moonslav59

Garver is a salary dump. They'd hand him away for no return. Castillo is aging and showing signs of decline. His value has risen and FA costs for similar pitchers are coming in above expectations.. They need a 3Bman and middle IF'er, badly. They'd get Arenado & Mayer, along with Fitts. The money is close to even, especially if we add $5M a year to the offer. (COL is already paying $5M a year for Arenado.) We may have to improve the offer, and I'm sure harmony would dislike the offer. I'm not sure STL likes the offer either. I was working off the framework of an offer suggested in some article. Adding Yoshida to the deal could break any deal, even with a chink of money included or by taking away Arenado's larger contract. Helsley is real good, but he has just 1 year of control. If STL is looking to rebuild, trading Arenado and Helsley makes a ton of sense. I'm not sure if they like Cespedes and Arias. Maybe they like Bleis, JH Garcia or Romero. Maybe they insist on Mayer or Teel. Maybe this would be more to the liking of SEA & STL: TO BOS: Castillo, Helsley, Garver TO SEA: Arenado (+$5M/yr from BOS), Mayer, Meidroth, Fitts TO STL: Yoshida (+5M/yr from BOS), Arias, Priester, Cespedes (Maybe Abreu can be worked into the deal and subtract a prospect or two.)

The good thing is, Soto should make his choice, soon, so many will still be on the board to pivot to. I'm guessing we are already talking to the agents to Burnes, Fried, Bregman, Adames and hopefully Scott, Hoffman or Estevez.

Not a single player has signed, so far, that is the best choice at a position we need. I'm pretty sure the 2nd and third best chocies are still on the board, right now, except maybe catcher, as D Jansen & Higgy signed, already. SP: Burnes & Fried (Snell signed) RP: Scott, Hoffman, Estevez (Holmes signed as SP) Big Bat or best RHB that fits: Soto, Bregman, Adames, Teoscar (no big bat signing, so far- not even Alfonso or Walker) Even most of the best second tier players are still on the board: Flaherty, Nate, Manaea, Santander & O'Neill I sure hope, Snell, Kikuchi, Severino and Holmes were not our Plan A guys.

Some of these placements are a stretch, but here are players that can play at various positions: C Wong, Gasper, Teel 1B Casas, (Devers,) Romy, Wong, Gasper 2B Campbell, DHam, Grissom, (Story,) Mayer, Meidroth, EValdez, Sogard, Wong/Gasper SS Story, Romy, Mayer, DHam, Meidroth, Grissom 3B Devers, Grissom, (Campbell,) Romy, Meidroth, Eaton LF Duran, (Anthony, Abreu, ) Refsnyder, Campbell CF Anthony, Rafaela, (Duran, Abreu,) Campbell RF Abreu (Anthony,) Campbell, Refsnyder DH: Yoshida (Casas, Devers) Refsnyder, EValdez

We might have to pay SEA $5M a year, too.

I'd be just as happy with Burnes and Fried vs Soto. The AAV would be higher, but the risk is spread over two guys and for about half the years, although it could be 7 yrs + 7 yrs to 14 yrs. I seriously doubt we can or will ever be able to score the two best SP'ers in one winter, especially when the drop off to the next tier seems pretty big. It might be hard for us to just get this: Burnes or Fried Scott Bregman, Adames or Teoscar Carson Kelly or Elias Diaz (C on 1 year deal)

Top FAs still on the market that may fit with the Sox. A++ Soto A+ Burnes and Fried A Bregman and Adames (move Devers to 1B/DH) A Scott A- Flaherty, Manaea, Eovaldi B+ Hoffman, Estevez B+ Teoscar, Santander, O'Neill B Minter, Yates, Kittredge B- Pivetta, Heaney, Quintana B- Alonso, Walker (Casas to DH or trade) Did I miss anyone?

Yes, that is clearly what I said and meant. That's what I'm all about and always have been.

Holmes to Mets. $38M/3 (a bit more than what MLBTR projected.)

Bieber re-signs with CLE. TWard cleared waivers and stays in BAL system.

Too bad only 2-3 can actually field their IF position well.

I feel the same way, but I have to say, I can't help myself on the hope train. My expectation train was derailed.

I think we trade Abreu- with or without Soto, and it will likely be for pitching, not a RHB. I think Campbell might be the RHB we need.

