moonslav59

1. I listed Coop's and Smith's recent 3-4 year sample sizes, which are much larger than Grissom's, and Smith's is worse than Grissom's last 3 year numbers. 2. We have no real alternative to Grissom at 2B, like we do with Kavadas at 1B/DH. I guess we could use Romy/DHam, but we might need Romy more at SS, if Rafaela keeps not hitting. 3. Grissom is coming back from an injury, and this could be viewed as ST'ing, for him. Give him a few more weeks, and I might be calling for a Valdez call up or aa Romy to FT role move. 4. You mentioned the decent career numbers by Coop & Smith, but both were heavily padded by good seasons pre-2021 or pre-2020, and not something they seem to be trending back towards. Smith has not been over .692 since 2020. He's at .652 in his last 787 PAs. Is that a large enough sample size? Cooper has been over .700, recently, so he does not have a horrible recent history, but at his age and looking at 4 straight years of 100% steady decline, I don't see why I should have more hope for him that Grissom, at his age. Cooper's OPS+ decline: 129 ('21)>112 ('22)>94 ('23)>83 ('24 in 83 PAs not 50.) Sure, Coop still has some hope he could regain the form of 2022. That was not too long ago, even for a 33 year old, but the longer 4 year trend is worrisome. 5. 1B is a position where offense is essential. 2B, not so much.

Many of us viewed 2024 as the season to "find out" more about a few players, to have a better idea of who will be in our longer term plans, and who will not. Of course, no 46 game sample size decides anything, and there will always be questions or doubts on any choice being made on 90% of MLB players, Nobody is 100% "durable." Nobody can be counted on to repeat what they did last year, the last 2-3 years or over their career as a whole: nobody. That being said, I do feel more comfortable with these ideas: The rotation was widely viewed as our clearcut weak area, not only in March, but for the last 4 years, as well. Houck and Crawford look like keepers in the rotation. This could be a huge development, as over the winter, we thought only Gio and Bello looked to be somewhat dependable and decent. That leads me to Bello & Gio: Bello's outlook seems a little less bright, but he started slow, last year, too. Gio looks more questionable due to the injury, but maybe not a lot more than he did before the injury. Pivetta will be a FA and might bolt, so I won't talk about his future with us, other than to say, I'd like to extend him to a reasonable deal- maybe $40M/3? I would not count on Criswell as a long term solution for the 5 slot. I hope we decide to use Whitlock in the pen for 2025 and beyond, especially since Jansen and Martin will be FAs, this fall. 2025: Gio, Houck, Crawford, Bello, _____. (I'd still love to see us add an ace, and make these 4 the 2-5 slot starters.). The pen was thought to be decent to good, in March. They have done about what was expected, but a positive development has happened, as the two FAs-to-be have been two of the RP'ers who have feel short of expectations. Many otehrs have improved their future outlook. Bernardino looks like no fluke. Slaten struggled. last night, but looks like a keeper. Weissert looks like a keeper. Kelly looks a little more promising, but his sample size is too small to say he is a keeper. Wink and Campbell have seen their stock slip over the first 46 games, and with Wink, he was so good, last year, that the drop seems large. I don't think Booser, Uwasawa and others have done anything to determi\ne they are keepers. Our catching tandem took a big step forward to start 2024. At worst, we should have a keeper to go with the big promise Teel brings to our catching future. Some other catchers in our farm system seem to be making strides, as well. Casas looks more fragole, but he is still a keeper. Grissom has done nothing to show he is our "keeper" at 2B, but I have not given up hope of his horrific small sample size. Romy looks like as good a utility infielder as anyone else, we've had. The return of Story is not to be counted on, and Rafaela's defense at SS seems good, despite too many errors. Mayer looks to be back on track with the promise he brings to SS. Devers at 3B is what it is, and he is a keeper. Our OF has made great strides. Duran is showing 2023 was not a fluke. Abreu has been hot and cold, but looks okay to good on D, and his bat looks good enough to stick. O'Neill is a FA, this winter. Rafaela looks about as questionable as he was in March. His O looks more questionable, but his D looks more believable. I was sold on Ref in March: maybe more are sold on him, now- not as a lock FT'er but a very useful 4th OF'er and DH v LHPs. Anthony offers about the same promise we had in March. I'm not worried about DH, even if we write off Yoshida and his deal, I like Ref vs LHPs and we have so many options to fill in the vs RH'd slot. A lot might depend on what Anthony, Mayer and or Teel can bring to the big club in 2025 and beyond, but we look okay, even if 2 out of 3 don't help in '25 or'26. I feel better about 2025 and beyond than I did in March, but that does not offer too much solace to watching this year's team on the field.

