moonslav59

At $12M, it looks that way.

Steamer has much different rankings and projections: 14. Devers 4.8 61. Casas 3.0 116. Grissom 2.1 138. Story 1.8 142. Yoshida 1.7 150. O'Neill 1.7 197. Duran 1.3 222. Abreu 1.1 44. Bello 2.5 48. Giolito 2.3 70. Pivetta 2.0 80. Houck 1.8 91. Crawford 1.7 158. Whitlock 0.9 Bello & Gio #2's Pivetta & Houck #3's Crawford #4 No #1, but no #5, either. With 4 pitchers in the 2-3 range, it actually makes it a plus, on paper. The average ranking of our 5 is a 66.7, and the league avg should be 75. 21. Snell 3.3 22. Monty 3.2

If you go by the 0-30 is a #1, 31-60 is a #2.... Our rotation looks like this... Pitching: 40. Giolito 2.5 #2 55. Bello 2.3 #2 94. Whitlock 1.9 #4 but likely will be in the pen. 113. Crawford 1.6 #4 120. Fitts 1.6 #5 (in AAA) 161. Pivetta 1.3 #6 177. Walter 1.2 #6 193. Wink 1.2 203. Houck 1.2 #7 #2 Gio #2 Bello #4 Crawford #6 Pivetta #7 Houck

ZIPS fWAR Projections and player rankings: 33. Devers 3.0 91. Grissom 2.6 103. Story 2.4 117. O'Neill 2.3 131. Yoshida 2.1 134. Rafaela 2.1 168. Casas 1.9 (.846 OPS but -12.7 on D) 192 Teel 1.8 (456 PAs) 202. Abreu 1.7 208. DHam 1.7 (496 PAs) 231. Duran 1.6 249. EValdez 1.5 Pitching: 40. Giolito 2.5 55. Bello 2.3 94. Whitlock 1.9 113. Crawford 1.6 120. Fitts 1.6 161. Pivetta 1.3 177. Walter 1.2 193. Wink 1.2 203. Houck 1.2 Note: 19. Snell 3.1 25. Monty 2.9 117. Clevinger 1.6 124 German 1.5 155. Lorenzen 1.3 251. Lauer 1.1

Here is one way to view the changes from 2023 to 2024: Sale & Paxton for Giolito & more starts from Pivetta. Kluber for more starts from Houck & Crawford. Duvall for O'Neill. Kike & Chang for more time from Story Arroyo, Urias & Kike for Grissom. Turner for Yoshida (to DH), but really for more playing time from Duran, Abreu & Rafaela. Dugo for more playing time from Duran, Abreu, Rafaela and maybe Refsnyder (or more PAs from O'Neill over the 353 Duvall gave us- see Duvall.) Schreiber for Hendricks Bleier, Llovera, Ort, Brasier & others for Campbell, Slaten, Mata, Weissert and others.

Liam Hendriks will earn $2MM in 2024 and $6MM in 2025. There’s also a $2MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM. The $10MM worth of incentives in the deal are all tied to Hendriks’ 2025 performance. There are no incentives tied to the 2024 season.

Let's not walk down the politics road, again.

I'm still hoping for Monty, even if it means trading Jansen's salary.

Because we are mediocre.

As long as Rafaela or Abreu are in CF, I think it is beyond potential. Rafaela in CF, Abreu in RF and Duran/O'Neill in LF is the ideal defensive OF, but I think we need Duran & O'Neill's bats in the line-up almost everyday. Duran has yet to prove he can hit lefties, consistently, but when both are healthy, which might not be all that often, they should NOT platoon. That is where things start to get dicey. Duran LF, Rafaela/Abreu CF and O'Neill in RF, when all are healthy is still a step up on OF D. To me, the IF depth is a lock to be better. Only injuries can change that.

If I had to pick 3 guys that could make or break this season, I'd go with... Story Giolito Grissom The next 3 might be... Duran Pivetta Crawford Okay, I'll go 9... O'Neill Rafaela Houck I'm banking on Devers, Casas and Bello to be steady.

I'll guess no.

Maybe Pedey should start putting together a new ownership group with Pedro, Papi and ____.

Out of Whitlock, Wink and Houck, it does make sense that he'd be the one that starts, but I agree, he should be in the pen. I still think our staff could be greatly improved by signing a solid, innings eater SP'er and having Houck in the pen or as the 6th starter. I doubt it happens. I'd love to read we signed Monty, tomorrow morning, but I'm beyond even hoping for that. I'm even thinking Clevinger is a pipe dream. I find myself thinking a guy like Bauer might be worth a shot. Things are that bad. Dream on.

