moonslav59

I'm not sure how waivers work, but can we pull Mata back off waivers, if someone claims him? I would not be torn up, if we lose him, but the guy was very highly ranked by soxprospects.com, at various points, so maybe he has something. (Yes, I know, there is a long list of top 3 ranked pitching prospects that never amounted to squat.)

Bloom tried to add young or younger pitchers in other ways than IFA and drafting, too. Whitlock, Winckowski, Pivetta (not real young when added,) Schreiber, Bernardino, Kelly and countless flameouts. Until we draft again, it's hard to know if Brez will change our drafting strategy. We do know little changed in this IFA signing phase. Only one out of the 7 players give a $200K or higher signing bonus was a pitcher. (Dalvinson Reyes at $450K) To be fair, the next two down the list were pitchers at $175K and $140K, making it 3 of the top 9. How Soon Is Now?

They are probably kicking themselves for not trading him before his injury was discovered.

Indeed. I made the same point about him being labelled "mediocre." We used 28 pitchers in the pen, last year! YES-- 28! Hell, 23 pitched more than 6 innings, and 19 pitched 11+ IP. It was a recycling bin. Where would Schreiber fall in those rankings?

Is this just 2023, after coming off the 60 day IL? What were his 2022 numbers like? Or, 2022-2023, combined? (Where do you find these numbers?)

You don't see an upgrade from 30th to around 15th at 2B as being significant? We don't need GG at 2B to see a huge improvement over '23. Yoshida at DH has to improve LF. Casas showed growth on D at 1B, as 2023 finished out. CF depends on how much Rafaela plays there. The Duran-Duvall combo of '23 was pretty bad.

OPS+ factors in the park played in.

Makes sense. Maybe Wikelman will be promoted from AA to AAA, at some point. soxprospects.com has 6 starters listed at AA. I find them "interesting," too. Wikelman, Dobbins, Bastardo, I Coffey, Song & Penrod. They also have Rogers and Duffy as part of 6 starters listed for Greenville. Out of those 12, I see 6 or 7 with some serious promise, but not to be a 1/2 SP'er, ever. They still have Wink as the #1 SP'er for AAA, followed by Walter, Criswell, Fitts, Gambrell & Van Belle.

I'm starting to see a glimmer of hope, but adding a decent SP would be a big step, even if just Clevinger. Adding Houck to the pen would be a big boost. Rotation- about the same. Pen- about the same. Defense- significantly better. Offense- should be better.

The rotation looks about the same as last year- same with the pen. Defense is surely better. Offense is up for debate, but I think our O will improve at SS, 2B, 1B, 3B and maybe C and LF. RF might be about the same. DH might be worse. CF offense should be significantly worse. 75 wins is an okay guess, but why say 75 max. We won 78, last year. How many ALE teams got better? 1 maybe 2?

Or, just have a fire sale on all 1 year guys.

They would be a tandem choice.

Greed is the American way. Except for baseball.

I can understand thinking 70 or 75, but not the max part.

I thought I was pessimistic.

I don't think anyone knows, and if you asked each of the many "honchos," you'd probably get different answers from each. If it's $200M, cots has us $10M under. Spotrac has us about $15M under. Maybe, trading Jansen would allow us to sign Monty, but I doubt that happens.

That kind of example happens to every team, at several positions, every year. Even returning players often have wildly different projections and final numbers from one year to the next. I project our offense from 2023 to 2024 will improve at C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B. It will be about the same in LF & RF. It will drop at DH and CF. I project our defense will improve slightly at C, 1B, 3B and LF. It will improve a lot at SS, 2B and hopefully CF (Rafaela wins the job). It may get worse in RF. Our pitching is hard to project. Gio & Bello vs Bello, Sale and Paxton at the 1-2 slots? Even? Pivetta, Crawford & Houck vs Pivetta, Crawford & Houck at the 3-4-5 slots? Even? Whitlock, Kluber plus 16 games of "openers" vs Whitlock, Murphy, Fitts & Walter? Even? (Remember, even= sucks.) The pen? 1/2: Jansen & Martin vs Jansen 3.63 in 45 IP & Martin 1.05 in 51 IP -- probably worse 3/4: Winckowski & Whitlock vs Wink 2.92 in 83 & Pivetta 3.07 in 56 IP-- likely worse 5/6: Campbell & Bernardino vs Bernardino 3.46 in 42 & Schreiber 3.83 in 45-- likely the same 7/8: Slaten & Mata vs Murphy 4.91 in 48 & Bleier 5.28 in 31-- maybe the same after 8: Murphy, Fitts, Weissert, Z Kelly, Criswell, Walter, Guerrero -- maybe better 2023: 5.46 Llovera (30 IP) 4.26 Jacques (25) 6.26 Walter (23) 1.66 Crawford (22) 7.29 Brasier (21) 6.27 K Ort (19) 6.23 Garza (17) 9.45 Kluber (13) 6.55 Joely (11) 6.55 Robertson (11)

