moonslav59

Good to see you back. This does look like a possible trade, but I kinda like the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B, assuming Rafaela stays at SS near FT.

Sounds like a top 2-3 scenario. If you had to guess, who gets the most innings at 2B in 2025, if... Mayer plays SS FT: _____ (I assume Story then DHam) Story plays SS FT: _____ (I'd assume a DHam-Grissom platoon.)

The Sox are 25-13 since May 31st. In those 38 games, nearly 1/4th of the season, here are some numbers: fWAR Player OPS 7.7 Red Sox batters .808 OPS (121 wRC+) 2.1 Duran .908 2.0 Devers 1.060 0.9 Rafaela .837 0.8 DHam .750 0.7 Valdez .973 (demoted) 0.7 O'Neill .834 0.6 Smith .824 0.5 Wong .790 0.2 Abreu .712 (was out for some time) 0.1 Refsnyder .777 & Romy .733 -0.1 Westbrook .693 -0.2 McGuire .458, Dalbec .469 (demoted), Yoshida .662 & Cooper (DFA'd) 11 Batters over .750, including EValdez who was demoted. Pitching fWAR Pitcher ERA- 4.3 Red Sox 94 (95 xFIP-) 0.9 Pivetta 100 0.9 Houck 83 0.7 Jansen 27 0.5 Crawford 58 0.4 Kelly 34 0.3 Booser 56 0.3 Bello 155 0.2 Criswell 87 0.2 Bernardino 94 0.2 Martin 0 (IL) 0.1 Slaten 101 0.1 Winkowski 75 0.0 Keller 100 & Horn 58 -0.2 Anderson 114 -0.3 Weissert 176 12 pitchers with a plus fWAR

Only 5 teams have less losses than the Sox 42, and look how close to 42 some are: 41 LAD 40 NYY 38 BAL 37 CLE (34 PHI is not really 'close.")

Pivetta going Friday v LAA Crawford Saturday. Bello Sunday Houck Monday v COL (Maybe Criswell Tuesday)

No Mayer? (Oh yes, you already traded him.)

If an .804 OPS (.814 vs LHPs as compared to Abreu's is shockingly better) is below his "potential," I'll take it. .845 OPS from '23-'24 .838 since 2021. Career: .963 vs LHPs +2.6 dWAR career

ML or near ML ready prospects/players in the minors with a better OPS than Yorke. Not many are worse on D than he is, either: 1.046 K Campbell (A+/AA, so may not be quite ready) 1.015 Kavadas (DH/1B) .984 M Lugo (DH/LF, but used to be infielder) .851 Westbrook (.693 but .818 OPS in MLB vs LHPs) .851 Dalbec (DH/1B/OF- not good at 2B) .844 Grissom (probably better on D at 2B than Yorke) .839 Mayer (SS in AA) .827 Alvarez (2B in AAA and bats LH'd) .823 Valdez (.783 career v LHPs & was red hot before demotion. Horrible D) .816 Sogard (AAA and bats RH'd. He can play 2B better than Yorke.) .808 Meidroth (AAA, where 2B is likely his best defensive position) .792 Yorke Plus... Romy was 1.088 in AAA and is .746 vs LHPs in MLB in 2024. DHam was .750 in AAA, but is at .745 in MLB w 23 SBs in 63 times on 1 or 2nd base. Platoon: .805 v RHP DHam .818 v LHP Westbrook or .746 v LHP Romy I'm not saying all the guys in red should be called up or added to the 40 before Yorke, but he is clearly not the obvious choice.

They say he will be, but go ahead and sub in Wink or Booser for him.

If Yorke did not bat RH'd, I might wonder why he is on this list. The DHam-Romy platoon at 2B is doing okay. (Rafaela at SS.) Valdez has already shown he can hit (RH'd pitchers.) I'd ass Mayer to the 40, then 26, before Yorke.

