moonslav59

I was not for bringing back ERod at what he got from DET, so wrong, again. He did help the team win, a lot. He had some rough times, that first year with DET.

I knew many did, but yes. No wonder none get to 230 anymore. Hardly any get to 200.

Okay. Lower production. Less IP. Should I be impressed? Encouraged? I happen to think Gio will do better than 2023, but Sale & Paxton did better than most of our pitchers, last year, and we sucked in SP'ing, then, too.

I hope we add an innings eater, but part of me also thinks maybe it's not a bad idea to find out- once-and for-all, if any of these tweeners can start 27+ games and go 160+ IP. I just hope we don't ruin any of them in the attempt.

It's weird how even Price's 230 IP in 2016 has not been topped, since. 229 Alcantara '22 223 Verlander '19 221 Scherzer '18 217 deGrom '18 216 Webb '23 215 Kluber '18 214 Sale '17

Also, Sale + Paxton = 39 GS and nearly 200 IP. I doubt Gio starts even 34 games.

So, you are penalizing him for having too many IP? I guess there are only 49 SP'ers worthy of comparing him to, because they did not "qualify." BTW, tied for 21st in your stat, xFIP is top 43% out of 49 pitchers. While the fact that only 49 pitchers had 300+ IP from '21-'22 highlights just how much more value someone like Monty has for any team, his production level was better than top 43%, when you count 4-5 pitchers per team- you know, the amount every team uses. He pitches more innings than the other 100 SP'ers and much better per inning, but we can't count them. How good are those other 100? Even going to 250 IP, the sample size only grow to 81 pitchers. (Monty is tied for 31st or top 39%) You have to go to 200 IP, a measly 100 per season, to even get to 114 pitchers (105 SP'ers.) That's about 3-4 per team. (33 out of 105 is about top 30%) When I think average, I think where does some one rank among the top 150 SP'er, (5 SP x 30 teams) but even that could b e viewed as not really comparing him to every SP'er to see what average looks like. It's like saying, "He's an average top 50 pitcher in MLB."

We should have brought ERod back. In his starts the team went... 19-4 in '18 26-8 in '19 (0-0 in the COVID season) 19-12 in '21 Of course, wins are team numbers, and he went 20-23 w DET in '22-'23.

Comparing to other like pitchers, who signed around the same time is a valid point, but if someone thinks all 3 were overpaid, it doesn't matter all that much. I brought up how Price did not earn his contract. You bring up how Scherzer did, and yes, luck is a big factor. Looking at the signing, when it was made, and I felt Price had about as nice of a record you could ever hope for. No looming injury issues. He was projected to make a major impact on any team that signed him. I was surprised and shocked we signed him, after the Lester and no over 30 issues. I was glad we signed him, but I knew he'd become a drain on the budget, eventually. I did not expect him to give us just 350 innings years 2-4, but that is hindsight. I felt the 7 years would be a problem, but that's what it took to get him, and I was okay with it, despite knowing it was too much for too long.

It's pretty much a different opinion for every person. When compared to arb players, almost all FA are paid more, so I get your point about comparative signings based on past production and projected future value. In that sense, Price got about what "the going rate" was for stars like he was. Was he worth 2.5 x what Porcello got? I could see the justification for that. (It was more like 1.5 x the AAV.) I thought he was overpaid. Maybe you don't. I thought it was worth it. I don't think he was, now. He helped us get a ring, so I am grateful we had enough funds to have him as insurance.

Agreed, and I'd rather sign a guy like Lauer and let Abreu & Rafaela play more OF, than sign Soler or Duvall.

I'd have overpaid on the Yamo gamble, just like I was fine with Price's. You need to overpay to get the best. Do I think the Price signing was absurd as the Ohtani or Bogey signings? No, but IMO, it was an overpay.