Sox and Casas have had extension talks. Casas indicates the Sox did not come close to what he wants. No surprise, here. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/red-sox-triston-casas-have-discussed-possible-extension.html

OAA had us last, and it wasn't close: -50 BOS -37 CIN -29 MIA -21 LAA When you are as bad as the #27 & #28 teams, combined, that is horrific! That's way more than 2 losses. 50 more outs, our pitchers had to face, over average. 90 more outs than the best team! Up the middle D: 30th in CF (-2) Let's hope we see more of Rafaela or Abreu than Duran in CF. We could improve here, by a lot, if Duran stays in LF. 30th at 2B (-13) Grissom should bring us near the norm. 23rd at SS (-3) Story brought us from worst to 23rd in just a couple months. We can be top 5-10 at SS in '24. The corners: 29th at 1B (-10) Let's hope Casas continues to show the improvement he showed over 2023. 28th at 3B (-12) Devers has had better seasons than this. How will he do in '24? Sox in '22 were at 18th place (-4) and 2nd in 2019 at +17! 24th in LF (-10) Less Yoshida in LF should move us up, here. 9th in RF (0) the loss of Dugo could hurt, but Abreu looks okay and O'Neill might be, too.

So, 72-88, then. I'd say 70-86. (mid point 78)

Here is what we lost and gained, since spring 2023: Graduated: 2. Casas 15. EValdez 17. Murphy 27. Z Kelly NR Bernardino (added in '23, too) & Jacques Lost to Rule 5 13. Drohan NR R Fernandez Trades NR Victor Santos & Nick Robertson (O'Neill) Added since the end of 2022: 3. Teel (drafted) 10. Cespedes (IFA) 11. R Fitts (Dugo trade) 12. Zanetello (drafted) ??, D Sandlin (Schreiber trade) not rated, yet 22. A Anderson (drafted) 24. J Slated (Rule 5) 31. F Arias (IFA) 46. K Campbell (drafted) 49. J Riemer (drafted) 50. H Olivares (MiLFA) 57. C Early (drafted) 58. N Judice (Dugo trade) NR (still a prospect?) I Campbell (Urias trade) & Weissert (Dugo trade) NR Jorge Benitez & others (minor league FAs)

Soxprospects.com has theirs: https://www.soxprospects.com/history.htm 1 Marcelo Mayer 2 Triston Casas 3 Miguel Bleis 4 Ceddanne Rafaela 5 Bryan Mata 6 Nick Yorke 7 Mikey Romero 8 Luis Perales 9 Brandon Walter 10 Eddinson Paulino 11 Roman Anthony 12 Matthew Lugo 13 Shane Drohan 14 Wilkelman Gonzalez 15 Enmanuel Valdez 16 Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz 17 Chris Murphy 18 Blaze Jordan 19 Nathan Hickey 20 Niko Kavadas 21 Marvin Alcantara 22 Brainer Bonaci 24 Wilyer Abreu 25 Luis Guerrero

MLBTR on Sandlin... Sandlin brings some intriguing potential to the table, as the righty (who turns 23 next week) has a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 32.38% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 career minor league innings. An 11th-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Sandlin had his 2023 season cut short by a lat injury, and he made only two appearances at the high-A level before being sidelined. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked Sandlin as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals’ farm system, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the righty seventh. Baseball America was slightly more pessimistic in ranking Sandlin only 20th, but still felt Sandlin might develop into at least a good reliever based on his two primary pitches —- a high 90s fastball and a plus slider. If his changeup and curveball can also develop, Sandlin can perhaps stick in the rotation, though he’s still something of a wild card considering that he hasn’t yet pitched much in pro ball.

Most have the Royals farm ranked bottom 10, so it's hard to know just how good David Sandlin is. Here is my top 25: 1. Anthony 2. Teel 3. Mayer 4. Rafaela 5. Bleis 6. Abreu 7. Cespedes 8. Yorke 9. Zanetello 10. Joh Garcia 11. Perales 12. Wikelman 13. Fitts 14. Sandlin 15. Castro 16. Monegro 17. Anderson 18. Hickey 19. Meidroth 20. Slaten 21. Romero 22. Guerrero 23. Arias 24. Jordan 25. E R-C

I don't think it's as hard as some think it is. You just have to be prepared to take the best offer, even if you think it's not good enough. Try for the best, but take the best offered. This season, we don't have many big return trade chips, but we have a few that could bring back value, especially if they are having good years. 1 year guys: Martin Jansen (may be traded before opening day) Gio O'Neill Pivetta Refsnyder (option) Criswell 2 year guy McGuire Longer term guys who might be traded: Duran (5 yrs) Yoshida (4 yrs) Story (4 yrs + option)