Agreed. Your “won’t say the “C” word is very offensive. I mean, where do you come up with this hateful thoughts?

The defensive improvement should be even better.

..and they say they improved the procedure.

Agreed. If Wink is not on the opening day 13 staff, I will be shocked. It could only happen with no injuries, and Slaten & Mata looking good enough to want to keep on the team. Even then, we could start Campbell, Murphy or Weisser in AAA. If the idea is to definitively make Wink a SP'er, again, I think they can give him some 4-5 IP relief outings in April, every 4-5 days, until we shake things out. Wink is too good to put in AAA.

They can add Fitts (or Gambrell), once they have an IL placement, DFA Mata, Jacques or send Slaten back. [/b]

I think Snell goes to the Yanks, Bellinger to SFG and Monty is a total guess- maybe TOR. I'm thinking the best we can hope for is Clevinger or Bauer. Sad, but maybe even these are pipe dreams.

It won't be easy replacing Turner and Duvall, but remember, Duvall just gave us 353 PAs. Dugo was 3rd in PAs for the team, but posted a 100 OPS+. So, we have to replace 979 PAs by Turner (114 OPS+) and Duvall 119 OPS+)- call is a 116 OPS+ and 602 PAs from Dugo at 100 OPS+. Combined, that's nearly 1600 PAs at an OPS+ of about a 110 OPS+. That looks daunting, but don't forget to look at who else we are replacing: 323 PAs of Kike at a 62 OPS+ 206 from Arroyo at 70 112 from Chang at 45 (Yes, that bad) 109 from Urias at 91 ~160 from Tapia 90, DHam 22, Alfaro 5 and CHam -49. That's over 900 PAs at an awful OPS+ of maybe around a 60 or 65. I'm not sure what the total OPS+ lost is, but my guess is, it is around 100 in 2500 PAs. How do we replace those 2500 PAs? Maybe... PAs Player 3 year OPS+ (2023 OPS+) +500 Grissom 105 (78- still better than Arroyo) +450 O'Neill 120 (94- could equal the 100 by Dugo) +400 Story 95 (52- he just has to be closer or over 95 than 52.) +200 Duran 96 (121- kinda "dicey, too.) +100 Casas 126 (129) +100 Reyes 91 (94) Here is where it gets dicey... +350 Abreu 132 (SSS) +350 Rafaela 78 (SSS) +50 3rd catcher

I think he has multiple poster accounts.

As much as we have crapped on Sale and Paxton, the last couple years, they were 4th and 5th in SP IP for the team, last year and had the 3rd and 4th best ERAs out of our 8 SP'ers with 7 plus starts. Combined, they started 39 games and were 1 & 1/3 of an inning from 200 IP. That seems hard to replace by Gio, as the most he can start is maybe 33-34 games. However, those two are not the only SP'ers we lost and need to replace. (Team SP ERA: 4.68 as a reference point) 4.30 Sale 20 GS/103 IP 4.50 Paxton 19 GS/96 IP 6.26 Kluber 9 GS/42 IP plus 16 GS'd by openers and the likes of Dermody & Garza In the 47 GS by Sale, Paxton & Kluber, they combined for a 4.72 ERA (126 ER in 240.1 IP). That is slightly higher than the team SP ERA. The numbers for those 16 scrub starts: 5.47 ERA (24.2 IP and 15 ERs) They averages about 1 1/2 IP per start, which really taxed the pen, mightily, and often the opener was a RP'er. So, who gets the 47 GS lost plus the 16 odd starts? That's 62 GS to replace. (4.79 ERA in those 62 GS.) Here is my stab at the question, assuming everyone is healthy. Perfect world: (2023 ERAs as SP'ers) +32 Giolito 4.88 +14 Pivetta (16>30) 4.66 +7 Houck (21>28) 5.01 +6 Crawford (23>29) 4.51 +3 Bello (28>31) 4.24 It's nearly impossible to use just 5 SP'ers over a season, so I know this won't happen, but this may show we can come close to the same sucky numbers our rotation put up, last year, or even better, assuming Gio snaps out of his funk, and nobody shits the bed in '24. Who is the 6th starter? Whitlock? Winckowski? Criswell? Murphy/Walter/Fitts? I think one key to winning more than expected is to limit the starts by anyone below those 5 SP'ers.

JH is just a JH apologist.

Agreed, if he's not traded.