Jump to content
Talk Sox
  • Create Account

notin

Old-Timey Member
  • Posts

    52,029
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    44

 Content Type 

Profiles

Boston Red Sox Videos

2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking

Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker

News

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by notin

  1. It could be looked at as Stewart saying his opinion supersedes any definition of the word. Frankly, I think it was very arrogant of him to think he alone had the ability to determine what was and what was not pornography...
  2. Baseball Reference also has statistics for clutch, and, like Fangraphs and unlike everyone on this forum, they have a definition for clutch. Around here it always boiled down to "clutch exists but I don't know what it is." And my argument ABSOUTELY DOES NOT completely come down to statistics. You proposed that dWAR was useless because you did not agree with one conclusion. And no proponent of WAR, bWAR or FWAR, has ever said the number is definitive. And WAR is solely used for historical data. No one has ever used to to predict the outcome of a single play. And why would you? It doesn't look at a single aspect of the game, so using it to predict one would be silly. OPS is a stat that is completely unquantifiable, too. If I asked you what the difference was between an .850 OPS hitter and a .900 OPS hitter, beyond saying the latter hitter is better, you couldn't do it. But when you break down the components of OPS - OBP and SLG - you can get an idea of which hitter is better. The normalizing OPS+ is an even more confusing stat, since none of us can even calculate it, and certainly useless for a single play. Does that make it unquantifiable? Does it give no relevant information? But these stats are all usefull for comparing players we don't get to watch to the ones we do. And just because one stat says a player you think is doing well is doing average doesn't change how good he is or invalidate the stat. This isn't about "eye test" vs raw data, especially since most of these stats do incorporate eye test data along with defined standards (that casual fans do not use). These numbers are best used in comparing players. Look at Mookie Betts. In his rookie year, he posted an OPS of .812 and an OPS+ of 126. In his second year, he posted an OPS of .820 and an OPS+ of 117. His OPS improved but his OPS+ decreased. What does that tell you? Did Mookie get better or worse from year one to year two? The answer of course id that while Mookie did improve a little, but the league around him improved more.
  3. UN confused bWAR with fWAR. On B-R.com, if you hover over dWAR, they explain it as being compared to league average...
  4. While teams do certainly do favors for players - like Steve Piscotty being dealt to Oakland - I suspect that as the return of Pedroia approaches, maybe they will move Swihart elsewhere. Certainly teams will make offers. None will be enticing. Swihart probably brings back a 26yo AA player or some sort of organizational depth that need not be added to the 40-man. Salary dumps are always possible, but it also depends how much money the Sox take on and for how long. The Ziegler/Tazawa scenario above might actually b best case, and I'm not sure how willing DD is to take on those deals, both of which expire after this season...
  5. And his size vs the power he generated is very comparable to Betts...
  6. I'm not really sure what Swihart gives the Sox right now they couldn't get from one of many catchers with options or on minor league deals. If they don't like his defense behind the plate, wouldn't they be better off with a defensively talented journeyman back there? Dombrowski has brought in guys like Bryan Holaday in the past to fill a catcher void...
  7. Well, this argument has been statitic-based because you challenged the validity of a statistic on page 68 of this thread ("and his bdWAR is 0.0, saying that JBJ is an exactly average CF. That should give us some idea of exactly how accurate dWar is"). I have countered by saying you don't really get what that stat is measuring. and you even agreed that you don't have the ability to watch every game and compare Jackie Bradley to other center fielders. You can call his defense excellent, and I would agree. But that doesn't mean there aren't 15 other center fielders who are better, which is what that number is saying. The people who complie it don't just plug numbers into formulae; they start with raw data by actually WATCHING EVERY CENTER FIELDER PLAY and rating their plays accordingly. The very stuff neither of us can do. Just because their conclusion is not one you would not agree with doesn't invalidate the stat. Especially given that you don't have the opportunities to watch everyone. And like most stats, 40 games worth of data doesn't lead to a final conclusion. Odubel Herrera leads all of MLB in batting average. Is he really the most talented hitter in MLB? (Hint: No.)
  8. Baseball has governed by statistics since before you were born. I really doubt you would want to have an argument with other people about baseball based solely upon opinions.
  9. But WAR numbers are compared to a league average. It's not about "good" defense. His dWAR is compared to the other center fielders. So citing other examples of players you haven't seen to support the argument doesn't really change this case as much as enhance it. A dWAR of 0.0 doesn't mean Bradley is bad. It does mean that, out of the 30 players playing regular CF today, his performance has been average. You can't just watch him play alone and decide that to be incorrect, and Potter Stewart quotes don't change this. An average performance isn't always a bad performance. If you took a test in school and got 95%, and the class average was 95%, you performed at class average. Did you perform badly? Did you not understand the material? Since you brought up Clemente as a player you have not seen play a lot (and I have never seen), how do you really know how good of a defender he was?