I'd trade a big 3 in a deadline deal. In fact I'd trade 2 top 4 like this... Mayer (2) Abreu (swap LHB OF for RHB OF) Bleis (4) any 2 from: Fitts, Sandlin, Winckowski, Valdez, Yorke, Lugo, Meidroth, Paulino, Castro For CF Luis Roberts Jr RHB ('25:$15M, '26:$20M club option ,'27:$20M club option) LHP Garrett Crochet SP (2 arbs remaining) 1. L Duran LF 2. R Roberts CF 3. L Devers 3B 4. R O'Neill RF 5. L Casas 1B (D Smith bench LHB) 6. R Refsnyder- L Yoshida DH 7. L DHam- R Romy 2B 8. R Wong C (McGuire LHB) 9. R Rafaela SS SP: Houck, Crawford, Crochet, Pivetta, Bello (Criswell- 6 man rotation/Long Releif) RP: Jansen, Martin, Hendriks, Slaten, Bernardino, Kelly, Weissert

Top Sox OPS from 2023 to 2024 (250+ PAs, unless noted) 1.019 Campbell .973 Cespedes .956 Gasper .948 Arias .935 Abreu .913 Dalbec (44 HRs) .885 Asencio (234 PAs) .883 Kavadas (38 HRs) .925 OPS from 2022-2024 .877 Teel .875 Asigen (206) .869 Rafaela (36 SBs) .864 Jo Garcia .851 Westbrook .851 Valdez .840 Anthony .834 Alvarez .818 Nunez .817 Salazar (240) .815 Jh Garcia .803 Meidroth (151 BB/138 Ks) .802 Jordan .799 DHam (57 SBs) .798 Musett .797 Hickey (28 HRs) .788 Yorke .786 Sogard .785 Mayer .783 Castro .777 Brannon

There are 8 or 9 players with a better OPS than Yorke, and Yorke sucks on D. Those are the undisputed facts.

2025 (assuming no O'Neill & DSmith) C: Wong, McGuire/Teel 1B: Casas (Romy) 2B: Grissom/DHam/Romy/Valdez/Yorke SS: Story (Rafaela/DHam/Romy/Mayer) 3B: Devers (Romy) LF: Duran (Ref) CF: Rafaela/Anthony RF: Abreu (Anthony/Ref) DH: Ref and Valdez platoon While I think adding a RHB would help our offense, unless the guy adds to our defense, too, I'm not seeing the need as being as great as pitching.

Refsnyder is one of the top 30 OPS guys, this year and top 30 vs LHPs for the last 3 years combined. He can DH, and will have to, if Rafaela ends up back in CF FT in 2025. (Duran-Rafaela-Abreu in OF with Anthony banging on the door.) We also have Valdez, who would be a nice DH vs RHPs. Having a platoon DH is not ideal, especially since both offer nothing on D, when they are not DH'ing, but they'd be way cheaper than Vladdy and may out OPS him in 2025.

What might work out well is that the Sox took some HS players high in the draft under Bloom (Mayer, Anthony, Yorke, Romero, Jordan, E R-C, Zanetello, Anderson) and then started taking college players afterwards (Teel, Campbell, Duffy and now Monmtgomery and picks 2-6th, so maybe they all start maturing about the same time- like in 2-4 years.

Bell, there should be at least one category between big bucks contracts and dumpster dives. Id' say about $20M AAV for 3+ years is one. $10-20M for $3+ years is another. $10-20M/1 or $5-10M for 3+ years is another $4 or 5-9M/1 is close to dumpster, but I would not use the term there. $700K-3-4M sounds about right, to me.

How did drafting Groome and TBall in the first round work out? I'm not saying those two failures should mean we never draft a pitcher, highly again, but taking the best player available is what most GMs do, and for good reason. The idea of trading everyday prospects for pitching is a good strategy, and there is plenty of evidence it works. The problem is, we haven't done it in a long while. The Pedro trade involved trading two top pitching prospects (Nate for Beeks, too), but these relied on or mostly on everyday prospects: Schilling Beckett Sale Lesser pitchers: Peavy for Iggy This winter, we should do it again.

