If MN is cutting costs and trying to stay competitive, Lopez is the guy to move, as he is owed roughly $65mill over 3 years.
On BTV, Lopez’ surplus value is $37.4mill, surprisingly high for his contract. This makes him a near perfect match for Kristian Campbell ($38.6mill) and that undoubtedly gets the deal done.
The obvious problem to me is I’d be hesitant to give up a MLB.com top ten prospect for Lopez’ contract. A deal of Wilyer Abreu (whose skill set matches up nicely with the soon-to-be-departed Max Kepler) and David Hamilton fills two potential holes for them nicely and has a surplus value total ($40.8mill) slightly in the Twins’ favor.
But they might insist on Campbell or no deal…