moonslav59

I never said we'd extend him at under $20M AAV. I'm putting the odds over 50-50 that we extend him mid April- probably earlier. We don't trade that package for 4 years. We never have.

The age and injury recovery factors are real and concerning, but to me, he has been dealing with injuries, a lot, already, so I would not say he'll be any worse over this latest injury. I think he was playing hurt for a while, so maybe in 2025, he won't be. Expecting age 32 to be better than 30 and 31 is not really logical. I think I just saw some nice stretches and felt like he could do it for 5-6 months, and not just 3.

HOU has been out of the Bregman racfor weeks. Their final offer was something like $156M.

Kluber and Richards were "healthy," too. I'd like to see more evidence that a guy is over an injury than 10 IP. Look, I understand getting a guy who seems very durable can backfire... lik Gio did, but I'm just tired of these type of additions, usually made to save a buck anot have to commit long term. I see how this is different from hendriks, Fulmand Paxton, who were on the IL when signed, and we knew they miss months to start the deal, but it's a personal thing: I'm hoping we add a durable and dependable SP, and it workout better than Gio did.

Agreed. The Cubs are about to get Tucker.

That's not going to change. I think his ceiling is an .800 to .825 OPS, but he has not done that for even 3 months in a row, yet, so maybe I am just wishing.

We need a pitcher on the healthy side of the spectrum. Our staff is already to have Whitlock, Giolito, Hendriks, Fulmer, Crochett, and Slaten missed some time, too.

Give me some of that advanced metric stuff!

The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a trade that would send star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith

Hmmmm. I have to admit, I don't know enough about Gil to have a strong opinion on this idea.

Flaherty might not have a long record of success, but he just turned 29, so a 5 year deal goes just to year 33.

Wow! This is very telling.

Nate did have some spotty success before the 2018 October. He had some so-so and bad years, too, but he was generally between 3.40 and 4.50 from 2012 to 2018. 4.10 w MIA in 369 IP and 4.45 w NYY in 279 IP. His FIP has always looked better: 3.57 w MIA and 4.11 w NYY. Personally, I'm exhausted from all the "projects" and "show me" seasons by good pitchers coming off a recent injury. As a 6th starter, okay, but you don't pay $16M for a 6 guy.

Talk him all you want- just move his ass to 1B. 66 of his 141 errors were throwing. That would be reduced, if he was our 1Bman and eliminated if he DH'd. He's been a minus in DRS, every season, but he has had some pretty steep variances. -4 to -6 four times -9 to -13 four times Even if Devers is no better than Casas at 1B, we break even there and gain at 3B defense by almost anyone else playing there.

The "getting better" was contingent on staying healthy, and when he was healthy, he did look like a 2.0 guy. Remember, DH's are sharply devalued by fWAR, due to positional subtractions. He can hit better than a 1.5 WAR guy. His bWAR has been 1.8 per 162. His fWAR has been 0.9 per 162. I was also addressing his "ceiling" not his projection.

Yankees trade Cortes and Durbin for closer Devin Williams.

I think it is possible for him to be a 2.0+ WAR guy, but 1.5 seems fair enough. Factor in adjustment to the culture and injuries, and he might have been a 2.0.

Broken record- I know.... Corner Infield Defense 2023-2024 (250+ attempts): 3B: Devers: T40th out of 41 in OAA (-8)/ DRS 32nd out of 32 at -18 (next worst is -13!) 1B: Casas 34th out of 36 in OAA (-10)/ DRS 24th out of 33 at -15 One way to really help our current and future pitching staff is to greatly improve our defense. 2023-2024: 26th in OAA and DRS I think we'll be better at middle IF defense with no Valdez as our leading 2Bman in innings. DHam was a plus on D at 2B. Campbell should be a plus. Story needs to stay healthy. An OF of Duran, Rafaela (FT) and Abreu is excellent. Adding Anthony will not hurt. Our main issues are Catcher, 3B and 1B. We can fix all three by playing Narvaez more and moving Devers to 1B/DH and Casas to DH/1B and adding a decent 3Bman (Bregman or Arenado or go with Campbell of Grissom/Story/Mayer at 3B.) Just do it. So what, if Devers doesn't like it.