I do think there was a conscious effort to draft more pitchers in the later rounds (5-20th rounds,) but to me, after the 4th round, so many players are valued very closely, so it's hard to tell if they actually drafted more pitchers, on purpose, of it they truly had them as "the best player" in those slots. The fact is, we drafted 2 position players in the top 4 rounds. Is that much different than this? 3 of 4 in '23, '22, '21, '18 2 of 4 in '20, '19, '17, '16 (Groome 1st rd), '14 Yes, different from... 1 of 4 in 2013 (TBall in 1st and Stanky in 2nd)

Deadline deals... (2 months + maybe playoffs)

If you had to guess, if and when healthy, does he win the 2B job from DHam/Valdez/Romy/Yorke in 2025? (assuming Story at SS not DHam/Romy/Mayer)

Here is a list or players on teams that might be sellers. It does not mean they are available or worth trading for: (In order of games behind WC slot and with 2024 fWAR 1.0+ pitchers/ 2.0+ batter w some notables under 2.0) -27.5 CWS 3.9 Crochet 2.7 Fedde 1.2 Robert Jr. 0.9 DeJong -17.5 OAK 1.8 M Miller 3.0 Rooker 1.4 Bleday -16.5 MIA 1.4 Chisholm -16.0 COL 1.7 Feltner 2.9 B Doyle 2.2 McMahon 2.1 Tovar -12.5 LAA 1.3 Sandoval 1.2 T Anderson 1.0 Soriano -9.5 TOR 2.0 Kikuchi 2.0 Bassitt 1.6 Gausman 0.2 Berrios 2.1 Varsho 2.0 I Kiner-Falefa 1.5 Vlad -7.5 TEX 1.9 J Gray 1.7 Nate 1.4 Heaney 1.4 Robertson 1.3 K Yates 3.2 Josh Smith 2.5 C Seager 2.5 M Semien -7.0 DET 3.4 Skubal 2.3 R Olsen 2.1 Flaherty 1.3 Mize 3.0 R Greene -6.0 WSH 2.5 Gore 1.8 Irvin 1.7 T Williams 1.5 M Parker 1.1 Floro 2.2 CJ Abrams 1.8 L Garcia Jr 0.6 Winker -5.5 TBR 1.6 Eflin 1.5 Littell 1.3 Pepiot 1.0 Bradley 3.0 Paredes 0.4 Arozarena Possible: -3.5 CHC 2.5 Imanaga 1.8 Steele 1.5 Taillon 1.3 B Brown 0.9 Leiter Jr 2.2 M Busch 2.0 Hoerner 2.0 Happ 1.4 Suzuki 1.2 Swanson 0,8 Bellinger -3.0 SFG 2.9 L Webb 1.0 R Walker 3.5 P Bailey 2.4 M Chapman 2.4 H Ramos 1.1 Yaz -3.0 CIN 2.3 H Greene 1.6 N Martinez 1.3 Lodolo 1.0 F Cruz 4.4 E de la Cruz 2.4 India -1.5 PIT 1.7 M Keller 1.5 J Jones 1.2 L Ortiz 2.0 B Reynolds 1.7 O Cruz

What would be the cost of a TOTR rental? IMO, not a top 3, and maybe not a top 5 or 6, either.

I think rentals might be gotten for Paulino or Casstro or maybe Lugo + Valdez/Jordan.

I'm a big fan of Abreu, and I loved the Vaz trade, but I also think other GMs like him, too. We appear to have some blocked prospects that are ML or near ML ready and some young ML'ers we could package together to get a better player than Abreu, but who bats RH'd. We lose O'Neill, this winter, so it would help for 2025 and beyond, too. Abreu plus a combination of 1-3 from these guys for a RHB who plays RF: Valdez McGuire Yorke Lugo Meidroth Paulino Castro Romero Kavadas Hickey, Jordan, Wikelman, Guerrero, ICoffey, T Miller, McDonough, Decker Mata (out of options and would be nice to trade, soon) Winckowski (for the right guy, and if he is still half in the doghouse)