moonslav59

True, but your word "several" goes back just 2 years. JH increased spending by $28.5M from 2021 (a playoff season) to 2022. That was the 3rd biggest jump in spending under JH. $47M jump from '17>'18 $30M jump from '09>'10 What killed us is the fact that we saw a $60M slash from '19>'20, and those effects have lingered for 4 years.

I'm not going to disagree, but none of us have any idea how much of a winter spending budget Brez will be handed, and perhaps more importantly, how much will he be allowed to give in longer term deals. I do not believe Sox Nation is content with .500. Many may have bought the "sham" for a year or two, and 2021 really helped JH & Co. continue the deception, but I do not think they actually believe they can continue this for much longer. Again, I'm not predicting or expecting even an uptick in spending, let alone a sizable one, but we just don't know. You can look at the last 2-3 year, 3-5 years and call that the definitive trend that is surely going to continue. I'm saying we don't know. You can look at JH's whole era and see so many ups and downs, with several 2 year below the tax line seasons in a row, long ago, but nothing that really compares to the post 2018 timeframe. A 6 year sample size is large, but despite the refusal to bring back Kimbrell & Kelly or replace them, in kind, we still led the league in spending in 2019, so the sample size really is 5 years long, perhaps beginning with the Betts & Price trade and not replacing the money spent on Porcello and later, other players.. Now, if you want to use the larger sample size of 5 years, then you cannot ignore the fact that there is not 5 year trend of cutting salary. The real trend is other teams have started to spend more than we did- some much more. CB Tax line: $185M in 2020 $208M in 2021 236M in 2022 226M in 2023 223M in 2024 I'm not seeing a sure bet trend of budget cutting, here. If you start from 2022, yes, we have cut 2 years in a row, but looking back at JH's budgets, you can find several times with 2 year budget cutting. These two were $10M and then $3M. In the past, we saw a $14M cut in just one year (2004 to 2005.) That was a bigger cut than these last 2 years combined. Fans complained then, too. We saw a 2 year cut from 2007 to 2009 ($155>147>140.) That two year decline was $15M, again, more than these last 2 years, combined. We also saw a $13M decline from 2016 to 2017. Another one year decline equal to this recent 2 year decline. All I'm saying is that there is evidence that JH is an up and down spender, and that this could just be "another" down stretch of 2 years. The bad part about this one is that it has not been too far removed from the one massive cut from 2019 to 2020. The one that set us back light years. That cut was nearly $60M and cannot be ignored or including in the context of this recent 2 year decline. Compound all this with the fact that 3-4 teams have increased spending exponentially and another 4-5 have significantly increased spending, and the effect is staggering. (It looks like 3 straight years of 78-84 is possible.) I'm not counting on even equal spending from 2024. I'm not counting on slightly more spending, although I do think we might spend up to the tax line- maybe a $15-17M increase from 2024. I''m far from expecting us to go over the tax line in 2025, but I do think it is possible we do, at some point after 2025. To me, with all the salary coming off the books, this winter, it would be easy for JH to cut or keep the budget the same. I hope he doesn't. I think even keeping the budget the same would give Brez a sizable winter budget, if coupled with a big trade might be enough to get us to the next level, but IMO, we need to spend up to the line to have a shot at being serious 2025 contenders. And, this would likely need a big trade or two, along with an increased budget. I don't think that is likely.

Sadly, this is a fitting way to end the season.

The fat lady is singing, loudly.

He was a very good hitter, but to me, trading Burleson was unforgivable. That wasn't Lansford's fault, but the trade poisoned the whole team vibe, to me.

I hope so, too, but not if we make little or no effort to significantly upgrade the pitching staff. I'd rather gain an extra year for at least one of them by holding them back a few weeks without a decent pitching staff. While making the playoffs is a worthy goal, and I'd love to see us make it, after 3 pretty bad years, if we will not be serious contenders, I'd rather add a year 5-6 years from now. These two could be beasts in 6 years. That being said, I'd be fine with both on the opening day roster- maybe even Mayer, too.

Anthony is feared. Tonight, he went 1-1 with a 2B and 4BBs! (HJis OPS is now .982.) Binelas went 3-5 w an HR (1.800 OPS in a tiny sample size.)

The thing is, we could sweep MIN and still see the "tragic number" go down to 4 or 5. Detroit is making a move.

I know a lot has been said about the benefits of finding a taker for Yoshida and a big chunk of his contract, or returning a big contract to offset the cost per team. To me, it would really set up our 26 man roster, very well. We could pencil in Anthony to RF and have an Abreu-Refsnyder platoon at DH, with them both also acting as reserve OF depth. (Duran is out: Ref or Abreu play LF. Rafaela is out: Anthony plays CF & Abreu RF or Duran plays CF and Abreu/Ref play LF. Anthony is out: Abreu plays RF) I'm not expecting anything special in return. It might be nice to get an over-priced pitcher, who still has some value (maybe a LH RP'er or 6th SP.) Maybe we just get a far away prospect to clear a space on the 40. I think this should be the first attempt. If no takers, or the return cash payments are too high, then the next likely trade candidate is Abreu. There has been some disagreement over his value and what return value we might be able to get for him, alone or in a package with someone like DHam or a lower value pitcher or prospect to sweeten the return. After Abreu, we start getting into some complicated territory, such as the idea to trade Casas, move Devers to 1B and have someone play 3B (Story, Mayer, Meidroth or sign someone.) Other ideas might be to trade a top 4 prospects, but we better pick the right one to trade, and get the right return. I'm not sure if JH & Co. are even considering this idea. We could also include a pitcher in any deal, as long as the pitcher get back is significantly better and has several years of control, as well- maybe Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Crawford or Criswell as part of a bigger package. I realize these 2 and 3 for 1 deals are very hard to make in November, because teams are making difficult Rule 5 decisions and are squeezing the 40 man roster, as it is. For those teams, maybe we have to take back an unwanted player making too much money, just to get the team to accept. (Guys like Garver & Hanigan have been mentioned several times, recently, but other teams have the same types of players, they would not mind unloading. IMO, we should try to avoid trading a top 4 prospect, but I'm not dead set against the idea. We have to give to get, and if the "get" is good enough, then we may have to bite the bullet and just do it. I think we've beaten the SEA ideas to death, and deals for Crochet have been suggested, a lot, but what other pitchers might be out there?