Does Brez & Co. think Narvaez is the ML solution to tandem with Wong for 2025, or are we still looking, and Narvaez is just AAA depth?

The "realistic" part was directed towards the money. Flaherty would be way cheaper than Burnes.

I'm only for doing a Yoshida dump, if it forces Casas/Devers to share the 1B/DH duties. That would be a huge plus to every pitcher on our team. It would be like adding a pitcher. It would also allow both Casas and Devers to "rest" as a DH and play more games and get more PAs, than if they played 150-155 games at corner IF. That is one big plus. Opening up a 40 man and 26 man roster slot for Campbell or Anthony would be another major boost, although the 40 man part can be done in other ways. The money saved part could help us improve at another slot. It's not just about prospects lost, although I get your point. Maybe trading Casas (and others) for pitching, moving Devers to 1B and just going with Yoshida-Ref at DH is better, although losing Casas and O'Neill's bats could be a major blow.

He is the worst or close to it. Framing, blocking, throwing... Statcast: Blocking 64th out of 66 at -13 Framing 56h out of 58 at -7 Throwing 22nd at +1 (33rd in "pop time.") Put them all together and he's the worst or very near it. DRS -14 (2nd worst in all MLB) They score him 71st out of 72 in their overall score.

Realistically, the most likely good pitcher we sign might be Flaherty. I think he's better than Bello, Gio and Crawford, and pushing one to the pen would help there, too, but the upgrade is not worth the cost. I'd rather we signScott or Hoffman, or Tesocar and trade for pitching upgrades. I'd say Bregman and trade for pitching, but apparently we won't move devers off 3B in 2025. Ho hum.

I agree, but we need one more "bold" move- maybe two, and I'm with Hugh and others: we need to take a big FA plunge. The money was there for Soto. We can afford anyone else still on the market- maybe even two. I'm not a big fan of anyone left, but certainly a few would be a big help. Burnes at maybe $240M/8: Not only would he gives us a powerful top 3 starters punch, but squeezing Crawford to the pen and spot starter role would be a big plus to another weak area on our team- the pen. Bregman at maybe $200M/7 only works for me, if we can get Devers to be okay with moving to 1B/DH. I do NOT pay him this money to play 2B. Teoscar might cost $75M/3 or $95M/4 and would give us the big RHB we need, but we already have a glut of OF'ers. If we could get a decent pitcher for Abreu, or a real good one for Abreu + Arias/Romero, he'd be a better add. Santander at about $90M/4 or $110M/5 is a nice switch hitter who would be fine in LF. Flaherty at about $125M/5 might be a second tier FA, but I like him more than Pivetta, and Manaea would cost us a comp pick. Pivetta would surrender the one we have coming, if he signs elsewhere. Pivetta or Manaea at $70M/3 to $90M/4 would be better than Crawford, but is that kind of money worth a small upgrade? (The comp pick issue, too.) Man-O-man, Kikuchi at $63M/3 looks like a steal, now. Tanner Scott looks like a long shot signing, since we already signed a closer-type lefty in Chapman, but I'd still love to get this guy for maybe $64M/4 Possibilities: Alonso at about $$130M/5 works only if we can dump Yoshida or trade Casas and others for a real good pitcher. He's a great RHB, but he'd keep Devers at 3B until he's a DH. Walker at less money than Alonso might be the better choice, here. Maybe he gets $70M/3 of $90M/4. He plays better D. Hoffman at maybe $48M/4 might be a good choice, but if he's all we get, I'll be bummed. Next tier: Estevez $30M/3, Quintana $22M/2, Buehler $16M/1, Yates $15M/1, Morton $10M/1, Kittredge $16M/1, Jansen $10M/1, Martin $8M/1

You don't make a trade like this, if you don't believe in the guy. We gotta go with the guy, risk and all.