No doubt, some of DD's guys have been a big part of the upgrades, and that should be expected as his farm guys matured. I've never short-changed DD's era or his impact on the current team. I've said, countless times, most of the farm guys he traded away did not amount to much. That does not change the fact that from the time Devers was called up in 2017, we got very little help from the farm, except for maybe Houck and 4 months of Dalbec, until Bello, Casas and Duran in 2023. Some of that is on Ben not DD, but the roster was really bad after the top 18-20 guys. I'm not saying ignore everything else to say that one area improved. I'm not trying to give Bloom all or even most of the credit. We got better in that area. It looks like we got better on the farm, despite little pitching hope. It does help, when building a team to improve in those two areas. We have a ways to go. Maybe 2 solid SP'er- maybe we need more.

This wasn't about what we ended up with. It was about identifying how many holes we had in the 40, right after 2019, and I'm not even counting Betts & Price (or ERod and Sale for 2020, only.) The roster was weak after about #18-20. Once Porcello, Betts and Price were known not to be returning, that number grew to over 20, easily. The 5 guys you mentioned were not guys we felt comfortable giving a key role in 2020. Where would they place in the rankings of the 40 man roster at the end of 2023? How about the others you did not name? All I'm saying is, we improved the bottom 20-22 from crap to mediocrity from Sept 2019 to Sept 2023. Do you disagree? The depth beyond the 40 looks better, too.

Does everyone have to agree that what many players sign for can never be an overpay?

Yes, that's why I added more sentences. I like the signing but thought it was an overpay. Maybe I should not have said "major overpay."

What about from 2021 to 2022, where he was at the 26th percentile in xFIP? (That's not 40-60%.)

How about fangraphs giving him a value of under $100M over his $217/7 year deal? I thought it was a major overpay, due to the 7 years we needed to give him to get him to sign. $32M x 4 would have been more like it. $31M x 5 would have been pushing it, to me. Look, these types of statements are clearly opinion-based. Assigning dollar value to production value is hard enough. Assigning it to projected production value is always a contentious thing.

Of course, some of the largest and longest deals work out for the team. IMO, more than half don't. I don't think Price gave us what we hoped for or expected. I do not think he earned that contract. Scherzer did. I was fine with the Price signing. He looked like as sure of a bet as you could hope for, on the day we signed him. (Scherzer did, too- the year before.) I thought it was a necessary overpay, at the time.

That's not the only way to view something as being an overpay or major one. One could argue, those two were also overpays that ended up working out.

Avoiding context is easier: I get that.

So, all but 7 were expected to help the team win- not hinder it or be near enough to average. You don't win, too often, with 8 stars and 32 replacement level players, or 8 stars, 12 good role players and 24 replacement level players.

That does seem to be what the whole season depends on- along with plus health.

List the 21 not needing an upgrade. (Remember Porcello was a sure goner. We can argue about how we coulda-shoulda kept Betts and maybe Price, but go ahead and count them in your 21.) The 12 Man Foundation: Betts, Bogey, JD, Devers, JBJ, Beni, Vaz Eovaldi, Price, ERod, Porcello (Sale on IL) The Supporting 8 Holt, Moreland, Leon, Marco Hernandez Workman, Barnes, Josh Taylor, Walden The 20 that was in serious need or upgrading, going into 2020 (Some may have forgotten just how bad the bottom of our 40 was, when DD departed.): Brian Johnson (5th SP) Ryan Brasier H Hembree Marco Hernandez Sam Travis DHern Cashner H Velazquez Ryan Weber Colten Brewer Josh A Smith, Lakins, Chacin, Shawaryn, Poyner, T Kelley, C Owings, Gorkys Hernandez The AAA team was basically this: Kyle Hart Daniel McGrath Teddy Stankiewicz Tanner Houck Domingo Tapia Jenrry Mejia Austin Maddox Zach Putnam Erasmo Ramirez Kevin Lenik C: Oscar Hernandez, Jake Romanski 1B: Ockimey & Witte 2B: Deiner Lopez 3B: Dalbec SS: CJ Chatham/ T-W Lin LF: Sturgeon/Brentz CF: Matheny RF: Rusney DH: Chavis Other top prospects below AAA: 3. Casas 6. Groome 7. A Flores (RIP) 9. Feltman 10. Mata 11. Howlett 12. Decker 13. Duran 14. D Diaz 16. Jimenez 17. Northcut 18. Scherff 19. D reyes 20. Schellenger

I felt the Price signing was a major overpay, but a needed one, at the time. We need one, now.