notin

Clevinger should be swimming in a shark tank filled with AB+. He’s one those guys I like less and less every time I google him. It’s actually unfair that that primate is allowed to play while Bauer is cancelled…

Also does this mean the Sox should focus instead on Mike Clevinger (60-39) instead of Jordan Montgomery (38-34)?

It also tells you what an incredible bargain hunter Chaim Bloom really was, when he was able to get Rich Hill (90-73) for only $5mill when his equivalent Aaron Nola (90-71) costs $172mill…

That’s to be expected, since Wacha is used to being hurt…

So it’s a fact and it matters, but no one will tell my why it matters…

And the bottom line - no one disputed Montgomery was not credited with a lot of wins. So why was it worth repeating so many times?

I think you’ll find this kind of split is common. For example - Blake Snell In his 71 wins, 1.13 In his 55 losses, 6.94 In his 66 no decisions, 3.07 But this is also not what I asked. A lot was made yesterday of his low season win totals. Several said it didn’t matter, and provided data in various forms. But even then, it was repeatedly pointed out it was a fact. But why was it ever worth mentioning, let alone repeated so often?

If a pitcher gave up 3.89 ER over 5 innings, his ERA would be 7.00…

But what does it say about Montgomery as a pitcher when you notice that in the last 3 years, he has started 94 games and pitched 524 innings, but only has 25 wins in that timeframe?

In road games, you need your team to score those 3 runs in 7 innings. Small clarification…

But what is the significance of him never winning more than 10 games?

I think the goal of OBP and BA and SLG is to pretend it’s all about the hitter. But then why does getting thrown out at 2b trying to stretch a single into a double count as being on base? You’re not. You’re out…

Or your defense to not blow the lead. There is a lot that can go wrong...

It actually does. And it should. He stepped up to the plate and didn’t get on base…

No. They are always plate appearances. They just are not always at bats...

But the bottom line is - if a pitcher gives you innings and doesn’t give up a lot of runs, he’s done his job. In the last 3 years, Montgomery has pitched 524 innings with an ERA of 3.48, which translates to an ERA+ of 121. He’s pitching a lot and holding opposing runs down. What else is he suppose to do? At that point, if he isn’t getting credit for wins, the three most likely reasons are poor run support, poor defense and ineffective relief pitching. None of these factors involve Montgomery…

But… but… but… the object of the game is to win!!

Exactly. Bullpens are more important now. And that practice does affect pitcher win totals…

It does impact OBP. A sac bunt and a sac fly are plate appearances…

Huh? I get not crediting a hitter with an at bat on a sac bunt; the hitter isn’t even trying to get a hit. He is intentionally bunting. But a sac fly is happenstance. Even if the hitter is trying to drive the ball. Run-scoring groundballs are at bats; why aren’t run-scoring flyballs? But that’s another matter. The sac fly has a weird history. From 1900 to 1908: Any flyball that advanced a runner was not an at bat. From 1908 to 1930: Only run-scoring flyballs were not at bats. From 1931 to 1939: Run-scoring flyballs were at bats 1940: Run-scoring flyballs were not at bats From 1941 to 1954: Run scoring flyballs were at bats again From 1955-present: No at bat credited if a run scored on a fly out. That’s more messed up than save rule changes. I do think MLB could go back in and fix batting averages from 1931 to 1954 to the current rules. If they can go back in and do the monumental task of putting saves in from 18?? To 1965, they can adjust batting averages. Get rid of .406 and replace it with .419

Johnny: And what does that W-L record mean? Teacher: Nothing. Johnny: But he’s never won more than 10 games!! The object is to win! Teacher: Win as a team yes. But it didn’t matter what pitcher gets the win. Johnny: But his career high is ten! Teacher: Look, we can go on all day with examples of good pitchers and bad W-L records. Johnny: Oh you can always disprove some stat with examples. But that doesn’t disprove it! Teacher: Huh? If you do disprove it with data, maybe that’s because it’s not very good. Johnny: But the object is to win!! It has to be. Teacher: You might have problems, Johnny…

Do I get to repost the link again where I clearly DID NOT say that? And were you clearly agreed with what I did say? f*** it. Here it is. Post 58. https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20314-MLB-to-ban-the-shift/page4?highlight=Rule+shift+guard Not the first time I’ve showed you…

But.. but… but… he’s entitled to his opinion. Of course the Stat Head crowd isn’t treating this like an opinion. We’re providing data that leads to a conclusion…

I’m going with the top three as the most likely reasons…

We don’t really need to look into his games. In three years, he pitched 524 innings (16th most in MLB), had a 3.48 ERA (31st in MLB for 300 inning minimum) but was only credited with 25 wins (53rd most in MLB). This tells us he pitched slot, didn’t give you a lot of runs, but was still rarely credited with a win. Heck, Tony Gonsolin had more wins despite pitching 260 fewer innings. Alek Manoah had more wins despite pitching fewer innings with a higher ERA. And the reasons are most likely the obvious ones - lack of run support or blown leads by the bullpen. Poor defense and unearned runs could be another culprit. And these three primary causes for his lack of wins are all not factors Montgomery can control. Those are Outside Factors. Yet when we look at his wins solely, we hold these outside factors against him…