moonslav59

Most of the best hitters in MLB don't bat .900 every week.

To me, if Pivetta does well until the deadline, he and Jansen would get the best return. Pivetta has been good for several years, but he has now gone a whole calendar year of pitching very well. Teams look to improve their rotations, going into August. Teams without a solid closer will be fighting over Jansen, too. There will be a few big bat rentals out there. O'Neill should get a decent prospect, but IMO, not as good as Pivetta & Jansen. Martin has something to prove, first.

A look at the Sox beyond 2024 (w years of team control: ) SP: 5 Bello (+1 opt), Criswell, Murphy, Walter, 4 Crawford, Winkowski 3 Houck, 2 Whitlock 1 Giolito (+1 opt) Prospects: Fitts, Perales, Mata, Wikelman, Penrod, Dobbins, Gambrell E R-C, Early, Monegro, Bastardo, Portes, Mullins, Wehunt, Paez RP: 5 Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, I Campbell, Kelly, Booser, Horn, Keller 1 Hendriks (+1 opt), Fulmer Prospects: Sandlin, Guerrero, Zeferjahn, Hoppe C: 4 Wong 1 McGuire Prospects: Teel, Jo, Garcia, Hickey, Brannon 1B: 4 Casas Prospects: Jordan, Kavadas (DH), Gasper 2B: 5 E Valdez, Grissom Prospects: K Campbell, Yorke, Paulino, Romero SS: 5 DHam 4 Romy G 3 Story (+1 opt) Prospects: Mayer, Cespedes, Zanetello 3B: 9 Devers 3 Dalbec Prospects: C Coffey, Meidroth, A Anderson LF: 4 Duran 1 Refsnyder Prospects: M Lugo, Castro CF: 7 Rafaela Prospects: Anthony, Bleis RF: 5 Abreu Prospects: Jh. Garcia, Sogard, N Taylot DH: 3 Yoshida

Lucky you! Enjoy it!

Speaking of IP, what's the current over/under on 2024 IP for these guys? EST based on about 2.16 x current IP: 205 Houck 180 Crawford 150 Bello 115 Pivetta 110 Criswell (80 for Slaten & Anderson)

My opinion is not based on Yoshida’s SSS in 2024. It’s based on others doing better and some on how Yoshida ended 2023. I think the league figured him out and he has yet to make the right adjustment. I don’t think he should be the FT DH or even 75%. I think Cora will start him 60-75% or more.

I think Jansen and Pivetta can get an average team’s 10-18 prospect, and O’Neill a 12-22 one. Martin is unknown, as of now but could get a 12-22 or 18-30 depending

It’s hard to have a strong opinion on Sandlin, but with such a lack of strong pitching prospects, I’m sticking to my no top 10 opinion. I would trade Wikelman and Roger’s for him.

No doubt, my OCD kicks in, often on this site. Not making excuses, but I don't have many people around me who like to talk Sox with, so I come here and weigh in on just about anything and everything. Thank you for your understanding.

He can start here and there, PH some or wait until someone doing well declines some (more.) I've never said he should not play or never start.To me, it's also about benching players that are doing well more than Yoshi. (It wasn't long ago, I was trying to talk you off the ledge on Yoshi, so it's not like I'm a longtime Yoshi critic.)

I have agreed this is a concern. I'm not sure what else I need to say.

I'm not giving a top 10 prospects, but might give a couple 11-30 prospects. Yes, he'd fit into our line-up nicely, but he'd DH instead of Ref, who is our best better vs LHPs over the last 3 years. We do have room for Ref in the OF v LHPs, but with so many lefty OF'ers, we'd have to bench Duran, Abreu or Ref/Rafaela/O'Neill in the OF vs RHPs. Is the gain worth what we give up? I guess it depends on what we give up. Paulino & Hickey, sure. E R-C and Yorke? Maybe not.

Agreed. 36 PAs is not a long enough time to radically change the plan. Now, if they were close to promoting him before this stretch, then maybe, but I doubt they were.

I should have known you weren't really jacked up over that idea. LOL

The last place Reds might not be as bad as it looks. While they are 35-39, that is only 4.5 games worse than the Sox, and they have a +10 run differential, which is 13th best in MLB.

Hard to read sarcasm in print. He could catch a little less, so he could DH or maybe play 2B more.

Cutter Coffey is 16 for his last 36 with 8 HRs and 20 rbi! WOW!

When Abreu comes back (today?) we will start to see an OF squeeze, but only when we face RHPs.

I'm not writing it off. I'm just saying the SSS might not reflect any actual major problem. I did say it was "concerning," so I don't know where you get the "writing off" aspect of your post.

Loved your other silver linings, but Dalbec, Cooper and DSmith have not added much of anything to any aspect of the game.

