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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    Unless a tree falls in front of me and I don’t hear it. Because that will then prove I’m a nobody…
  2. notin
    Time will tell. Correct. May has made one start. Tibbs and Erhard are still in the minors. It is weird how some decided Tibbs first 3 games in the Dodgers farm system were the norm and his 50+ games with Boston were the outlier. Oh and that he was the key piece in the Devers trade. Tibbs and Erhard are likely inconsequential. May will make maybe 10-12 starts for Boston. This trade really isn’t the big deal many are desperately trying to turn it into…
  3. notin
    So you’re saying trading away James Tibbs and Zack Erhard is like trading away Sale and Betts? No Andersen for Bagwell? Or what about Teel and Montgomery for Crochet? Or is your point that “the Sox ALWAYS make bad trades and to prove it I will name two of them from the past 5 years!!”?
  4. notin
    Padres’ bullpen is insane. Very few teams ever have two All Star relievers; the Padres had 3 this year. And then they added Mason Miller. This bullpen might rival the 2015 Royals…
  5. notin
    Under a mountain of legal and insurance paperwork…
  6. notin
    I read somewhere Password was working out at 1b. I can’t remember where, which makes me think it’s possible I wrote it somewhere and then read it. And if that’s the case, I’m not sure that counts…
  7. notin
    Clearly. And it worked. You’ve already forgotten either that Xander and Eovaldi were not traded away or that we were talking about the Sox making bad deadline trades, a topic that doesn’t apply to Sale or Mookie. But at least you remembered Eovaldi was in another good one…
  8. notin
    They also got some much needed silence in a locker room previously filled with complaints about switching positions…
  9. notin
    Hey they need someone to tell those left-handed hitters they can’t play against left-handed pitchers…
  10. notin
    Have you seen the Padres’ bullpen? Not sure that’s a great plan…
  11. notin
    No one is arguing about the theory that Sox will strike out less if they swing at fewer bad pitches. But the problem is, it’s not that easy to implement. If it was only as simple as “don’t swing at bad pitches.” Thats about as effective as trying to solve anyone’s problems with the universally good yet still meaningless advice “just don’t make mistakes.”
  12. notin
    Some? Cop to it, man. You blazed that trail years ago…
  13. notin
    If talks for Kelly we’re going anywhere at the time, the Sox likely wouldn’t have pivoted to Dustin May…
  14. notin
    Like when they gave away Christian Vazquez and received nothing in return except Wilyer Abreu…
  15. notin
    And it’s acceptable for a one hit wonder band. But how good is it for a switch-hitting lawnmower?
  16. notin
    Did Schwarber change anything? His K% and O-Swing% are both within a 3% range over the last 5 years. His K% is down 0.5% from last year, but his chase percentage is slightly up. Schwarber has always been a patient hitter with decent plate discipline, which is why his OBP is usually .100 or so more than his BA. But he does still have significant swing and miss in his game…
  17. notin
    Or move to Antarctica, where the nights are 6 months long…
  18. notin
    Most players who improve take years to do so. It’s not like the coaching staff can just say “today we’re going to work on cutting down our chase rates.” Slower MLB pitchers throw the ball across the plate in 0.4 seconds, meaning a hitter really has maybe 0.2 seconds to decide if a pitch is hittable. It’s not just a matter of coaching to get hitters to make better decisions in a 0.2 second window when they’ve been doing this most of their lives. If it was as easy as just coaching them, it would have already been done and no one would ever swing at a bad pitch…
  19. notin
    “Every table has a stupidest player…”
  20. notin
    LOL It’s like getting poker advice from Kenny Rogers. ”You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.” No s***…
  21. notin
    Wha about those supported by AI? I’ve learned recently ChatGPT, for example is remarkably bad at selective baseball stats. I didn’t have time to check every player later, but I looked at two on Fangraphs and found the numbers in that response to be fictional. Dansby Swanson, for example, has a K% of 28% this year, up (not down) from 24% last year. His chase rate was not significantly down, either, going from 24.2% to 24%. Pete Alonso’s K% is slightly down this year, but his O-Swing is up. But both are hovering right around his career norms. Your conclusion is not supported by the provided facts…
  22. notin
    It’s really the same thing. Hitters are swinging at bad pitches because they don’t have time to realize they are bad pitches until it’s too late. But your solution is “start realizing it sooner!!” ? Can it be done? Maybe , but it’s far from being that simple.. Hundreds of hitters have tried it and the results are almost universally what I said would happen. I wasn’t making a prediction; I was recapping history…
  23. notin
    They are more likely to miss than they are to be Vlad Guerrero Sr. This is true. But hitters have tried to change their approach before by reducing chase rate. And this gets implemented by taking more pitches. It’s all they can really do. When hitters take more pitches, they also take more strikes. You’re probably going to cut down on swinging third strikes, but also increase taken third strikes. But on the bright side - lower chase rate!
  24. notin
    Those are two different asks - reducing chase rate AND striking out less. They are not related, and reducing chase rate is more likely to increase strike outs than decrease them. They are not problem here is you expect one type of hitter to seamlessly morph into a completely different type of hitter. This is more likely to go wrong than go right…
  25. notin
    That’s because ZiPS is useless. Not as useless as PECOTA. Steamer is pretty bad, too. The only good projection system ever developed is the WAPM. I think we can (and should) all agree on that…
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