That could happen, too, or we could find out who our next DH will be- or could be (Kavadas,) because as the guy who is never wrong says, "Devers is not moving to 1B or DH." We don't need Kavadas to master the breaking ball or K less than 28%. We have a low bar set, already for him to beat: .525 Cooper (11Ks in 42 PAs) .262 OBP .464 Smith (13 Ks in 49 PAs) .224 OBP .377 Dalbec (28Ks in 59 PAs) .207 OBP) Total: 52 Ks in 150 PAs (not hard to beat) I realize high OBP in the minors is often not transferred to the bigs, but sometimes it is, and there does not seem to be any tell that allows us to know who can and who can't, until you try. (Dalbec has a nice OBP in the minors, as we all know.) Kavadas: .419 OBP in the minors in nothing to ignore. (It was .415 at ND) It's at .405 in AAA, so it hasn't declined much from his norm. He's also batting .307, this year (13 singles, 9 2Bs and 9 HRs) Give the guy a shot. I'm not going to say "What do we have to lose," because I don't have to say it. We are losing now, with Coop/Smith. DFA Smith and platoon Kavadas and Coop at 1B, at least.

What about them? I look more at recent 2-3, maybe 4 year sample sizes as being a better predictor than something that happened 3-4 years ago and beyond. Cooper: .807 up to 2021 (115 OPS+) .731 2022 to now (101 OPS!+) He turns 34 in December. His OPS has decline for 4 straight seasons, without interruption. He does have better recent numbers than Smith and bats RH'd. Smith has more hope, as he turns 29, soon, but his "recent numbers" are worse than Cooper's. .811 up to 2020 (117 OPS+) .658 from 2021 to now (83 OPS+) One could easily argue that continuing with these two, in hopes of an unlikely turn-around is "giving up on 2024." Kavadas has a very good eye. He's not just about hitting homers. I don't see him as having a worse outlook than the 2 we have, now. (Plus, calling up Kavadas only means parting with one of these two- likely the LH'd hitter Smith.)

Give it up, notin. This guy has his own meanings to words and just skips over words like "albeit unlikely" to tell you your opinion is "unlikely."

I don't see it that way, at all. Dalbec, Cooper and Smith have all sucked. They don't want Ref at 1B, so bringing up a guy raking it in AAA is not a desperation move or a "giving up" choice.

You might be right, but calling Kavadas up also makes sense. One factor might be that he is Rule 5, this winter, and we may want to "find out" more about him, before that day comes.

No. He should be 95%. Romy 5%.

Our bats have been so inconsistent and mostly quiet. My hopes of an O as good as last year's seems dashed. Although the whole league has seen a decline, ours is steeper. When it comes to timely hitting, we have been near the bottom, especially if you look at overall OPS - OPS in high leverage and late & close.

C: McGuire 75-80%/ Wong 20-25% 1B: Kavadas 80-85%/ Cooper 15-20% DH: Wong 65-70%/ Refsnyder 30-35% 2B: Grissom 90%/Romy 10% SS: Rafaela 70%/Romy 20%/DHam 10% LF: O'Neill 60%/Refsnyder 40% CF: Duran 90%/Rafaela 10% RF: Abreu 50-55%/O'Neill 35%/Refsnyder 10-15%

Agreed. Kavadas at 1B and DH. Play Ref, everyday at DH or LF, when Rafaela is at SS. Play Wong nearly everyday at C and DH. (Three way DH) Say good bye to Smith or Cooper. It looks like it's getting close to watching the minors more than the bigs. Sad but this is sadder,

Trainwreck is being kind.

