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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    My guess is anyone selected by the Pirates, Rangers or Tigers will be equally thrilled, if not more so. Especially anyone who grew up around any of those teams. (Like Lawler and the Rangers.)
  2. notin
    So far, the talking heads have the Sox selecting either Davis, Leiter, Lawler, Watson, Jobe, and probably someone else. Considering Bloom took Nick Yorke last year, maybe we need to write off all of the obvious candidates and count on him doing something off script. Madden? Fabian? Who else would you suspect he would never pick? Sticking with Rocker here for two reasons 1. Bloom is unpredictable 2. I'm stubborn…
  3. notin
    Any player expected to be among the top picks is going to be selected by a bad team. That’s how the draft works…
  4. notin
    While I agree, at least we’ve all seen college players stay an extra year because the parents were rich, like with the 2006-2007 Florida Gators hoops team that had Al Horford and Joakim Noah…
  5. notin
    The pen might see both Sale and Houck as additions this year. Relievers are very common trade targets, so it’s not unlikely. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Sox add a starter…
  6. notin
    Possible. Or maybe he prefers a losing team since it might expedite his time in the minors. Heck, he might refuse to sign with Boston because his dad was a Yankee. But all of this is just guessing about what a 20yo none of us have ever met will think. Honestly, whether it’s this year or next, Leiter is going to likely be a top draft pick, which means there will always be a good chance the team that drafts him is a losing team. Now I am not so sure, but has there ever been any player who refused to sign because the team wasn’t any good? I know plenty have not signed because the team that drafted them did not offer enough money, but that’s not the same…
  7. notin
    I can’t speak for Bloom, but that would be a good get. While I think the BTV value of Kimbrel is low, I would suspect any trade for him doesn’t get back a surplus value exceeding, say, 5 on BTV’s model. They ain’t getting Downs. Potts? Sure, if they want him…
  8. notin
    The Cubs might want more.
  9. notin
    But even then, if the fear (as stated) was the 2024 roster going over, the only real commitment is Chris Sale’s contract (and Bogaerts if he stays). There will be ample opportunity to get back under if the penalties are harsher…
  10. notin
    Assuming it matters once the new CBA is finalized...
  11. notin
    Why would the Sox put Duran on the bench? If he comes up, it's to start. Kimbrel is having a great year, but I seriously doubt the Sox give up Jeter Downs for him. Kimbrel is also expensive, which, unless the Cubs pay a huge chunk of money, drastically reduces what they get in a trade. BTV gives Kimbrel a trade value of 0, which feels a bit low but by the deadline he will still have owed about $6.3 mill (with a $16mill option for 2022). BTV gives Downs a surplus value of 29.6. So even if the Kimbrel value is low, like I think it is, Downs is still a massive overpayment. Maybe someone like Jay Groome (BTV value: 4.3) would be the best offer the Sox make....
  12. notin
    Again, there’s no reason to avoid the tax line. The argument that “but we might be even better in 3 years” is not only hypothetical and uncontrollable, but also falls outside the current CBA and this penalty might not exist in 3 years. Also it ignores the other obvious outcome - that the Sox might be worse in 3 years. Plus the Sox are winning NOW. The 2024 season should NOT be the priority…
  13. notin
    Except notin…
  14. notin
    With the sole caveat being Matt Bush, who was drafted number one overall as a shortstop but had to move to pitcher. Then prison. Then back to pitcher…
  15. notin
    But there was something not right about the Dodgers needing 13 postseason wins after only getting 43 regular season wins. That’s a pretty small difference…
  16. notin
    Can you agree it was an outlier season? I was glad to have it, even though I gave up on the Sox the second I saw Ryan Weber start the third game of the season…
  17. notin
    He was traded to make the team better, stronger, faster… and cheaper with more financial flexibility…
  18. notin
    The draft thread is on the Minor League board…
  19. notin
    I only looked at first round high school shortstop picks, since that’s all that mattered in a discussion about the future of Mayer/Lawler/etc. But numerous players went on to play different positions from where they were drafted (and not just high school players). In fact, I would bet that the starting lineup of every single MLB team has at least one player who was drafted at one position but is playing another. Heck, the Red Sox gave two just on the right side of their infield. But still, I agree 100% that Bogaerts (or any current player) is NOT going to influence who the Sox draft…
  20. notin
    Actually if you go back and look at most of the first rounds from 2007 through 2017, the overwhelming majority of high school shortstops who made MLB either played SS or 2B. The only exception I found was 2008 late first rounder Lonnie Chisenhall, who played 3B and OF for Cleveland and Pittsburgh. (And homered off David Price in the post-season!) I might have missed someone, but the bulk of those who made MLB stayed in the middle infield...
  21. notin
    The woefully short regular season certainly had an effect on the post season. Since the 60 game mark this season, the Sox went from being half a game behind Tampa to 4 games up. Certainly some teams in 2020 would have made the post season in a full year that wound up on the outside looking in...
  22. notin
    Technically the foul pole could be renamed “the home run pole”…
  23. notin
    Not true. Limited only to those who get tickets…
  24. notin
    I wouldn’t leave out a very under-the-radar trade of Deven Marrero for Jake Taylor, which also looks really good right now…
  25. notin
    I don’t see the Sox moving either player on the left side of the infield at any point during the 2021 season. If they add a 1b at the deadline or try some weird experiment with Cordero, that’s one thing. But we won’t see either Devers or Bogaerts changing positions anytime soon. If they are going to try Cordero, they probably should soon, so they can determine if he succeeds or fails before the trade deadline…
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