. They’ve probably overcommitted to the wrong players. But I don’tj get what you mean…

What is the perception in the industry? Not being in it myself, I don’t know. But as moon pointed out, they extended Devers, signed Story, and Yoshida. Not to mention lots of small term deals to players like Giolito, Jansen, Martin, Duvall, Kluber, etc. The Sox are still 11th in payroll per sportrac. That same source has the Dodgers 8th in payroll. Granted they could and maybe should be higher. But there is certainly some spending. And there are still options left for this season waiting for deals…