Agree on Houck and Crawford. I'd kick the tires hard with Casas, too. I like the gamble on Rafaela. Bello seems like a decent bet.

Like every night for the next 5 months.

He has a lot of company.

Gotta stop this slide, or it will be too late, early, this year.

Woo rained out. POR won 2-1 Penrod 6IP, 1H, 1 ER, 3BB, 10K Anthony 1-2 w 2BB GRE lost 6-3 Mata pitched 2 innings (4H + 1BB + 0K) K Campbell 2-4

Back to square one. Full circle.

I'm all for riding the hot hands, in times like these. He's got speed, too. His D is worse than Rafaela and Romy at SS, though.

HRs by Devers in 2024 1 put the Sox ahead 2-0 (man on) v SEA in 6-4 win on opening day. Useless? No. 2 Sox ahead 1-0, he hit a solo homer in a 12-2 win v LAA. Useless? It did not seem so, at teh time. 3 Sox up 2-0 v CLE, he hits a solo HR in 8-0 win. Useless? Maybe? Probably? 4 Up 7-2 v, MIN Devers hits a nrea meaningless HR. Sox win 9-2. 4 in last 4 games... 5 Down 4-2 v TBR, he jacks a solo blast in the 6th to make it down 4-3, we lost. To me, not useless. 6 Down 1-0 to TBR, his solo homer tied it 1-1. We lost 7-5. Not really a useless homer, despite losing by 2. 7 Down 3-2, his solo homer tied it. We ended up losing 10-6. 8 Today's homer tied it. Sure, we wish he homered more often with men on base, but most of his homers were not useless or meaningless, when hit.

Another useless solo homer. It tied the game, but Devers really sucks when we need it.

Bring us some Thunder luck!!!

He is 1 run from being 3rd in runs scored on the team. Somebody has to be on base for others to get RBIs. No doubt, Devers is lagging on producing runs, so far this year. There is no denying it. I just don't buy into the idea that anyone should be defined by what they've done in a 34 game stretch, where he was playing hurt for part of it. (Again, not an excuse- he has sucked at producing runs.) RBI + Runs- HRs: 42 Duran (speed helps w runs scored) 37 Rafaela 32 O'Neill 31 Abreu (horrible in HL) 30 Devers 22 Wong 17 McGuire

A well thought out post. We also have to consider that Devers is doing this with very little support around him in the line-up. Teams are thinking, "Let anyone else beat us but Devers." I know that is not an excuse. He has sucked, when it counts, this year, and he's not being walked all that often in high leverage PAs. (2 BBs in 31 PAs) Also, only 31 PAs in HL is not a lot, nor a proper sample size to make definitive judgments about anyone. In 2023, he hit .941 in high leverage (21 BBs in 122 PAs) 6 HRs and 30 RBI. 30% of his RBI came in HL. Only 18.5% of his PAs were HL! How is this being a choke? (Not that anyone called him that.) The whole team is crappying out on O. Only 3 hitters are doing well in HL PAs. Devers is not one of them. (He is 4th best, but far behind them. Let's see how he does from PA # 32 to over 90 in HL situations, this year. I like having Devrs up in clutch situations, despite his poor 31 PAs, this year.

As of now, the ALE teams place like this: 1. NYY 2. BAL 7. TBR 10, BOS T11 TOR (BOS & TOR flirting with being in the bottom 5) Last year (nobody below #9): 1. BAL 2. TBR 5. TOR 8, NYY 9. BOS 2022 (Nobody below #9) 2. NYY 4. TOR 6. TBR 7. BAL 9. BOS 2021 (just 1 below #5) 1. TBR 4. BOS 4. NYY 5. TOR 15. BAL