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I like last 3 seasons an evaluation. But it makes using bWAR tough. But if you like bWAR, Nola has been worth 0.018 bWAR/IP over the last 3 years. Stroman has been worth 0.017 bWAR/IP over the last 3 years. Surprisingly close. Of course, Nola has pitched 125 more IP over that stretch…

As I keep saying, the off-season isn’t over yet. And they’re more to baseball than just bringing in big names. Soxprospects still thinks the Sox will add two pitchers and a right fielder. So they’re more optimistic than even me. (But at least they stopped mentioning Paxton by name.) My sources (re: Google) tell me the Sox are still linked to Teoscar Hernandez and Marcus Stroman. Like these players or not, both do make the 2024 team upgraded over the 2023 team. I’m not big on Teoscar, whom I’ve always thought of as a question mark defensively, especially in RF. And DRS and OAA agree with me. But you know who doesn’t? UZR! UZR liked him as a RF. With Bloom, this might be a deal breaker. Bloom was a clear believer in DRS (when evaluating defense, which he did not do 100% of the time). But with Breslow? Clearly he’s not so dedicated to that one metric, if he is at all.

This off-season is far too f***ed up if Old Red and I keep making multiple posts in which we agree with each other…

Right. We should use our intellect for much greater purposes, like complaining about how a baseball team is run on an Internet forum completely separated from any audience that could react in a positive to such negativity. Catharsis is useful, but don’t confuse it with meaningful protest…

Agreed.

Snell has 21.1 career bWAR, 13.1 of which have come in TWO SEASONS. Are we basing everything solely on 2023 now? If so, Nola had 2.1 bWAR, which is less than Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford. Does that make them aces? (I’ve never called Nola s*****. I do think he is overrated. He’s had 2 seasons of 2.5 bWAR or less in the past 3 years. He’s might be gravitating towards being average.) Montgomery is still available, but his postseason performance was expected to jack up his price. If I bought into the “ace” label thing, I doubt I’d label Montgomery as one. But he’s certainly been a very underrated pitcher. It is Goldilocks stuff if you think Snell is “just right”…

Gray was my entire off-season wish list…

If it makes you angry, I know I’m doing the right thing…

But that didn’t necessarily tablature to success. For example, while he was pitching for Seibu, Daisuke was frequently called “the best pitching prospect in the world.” I mean, he wasn’t horrible or anything. But was he an ace?

We had their guy in charge the last 4 years. Also does Tampa have this pipeline of SP everyone thinks we need? They did draft McLanahan and Taj Bradley. But they don’t seem to draft and develop as many pitchers as people think…

And who should the Sox have acquired for the top? Yamamoto, and his 0 MLB IP? Snell and his two Cy Youngs interspersed with several league-average seasons? Nola, the slightly more successful version of Rick Porcello? If you need an ace, what do you do when none are available?

Of course the Red Sox couldn’t use his first two years in Boston as part of that assessment, which you are doing…

And that needs to be the plan. As I have my doubts Snell and Bauer are anywhere near the radar…

Then why has Tampa been in the postseason 5 years in a row (and counting)? Even during their heaviest spending days, the Sox never did that…

Spending smart can also be interpreted as spending lucky. You can’t always predict injury. Look at Trevor Story. In Colorado, he never played fewer than 142 games. (Except 2020, obviously. And even then he played in 59 out of 60 games.) He did have the elbow injury, but that didn’t keep him out of any games in 2022. Not one. Story hasn’t worked out because he has been hurt a lot. Does he qualify as spending smart or spending poorly?

And spending heavily works every time, right? If only you had told Steve Cohen last offseason. Or Hal Steinbrenner, whose team did finish ahead of Boston, but please don’t tell me you would have been satisfied with an 82-80 team. Not sure who the Sox ace is. Who was that guy on the Rangers last year?

I don’t care if they keep payroll down. Spending heavily is not the only way to build a successful baseball team. And when it doesn’t work, it can be incredibly detrimental. But they do need to build a competitive team. I do think Henry’s goal is to be “good on a budget”. It’s not a popular philosophy, and not going to make him any friends. But it isn’t necessarily doomed, either…

But this nothing new and doesn’t mean you take a 16yo and decide “ok we can’t compete until this kid of 24.” Hopefully not. I think this type of thing that I have seen before is more fan logic than team logic. Team front offices know they are in the business of selling entertainment to people through baseball games, and can’t decide to sit out 3-4 years of building competitive teams and actually expect to make any money. I mean, we’ve all acknowledged it’s a business. Well, businesses don’t operate that way. When was the last time Pepsi decided not to produce any soft drinks because Coca Cola had some new trendy flavor they needed to wait out?

1. I’m confused with you say Ownership didn’t want a stronger competitor in one sentence and then state Ownership mandated the team be competitive in the next. 2. I don’t think you grasp the “look in the mirror” idiomatic expression. Now I realize this is an Internet forum and you could be posting from Norway and English is your fifth language. I’m which case, you’re doing well and I’m impressed…

The notion that “we lost X and Y and didn’t replace them” feels disingenuine, especially when for other teams, you highlighted unknown rookies and counted players returning from injury. Is the Sox team better or worse than last year? C, 1b and 3b maintain status quo. Casas and/or Wong might improve, but we can ignore that for now. 2b and SS. Are Story/Grissom better or worse than the Kike/Arroyo/Reyes/Chang/Urias/Turner/other squad that attempted to defend the middle of the diamond last year? OF - is the Duran/Rafaela/O’Neil outfield (or O’Neil/Duran/Abreu) better or worse than the Yoshida/Duvall(Duran)/Verdugo outfield from last year? Certainly better defensively. Offensively? DH - Yoshida is a likely step down from Turner. But I certainly hope he can improve markedly. Bullpen - hopefully the same. Rotation - is this rotation better or worse than last year? I think it’s already deeper. But as of today, Houck is a likely starter. If Houck can get pushed back to the bullpen, this whole staff might be noticeably better…

A rare moment where you and I agree…

Really last year’s Red Sox team posted similar stats to the NL-pennant winning Diamondbacks in both pitching and hitting. Also in wins. I ageee with dgalehouse. Too early to give up. I have my thoughts on how the Sox could/should improve. Breslow will follow none of them (which, to be honest, is probably the right course). And I’m still on board that the jump of 78 wins to 88 wins isn’t necessarily as big as one thinks…

The guy who won the AL MVP in 2024…

Yankees being rumored = positive. Sox being rumored = “interest kings”. Let me know when the Yankees sign someone. Did you know so far the Yankees have spent the same amount on free agents as you have?

And Carlos Rodon is the Yankee Savior? (I mean, Juan Soto?) In 9 MLB season, Carlos Rodon has 911 IP. History STRONGLY suggests a very predictable season outcome. Rodon makes Chris Sale look like Hoss Radbourne…