Yes, they place a naked lady behind 3B for distraction purposes.

I'm looking at your SP'ers: 129 Woo 120 Miller 113 Gilbert (106 in '23) 101 Castillo (118 in '23) & Kirby (118 in '23) To replace Pivetta 99

Yes, that was why I separated those.

Best ERA- on Sox, so far this year... (14 pitchers with 40+ IP) ERA-: Slaten 71, Houck 75, Martin 78, Booser & Weissert 79, Jansen 80, Criswell 90 SIERA: Martin 2.35, Slaten 2.71, Pivetta 3.23, Jansen 3.44, Houck & Bernardino 3.69 xFIP-: Martin 61, Slaten 69, Pivetta 83, Houck 86, Bello 94 K%-BB%: Martin 28, Pivetta 24, Slaten 23, Jansen 19, Crawford 16 HR/9: Houck o.57, Slaten & Jansen 0.68, Criswell 0.92 Not much has been said about how the loss of Slaten really h8urt the team.

The 9:1 K:BB ratio is terrifying, but these numbers are not: Stats where more PAs help, Rafaela places: T4 HRs (w 15), 3rd RBI (w 70), 4th Runs (68), 3rd SBs (19) Stats not based on more PAs (14 players 1ith 150+ PAs): 9th in BA (.245), 11th SLG (.394), 12th OPS (.669), 14th OBP (.275), 11th ISO at .147 I would say, despite the K:BB rate, his first full year was pretty good, and certainly not bad. His defense is tremendous, and although he was not great at SS, he was better than DHam, there.

Yes! I'd gladly include a 4/5/6 type pitchers with 4+ years of control (like Fitts, priester, Dobbins or even Crawford) in a package for a 1/2 type pitcher with 3+ years of control. I'm not sure what a package of Abreu, Crawford and Priester gets us- probably not a # 1 or #2, but maybe a really good #3. (Someone much better than Crawford.)

Trades for good young pitchers with promise are made, every year. Yes, they are costly, but they do happen. Here is one: BA leader Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez and 2 minor leaguers. Shortly afterwards, he signed a 4 year extension for $73.5M for an AAV of $18.4M. (The contract took the place of 1 arb year remaining.) At the 2022 deadline, SEA traded Edwin Arroyo, Andrew Moore, Noelvi Martre and Levi Stoudt for Luis Castillo. They extended him at $108M/5 ($21.6 AAV) plus a vesting option. Both signed reasonable extensions. The cost was high for both, but we have that value to trade.

Not surprising.

Chris martin is talking about retiring after 2025. Should we offer him $5-7M/1?

Detroit seems to want it.

I looked at all players from 1975-2024 with 3,000+ PAs and their K% vs BB%, here is what I found: The answer is no. Almost 7:1: Miguel Olivo 6:1 Javier Baez, T Anderson 5:1 Zunino, S Dunston 4:1 Story, Adam Duvall, Teoscar, D Espinoza, J McCann, Corey Snyder, Grichuk, R Odor, Y Gomes, N Castellenos, C Patterson, Sa Perez, D Young, Hillenbrand plus others Rafaela is 27.3% to 3.0% (9:1)

Nothing is even close to as bad. Even the Renfroe for JBJ, DHam & Binelas is looking slightly better, now, and falls way short of beig as bad as this one.

The thread that will never die. (Nor should it.)

AUG & SEP 21-25 MIN (RS 198- RA 205) 19-26 BOS (RS 192- RA 217) JULY>SEP 33-35 MIN (RS 309- RA 317) 32-37 BOS (RS 333- RA 362) I find it hard to say MIN is worse than us, right now.

Some Woo Numbers: .952 Anthony (.856 POR) .897 Campbell (1.045 POR & .976 GRE)) .835 Sogard .834 Meidroth .776 E Valdez .758 Grissom .736 Hickey (.716 POR) .716 Teel (.852 POR) POR .850 Mayer (0 PA at AAA) .800 Romero (.817 GRE) .706 Jh Garcia (.998 GRE & .882 SAL) GRE .894 B Gonzalez .812 Castro SAL 1.063 Jo Garcia .746 Bleis .710 Arias (1.055 FCL)

Maybe adding the Abreu to TEX and Josh Smith to SEA might get it closer. A lot depends on how much SEA values losing Castillo's salary vs taking on the lower Yoshi deal. They could "spend the saving" and add another piece that might tilt the balance to a "Yes."