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Yes it’s the case with TJS, but that’s whole point and not a brush off excuse. His 2021 was outstanding, but that’s also 4 years ago now…

Right. They get scheduled like that. At least we know he won’t be like Josh Johnson, who had his first in 2007, his second in 2014, then came back in 2016 and FACED ONE BATTER and had to have his third one. Maybe those timelines between surgeries don’t always balance out..

For very unsavory reasons, Montgomery had a bad year. That does happen, but he’s been very reliable throughout the rest of his career. Buehler is trying to become his former self despite his arm being rebuilt multiple times. He may never be the same. For one year, l lean towards Montgomery as the more likely bounce back candidate. Despite a higher ERA, Montgomery had a better FIP, lower walk rate, and lower home run rate. Buehler had a better K rate. Montgomery most likely has the higher salary. But the years are already set. It’s for one year. Buehler should only get a one year deal, but with the number of players involved, it just takes one team willing to guarantee . I take Montgomery for one guaranteed year with a normal off-season, and I think he outperforms Buehler…

Sugano carries a risk, but it’s a different type risk…

On BTV, Fedde has a surplus value of $16.5mill, so he comes at a fairly steep price. Montgomery, on the other hand, has a surplus value of (-$10.4mill). Readily available. Sure you might not be able to pawn off Yoshida or Story for him, but nearly everyone else in the entire organization is in play here…

Depends. What would Jordan Montgomery’s price tag be? Or Erick Fedde’s? Both have one year left, and should be available. Fedde’s salary is pretty low, so he might cost something. Montgomery? Not likely much..

Really? Nuttier than the statement about pitchers with 2 TJs having an 89-90% success rate? Or the one.about Pivetta being risky because Giolito got injured? And it wasn’t just the age difference. It was age vs very risky health history. Why is that part left out of your summary? Kluber didn’t work out, but he was less risky than Buehler, who, in case you didn’t notice, was pretty bad last year. But the overall reality is you will have a better success rate with 37yo starting pitchers who were ok at 36 than you will pitchers coming off their second Tommy John. Im not convinced the Sox really need another SP. But as depth is a good thing, I’d prefer that pitcher not be Buehler. When it comes to needing starter depth, Buehler is more of a cause than a solution. The only decent remaining starters do have QOs (except Flaherty). Granted, signing one keeps the Sox even with draft picks, so it’s not so punitive. But why limit to just free agents? Or if you need to sign someone, sign bullpen arms. Or better yet, if he really only wants 3 years, sign Teoscar. But limit it to 3 years. Signing him to a 4th and he will be 37, and then his talent will just evaporate immediately…

Right. Every player slams into that magical wallat age 37. Highlighting Buehler solely by his age is shallow and incomplete. His primary issues are not age-related. It’s more about the number of stitches holding his UCL together. Again, Kluber threw 160 inning AT AGE 36! Buehler failed to do that at age 27. And 28. And when he did come back at age 29, he wasn’t that good. Is he worth a one year gamble? Maybe, but most likely it’s just a. waste. Rather than spend on Buehler, get a reliever. Or make a deal for a contracted pitcher some other team wants to move. Tyler Anderson? Erick Fedde? Jordan Montgomery? There’s no rule you can only acquire free agents. Yes, trading costs prospects, but none of those arms will cost you Kristian Campbell…

Pivetta would work, but he might be looking at $100mill over 4 years. At that price, I pass…

See I think saying “Kluber was older” is lazy and unjustified. Kluber was coming off a season with 160 IP and worth 3 fWAR. For Burnes or Flaherty, the Sox should re-arrange the rotation. But I’d rather bulk up the bullpen with options like Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman over signing Buehler. The Sox have enough physically questionable starting pitchers already. If we need IP, keep Kutter in the rotation. And it’s more of a bullpen game today anyway. Fewer starters throw 200 IP anymore. Today, teams need about 1450 IP for a season, but starting rotations often only pitch 700-800 of them. The bullpen obviously gets the rest, meaning you need a lot more than just a closer out there. Fifteen years ago, you needed just 3 reliable RPs. Now, having 5 makes your pen a question mark…

Manaea? Pivetta? Flaherty isn’t really all that reliable, but I take him over Buehler. Quintana makes more sense than Buehler. And we still have Fulmer just recovered from his second TJ.

I’m not sold on Buehler yet either. 75 largely ineffective IP in the regular season with a great HR/9 than Kutter Crawford shouldn’t be ignored because of 10 good innings in the postseason. Buehler is as big of a question mark as Paxton was, and I don’t understand how people can hope they avoid contracts like Kluber in favor of deals like Buehler. I’d much prefer Manaea or the return of Pivetta, and neither of them make my nipples explode with delight. Crochet is risky enough…

LA would trade Rendon before you finished his name in the request. Breslow: So I was wondering about a trade involving Anthony Ren… Minasian: Done! He’s all yours!

He was called up multiple times. Even played in 99 games from 2014-2016, and put up crazy good DRS numbers for that stretch. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castiru02.shtml After DD DFAd him and left him to rot in Worcester, THEN he was removed from the 40 man roster. But he was certainly on it for quite a while…

Having two is a big deal, and fro every Eovaldi that does fine afterwards there’s a Brandon Beachy or Chris Capuano who saw it effectively end their career. And a third one is the end based on history. Multiple TJs is a big deal, and this doesn’t change because Eovaldi did fine after his second…

More worried about the tear than the wear…

Buehler has ace caliber ability, but he’s also a tweak away from never pitching again…

Plus Whitlock, too…

And it was a long shot at best, given the Union preference that players take the largest offer…

I’m sure they say worse. But not to his face or when he’s in the room…

I had to check out the opponents, since a lot of times you get some AAAA lineups from September non-contenders. And two of them were against the Angels and Rockies. But the other two were against the Braves and Padres, which gives him some legitimacy…

Fitts was in the Dugo trade. We got Sandlin for John Schreiber…

None. The only pitcher to return after his third TJS was Johnny Venters, and his return was brief and ineffective. If Buehler has another procedure, his career is likely over…

I’d agree but for the potential of Roman Anthony. The Sox could accommodate both if they dealt/benched Rafaela, but that just makes them even more left-handed…

I think this is a myth. For any team, you have 4 other teams in the division and 25 teams outside of it. So trades outside are 6 times more likely, but only based on quantity of teams and not on anything inherent to divisional play. If pressed, I can think of young stars traded within a division. JT Realmuto, for example. Also Matt Kemp, Mike Piazza, Cliff Lee, Jose Canseco, Gary Carter, etc.