  10. Actually not what his dWAR is saying...
  11. But you have already admitted you haven't seen other center fielders as much as Bradley. So how can you counter any argument that his defense is average or above or below?
  12. Baseball-Reference dWAR explicitly states the replacement level they are using is the league average. So they are saying this year, Bradley has been average among centerfielders. Maybe he has been this year to date. While he is a terrific defensive player, without having watched all the other centerfielders to compare him to, how do you counter that?
  13. there is a massive difference between understanding how WAR is calculated and understanding what it does. I also don't understand many of the calculations in nuclear physics, but I am willing to accept them as correct and do not deny their validity based on their complexity...
  14. He can request a trade all he wants. But finding another team that s willing to give anything up for him is another matter. He has two selling points - a low salary and experience at multiple positions. But he isn't much of a catcher and his only other positions in MLB are 1B and corner OF, neither of which are hard to fill with more established players. The most likely deal might be for an injured or overpriced player some dirt cheap team (Miami? Pittsburgh?) is looking to get rid of. I could see him going for former Sox relievers Brad Ziegler ($9mill) or Junichi Tazawa ($7mill), assuming the Sox are willing to absorb that payroll. While Billy Beane seems to like collecting former top prospect types with limited position flexibility, I doubt he moves Santiago Casilla ($5.5mill) so readily, although I suppose it is possible. Beyond that, maybe something along the lines of the Buchholz/Tobias trade where the Sox get a longshot minor leaguer who never sees the inside of Fenway Park...
  15. Right now, Betts reminds me a lot of Garciaparra at the plate, especially with the way he has explosive games that carry this team. Hopefully he won't have a tragically short of a career as Nomar, who was on a clear fast track to Cooperstown before injuries set it...
  16. Pitching is important to defense, but I also disagree with that split. But on the other hand, I don't really have a counter-proposal to say what I think it is. However, if you look at the differences between FIP and ERA, the numbers are usually similar enough that 80% becomes very tough to justify...
  17. Be fair here. He wasn't disparaging someone for disagreeing with advanced statistics. He was calling someone out for disparaging statistics without understanding them. There is a very, very big difference. I'm not sure why playing the game makes any difference. Plenty of people involved in MLB clearly use these advanced numbers, so high school and college play from us is really relatively insignificant. And certainly no one has said sabermetric stats are infallible. But they are certainly superior to eye test testimony in many cases, especially comparative ones. And really, the traditional "back of the baseball card" stats all have their own inherent flaws, too. Batting average is one of the most misleading stats in the game, but we all use it repeatedly, including me. And I do it while knowing the inherent flaws. But I use it for the same reasons everyone else does - its very recognizable and familiar...
  18. I didn't mean for you too retype the entire thing. A link or a mention of a thread would have worked for me But more important, it's really a hypothesis built on other hypothesis and extrapolated. I can't rip it since I don't have a counter-theory, but that also doesn't make it fact...
  19. Also true. This applies to most stats, including Bradley's hitting numbers...
  20. Carson Smith was placed on the DL with an injury to this right (throwing) shoulder. Poyner was recalled...
  21. That's really all how Jackie feels about it, I guess. He might view it as the manager having confidence in him to overcome his weakness against LHP. Or that he is a positive addition to the lineup regardless of how he hits. That's all pretty dependent on Jackie as a person (and to be fair, Cora knows him and I don't). But I don't think benching him does much for anyone's confidence. But hey, maybe that is the best way to handle Bradley...
  22. This whole "tanking" thing only irritates the MLBPA. While MLB can and has imposed fines for not spending revenue sharing, that is about as far as it goes. There will always be teams in rebuilding mode to get better down the road, and MLB isn't going to penalize that as it adds an extra layer of excitement to the season in late July...
  23. So he decided to preserve his confidence by benching him?
  24. Oh I am not completely a stats guy. If I were, I would not have added the addendum about performance within a season. I love Bradley as a CF, and I don't like him less just because Lewis Brinson posts better dWAR numbers. However, when making a statement like "Bradley is the best" or "top 3" or whatever - anything comparative - I don't think watching Bradley and Bradley alone is a good basis for any comparative judgement. My data is far, far too biased in his direction. And for comparisons, using data like dWAR or UZR or whatever stat you like that does look at all players equally is really the best way to go...
  25. Als bear in kind dWAR and stats like that aren't definitive statements about ability. As a standalone year, they tell you who is having the better season, and players do have good and bad defensive seasons. So while Bradley's dWAR may be closer to the middle of the pack than normal, it doesn't necessarily mean he is average among his peers. Just like Matt Carpenter's batting average this year doesn't mean he is the worst hitter in MLB. (But it does mean Carpenter is having the worst season to date.)
×
×
  • Create New...