Okay, but my issue was only over the two steps ahead comment. I'll agree they have been at least 2 steps ahead of the Sox, since 2018, but not every team- not even one step with some. They've had more regular season success than almost everyone, except maybe Houston, but the time frame chosen has a lot to do with any rankings by "steps." They get the FAs they want. In that sense, they could be viewed as several steps ahead of everyone or all but a couple teams (not HOU.) BTW, I do think 2020 counts, but it does not carry the exact same weight as a full season champ. If you take away Houston's ring during their cheat year, that opens up a can of worms on other teams that cheated, too. Going by rings, only BOS: 1 in 7 years. 4 in 21 years LAD: 2 in 5 years. 2 in 36. HOU: 2 in 8 years. 2 in forever. (7 straight ALCS in these 8 years) NYY: 1 in 16 years. 5 in 29 years. ATL: 1 in last 4 years, 1 in 29 years TEX: 1 in 2 years. 1 in forever. PHI

I agree, and despite our issues against LHPs and the loss of O'Neill, I think our offense will be fine. We also have 3-5 top prospects, all of whom are non pitchers, looking very close to ML readiness. Most have a very nice offensive profile, although only Campbell and Meidroth bat righty. I also think we could probably make a sideways move, by trading a LHB for a RHB of near equal abilities, except with more advantageous splits vs lefties. I doubt Devers hits .686 vs LHPs, next season. (He was at .824 in '23. Casas has a pretty nice .772 OPS v LHPs and missed most of '24. I hate to put a lot of trust and hopes into a Story return, but he could make a big difference on D and O v LHPs.

Good to see you back, Thunder. Nice post.

Pedro, "You should play for the team that no longer wanted me as I aged." Manny, "You should go play for the team I disliked, almost from day 1." Papi has a much different story. I'm not saying Pedro has any ill will against the Sox, but I just found it interesting he went to pitch for the Mets, and the Soto deal may be down to BOS v NYM. Just a conversational point. Feel free to not think it's worth talking about.

You know my views on how catchers handle a pitching staff much better or worse than others. I don't feel like going through that, again and again.

Fair enough. Take it away and HOU still has more league championship appearances than everyone else, even the top 2 combined. Again, this is about two steps ahead, not the Dodgers sucked.

My point was not that they have had little success, but only that they have not been "2 steps" ahead of everyone else, except maybe with spending. They were smart enough to trade for Betts and then extend him. Fine. Count 2020 as equal to other seasons. The Astros have 2 rings and had 7 straight ALCS appearances. Would you really say the Dodgers have been 2 steps ahead of them, or even one baby step ahead? How far back do we go on this? If it's 2004, have they been ahead of us? SF? STL?

I'm pretty sure the taxes are higher in NY, and I'm certain the cost of living is higher. Maybe it doesn't total $50M over 13-15 years, but it might come close enough to tip the decision in our way. The Dominican connection is an interesting area of conversation. It's kind of funny that Pedro ended up a Met. Manny wanted out of Boston early in his contract, then all but demanded a trade, later on. Papi is the only one of the big 3 to stay.

There is more to catching than those three areas. I'll leave it at that.

It could be both. The Sox ask for the "offer it will take," and if they are not at a yes, they will leave the meeting with their final offer presented and maybe an expiration date. (That may not matter, if Soto is close to a decision, as is.) It sounds like a way to say to Soto, "If you want to play for Boston, what will you take, even if it may be less than the Mets' offer." We should already know what our highest point is. We should be able to say yes or no, if they give an actual number. If BorA$$ says, we'll get back to you with a number, of we won't bargain like this, then we make our highest offer and walk away.

You think they only make good deals? One ring with all that spending, unless you count 2020, is the model of efficiency and being 2 steps ahead of everyone? Maybe 3 steps ahead on spending, but I do not think they are the model for good deals. Sure, you spend like that, some deals will work, and you'll probably win a ring, here and there. That does not put them ahead of all other teams, and not by 2 steps for sure. DD has spent a lot, buy has a better success rate on his deals and has as many full season rings as LA. Texas has spent large and has 1 ring, too. The Astros have spent way more wisely and made the ALCS 7 years in a row with 2 recent rings. The Dodgers are two steps ahead of these teams?

Vaz is not good on D, either. Jeffers would just be a bridge to Teel, and another RHB, who could DH or PH. He has real power. 40th in ISO from 2023-2024 (800+ PAs) 56th in SLG (higher than Raleigh, Reynolds, Bregman & Chapman) We need RHB power. I'm not happy with the D, either.