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Everything posted by notin
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… unless Duran is having a career year and next season reverts to being the player he was last year…
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I think we can go back further to at least the end of the 2018 World Series.
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How about a blockbuster? Jarren Duran (surplus value - $86mill) to Seattle for Logan Gilbert ($88mill) i don’t see it happening either, but it makes sense for both teams on some level…
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And Abreu is not a good fit to bat against LHP. If the Sox trade Yoshida for Garver, they can put both in vs LHP, which is an improvement. Just platooning Refsnyder in somewhere is the status quo…
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The man can hit. If he moves to LF, doubtful it’s in Boston. His 2b activity could be severely interrupted by Vaughn Grissom next year. And, if he’s still here, David Hamilton. With Story back and Mayer still here, hopefully we see less of Hamilton (and Rafaela) at SS. Valdez’ best position is DH…
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Boo boo on my part. I thought Mayer’s .850 OPS was in Worcester. He’s stil in Portland, where Campbell demolished Eastern League pitching.
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Who cares? There’s room for both. Until Anthony comes up and Abreu gets moved, Refsnyder has a place to play…
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Valdez’ ceiling is platoon DH. I think he is already a good hitter, but nothing spectacular. I would have recommended him to Seattle with Yoshida, but as both are LHH DH types with limited defensive skills, Valdez is redundant.
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Campbell is the hot new toy, but both players are hitting about the same in Worcester. The difference is Mayer can field a position. And despite how long each has been around, Campbell is actually 6 months older…
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He was the starting DH on a Workd Series champion recently. Most of his unhealthy seasons were years he played a lot of catcher. He is a good RHH who hits lefties well, and the Sox have options for a platoon (Valdez?) if need be…
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Well, you needlessly included Abreu in the trade. Simplify it and that’s an option. If BTV is accurate, the simplest and most obvious trade the Sox would do is Kristian Campbell (38.6) to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet (39.3). Sox get their new best SP and don’t give up any of the “Big 3” they value so heavily. If the Sox are going to move Yoshida (-21), Mitch Garver (-11) does make a good target since Seattle would no longer need him, and he does have two skills Boston does need (Hitting lefties and hitting at Fenway.) They could either pay the $10mill difference or include an equally valued player (David Hamilton at 11.4? There are probably others.). I recommend the cash, but the Sox are not exactly charitable these days. Either way, Garver does make more sense for Boston and Refsnyder might not be an option. Although this trade doesn’t eliminate him from consideration either. They still need a 4th outfielder regardless…
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Anyone can have a bad year, but even in his bad year he did one thing right (hit lefties) the Sox need. Could he be an upgrade over Yoshida? And one that doesn’t involve spending? It’s a one year gamble that is probably worth taking. Even you included him. Well the Sox aren’t going to take him and DFA/release him. If they do get him, he will be a RHH bat in their lineup. It’s the same deal, but without the Sox getting a player (Robles) they don’t need and keeping a player (Abreu) they do, either on their lineup or in part of another deal. To me, the only question is, would Seattle want Mayer. I have my doubts since all he does is make their SS position cheaper and probably doesn’t address their offense. Really, this deal probably needs a third team (Milwaukee?) that needs a SS and can send them a cheap and useful bat or two…
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Before last year, I saw numerous posts from Mariner fans about Garver’s terrible history in Seattle (.514 OPS). He was awful there (.609) and on the road (.614). But he did hit lefties last year (.753) and for his career (.859), and has a career .797 at Fenway. If the Sox move Yoshida, Garver might be a good (re: tolerable) target…
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You’re over complicating things. Who needs Robles? Mayer ($65mill) and Yoshida (-$21mill) for Miller ($54mill) and Garver (-$11mill). Works on BTV. But would Seattle do it? Do they even need Mayer?
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Not a big fan of ERA, but I use it because it’s easily grasped by all fans. Yes, there are non- pitcher factors that can heavily influence it in some cases. Also, sometimes it’s easy to miss how small the differences really are. Like if a pitcher has 150 IP, each earned run adds 0.06 to his ERA. So if two SP each have 150 IP, and one has an ERA of 3.64 and the second has an ERA of 4.00, we look at the first one as being better sometimes much better. But really they only differ by one earned run per month. That difference could easily be attributable to better defense and/or a better bullpen or even questionable decisions by the official scorer. Or any combination of the three…
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At least it’s an attempt to put some context to those numbers. Go barnyard…
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DH is a position, and one where all that matters is hitting. I don’t like the idea of rotating players in and out of it or using as a place to “rest” starters. Get a hitter and call it a day. Yoshida isn’t the idea DH, but that doesn’t mean the position should be used completely differently. If they move Yoshida (unlikely), get another hitter…
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Sure, if you lower the bar to 180IP…
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At least that’s something. Of course Miller has some advantages Houck doesn’t have - larger ballpark, better defense, better bullpen, weaker division. And yet his performance overall is maybe comparable on some metrics…
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Or signed him instead of Giolito. But Flaherty isn’t much of a workhorse…
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Then tell me how they are more successful than Houck, and not about their stuff. They’re beyond that point…
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Fair point. By ERA, Severino is basically a league average pitcher. ERA+ is 105, so slightly better. But there’s nothing wrong with league average (unless you pay for much, much better)…
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And you left out Manaea. Problem is the success rate with these type of signings is not optimal, and there were quite a few flops this past off-season in this range, like Giolito, Stroman, Montas, Lynn, Gibson, Severino, and Maeda…
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I do agree with all of this. Except whether or not Crochet is overhyped, but that’s a trivial point. (And the Burnes assessment, but that is immaterial since zero chance the Sox get beyond the “rumored suitor” phase.) A deep bullpen is ideal, rather than one built around a closer/set up duo. The Sox do have numerous pitchers returning to the pen. Along with the signed absentees Liam Hendriks and Michael Fulmer, there is Winckowski, Slaten, Bernardino, Booser, Kelly and Whitlock. Of those last 6, the most likely locks are Winckowski, Slaten and Whitlock, with Bernardino on the fringes. If that’s the case, the Sox have two immediate openings on the MLB roster. This is the place to spend. Tanner Scott would be nice. Or AJ Minter. The trade market is likely to have Kyle Finnegan. There are options to bulk up the pen. I hope they still look into Crochet. Or maybe a Seattle starter…
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Mayer?