Why overcomplicate things and make changes to things that are working? Hell, forget the "hot hand" argument: go by 2024, or 2023 through 2024 numbers and even career splits numbers on the guys we have and show me where Yoshida has earned the right to replace someone in the line-up. Sure, he should be in the line-up vs LHPs over Valdez, Abreu and maybe a couple more guys. He's got better numbers than some guys vs RHPs, and he beats Ref in career OPS vs RHPs, so in that area, one can argue he should get another shot, but to me, Ref has more than earned a FT place in the line-up, until he shows he no longer deserves it. He has got many key hits, which had been a sore spot on this team. He seems like he has played a major role in bringing up the team as a whole. Of course, sitting him a few games vs tough RHPs might not ruin all that. I get it, but I think the guy should DH vs RHPs most of the time. I'm not sure why this has become a flashpoint discussion, and my stubbornness is surely part of the reason for that, but I'm a bit surprised that posters who seemed most critical of Yoshida seem to have the biggest problem with my opinion that he has not earned a slot in the line-up just yet, or that ref has not "earned" a change in his role. If Cora plays Yoshida at DH, I won't be at all surprised, and I will root for him as much as for any Sox player. It would be great for him to get closer to expectations. It is entirely possible, he can do well for us. I hope it works.

I suggested that over a month ago. People write off Grissom and others for 90 PA sample sizes or less, but don't think Wong's 210 PAs of 2023 are telling enough. (The guy also has a .725 OPS in 683 career PAs, which is pretty good for a catcher and better than our DH, 1B and 2Bmen have been doing.)

I am not and have never written him off or suggested we DFA him. I do not think he has earned the right to start, except maybe in a reverse spit DH role v LHPs, but only because so many other Sox batter really suck v lefties. It's more about what other players have been doing vs RHPs that I am against upsetting. I'm not for changing things that are working, and working even better than fine. I've suggested the Ref success vs RHPs may end at any moment, and he has slowed a bit, but IMO, he should play everyday, unless it's a rest day or he's facing a tough RHP'er that Cora feels he might struggle against. I get the point on DHam and the smoke and mirrors argument. He's not good on defense, either, but Rafaela at SS has not been top notch, either, and keeping him in CF seems like the a very good plus. With the OF about to get squeezed by Abreu's return, I can see how it makes sense, and DHam can play at 2B with Valdez as yet another reverse split platoon role. It seems rather awkward to play Rafaela out of position, so Yoshida and DHam can bat vs LHPs. As of now, I am not convinced Yoshida has earned the right to DH v RHPs over someone like Ref and maybe DHam. This is not some major knock-down drag out no brainer opinion of mine. I always trust what Cora chooses and do not hold it against him, if chooses positions I don't agree with. I've seen his choices work more than many of mine might have. If Brez thinks Yoshi should be on the 26, and he obviously did (does,) then I fully expect Cora to play him. That is what it is. I've suggested paying a big chunk of Yoshi's contract to trade him away, but there might be zero takers on even us paying 90% of his remaining deal, so I can't blame anyone for not doing that. I just feel this team is gelling, right now, and the players all know their roles and what is expected of them. Just about everyone has been contributing, even some who were demoted for sucking out of the gate, like Valdez and DHam. A guys like Westbrook (.958 v RHPs) and Romy (pretty solid D and better O than we saw in April at middle IF) pulled their weight, when called upon. Now, we are going to tell a guy who has carried us, he will be benched or partially benched so we can play a guy who hasn't done squat since August '23. This is the same guy you have been hyper critical about for months, too.

That might be the most shocking part of all. Add to that missing what appeared to be two of our top 3-4 (maybe 5) SP'ers just about all year only adds to the amazement. The Martin issue has also added to the wonder at how we have done this.

A lot can happen in the next 5-6 weeks: good or bad or meh. I'm certainly feeling more optimistic about 2024 than any other time in over a year, but we know we will hit some snags, going forward. It's how long those snags last, and how we react to them that will tell the full story, when this season is finished. Before the season started, I probably felt there was a 90% chance I'd be on the "Sell, Sell, SELL Bandwagon" by the end of July. That number slowly creeped downward, until the PHI series to now brought it down more quickly. I'd say, I'm somewhere around the 50-50 mark, but it depends on what people consider us as "Buyers" means. I'm not really for trading for rentals, unless it is with players that have little or no future with the Sox anyway, and for the most part, that means not really being serious buyers. I'm thinking Wink, McGuire and maybe Romy might be the top players I might deal w ML experience, and for prospects, maybe Bleis plus 2-3 from Meidroth, Castro, Lugo and Paulino type prospects. Trading Bleis for a rental might be too much for me, even, You rarely see young to pre-prime pitchers with 3+ years of experience traded at the deadline, and that is the type of deal I'd really like. (Those are made in winter.) A trade for a 27-30 year old established SP'er who would agree to an extension at a reasonable FA market rate for 3-4 years would be something I'd like. While I think we could use a big RHB, I don't see how it fits, unless the guy plays 2B or SS, and nobody has yet named a player who fits that need and should be available at the deadline. Our pen looks fine, but adding an arm there might be nice, but at what cost? Maybe I'm too invested in our future to see the light on 2024. Sox teams in the past have surprised me, like 2013 and 2021, but in both of those cases, we pretty much all knew we should not be sellers. I guess there is a first time for everything.