moonslav59

Yes, over his career (fangraphs): 55% Fastball 39% Splitter 4% Cutter 3% Change-up Mo: 76% Cutter 10% Sinker Kimbrel: 68% Fastball 31% Curveball Jansen 73% Fastball 17% Cutter 9% Slider Papelbon 73% Fastball 16% Splitter 10% Slider We might be arguing semantics, here, but what and who is a one-pitch great closer? 80-90%? I don't see one. Is 76% a one pitch closer?

My guess is, they ride Smith and Cooper to the Casas return, whenever that is. I'm not sure June 21st is that time, but I hope so. It would be a nice start to the summer.

I don't think giving Dalbec one more chance is a bad idea. Playing one or both of Cooper or Smith, everyday is not working. A Dalbec/Kavadas platoon at 1B should not be any worse than Cooper/Smith, although many saw replacing Dalbec as essential a month ago. There is no surer solution at 1B within our system, right now.

Thanks for highlighting a big issue with this team and it's budget. It is also evidence to show why JH is shying away from large and long contracts (besides Devers.) I realize some are convince JH will never spend bigly, again. That very well MIGHT be the case, but nobody knows for sure. When this "wasted money" comes off the books, we could not top this year's budget and still make some gains by getting our signings right, for once. The $23M "saved" by losing the Sale, Turner & Joely commitments could be a nice FA signings. We will, however, be facing some hard roles to fill, at the same cost as these guys are now: $16M Jansen (might not be too hard to replace at $16M/per season) $7.5M Martin (very hard to replace at this cost.) $7.5M Pivetta (very hard) $5.9M O'Neill (might be hard) Cooper, Smith and Anderson should be easily replaced. Finding a taker for half or more of Yoshida's contract might be impossible, so we probably keep him and pray for a turn-around. We have 3 more years of his $18M and Story's $23.3M and one more year of Gio at $19M. The budget is not really a hot mess, going forward, and if JH does decide to spend more (not a projection,) we could see a solid team as early as 2025 or 2026. C Wong & Teel (McGuire for '25) 1B Casas (Kavadas/ Devers?) 2B Grissom (Story/Yorke/Valdez/DHam/Romy) SS Story & Mayer (Rafaela/Romy) 3B Devers (Mayer or Story?) LF Duran & Abreu/Refsnyder CF Rafaela & Anthony (Duran) RF Abreu & Anthony (Refsnyder) DH Yoshida & Refsnyder (Kavadas/Casas or Devers if Devers to 1B/DH) No FAs needed for everyday players, except maybe a big RH'd bat, as Mayer, Anthony and Teel all bat left-handed. Money will need to be spent on pitching, as always. The losses of Jansen, Martin and Pivetta (Gio after 2025,) alone will force some sort of additions. 2025 Staff ______, Houck, Crawford, Gio, Bello (Criswell, Whitlock/Fitts to pen) ______, _______, Hendriks, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, (Whitlock/Cooper/Fitts) or Wink/I Campbell/Fulmer/Kelly/Booser 2026 Staff Gio> Fitts or Criswell? Hendriks & Fulmer> Wink/Kelly/Guerrero/Murphy/Wikelman

We could extend him 1-2 years beyond arbs, but now it will be very costly, and perhaps too big of a gamble. Knowing our luck, he'd go on the IL w TJS a day after he signs. Crawford might be a better bet at extending, now. I'd still think about Pivetta on a 3 year extension.

Agreed, but let's not forget problem #2, which has been improved upon over the last few weeks: Unearned Runs Allowed (not to mention earned runs allowed that could have been prevented with just average defense.) 37 BOS 7th in runs allowed (Most Unearned allowed)/13th in Runs scored 26 PHI (Best record in NL) 6 in runs allowed/ 1st in Runs scored 21 BAL (3rd best record in AL) 5 in runs allowed/7th in Runs scored 17 ATL (Best record in NLE) 3 in runs allowed/ 13th in Runs scored 15 MIL (Best record in NLC) 10th in runs allowed/6th in Runs scored 15 SEA (Best record in ALW) 9th in runs allowed/27th in Runs scored 15 CLE (Best record in AL) 4 in runs allowed/4th in Runs scored 14 LAD (Best record in NLW) 8th in runs allowed/2nd in Runs scored 14 MIN (5th best record in AL) 14th in runs allowed 13 NYY (Best record in ALE) 1 in runs allowed/3rd in Runs scored 12 KCR (4th best record in AL) 2 in runs allowed/4 in Runs scored Red = outliers Clearly the difference in Unearned Runs allowed has made a difference with the Sox and those above them in the WC standings. -1.5 MIN (23 less UnERs allowed) -6.5 KCR (24 less) -7.5 BAL (16 less) -0.5 SEA (22 less for the ALW leader) Here is another way to look at it: Run differential vs record rankings and ER vs UnER differential vs record rankings: Run Diff 1. +93 PHI 1st in W-L record in MLB 2. +92 NYY 3rd best record in MLB 3. +79 KCR 5th 4. +73 CLE 2nd 5. +69 LAD 6th 6. +47 ATL 7th 7. +45 MIL 8th 8. +32 BOS 11th 9. +4 MIN 8th 18. -7 SEA 8th LEAST UnEarned runs: 12 KCR (5) 13 NYY (3) 14 LAD (6) & MIN (8) 15 CLE (2), MIL (8), SEA (8) 17 ATL (7) 21 BAL (4) 26 PHI (1) 37 BOS (11) While W-L seems to jive closer to best W-L records, 3 teams are outliers in the W-L standings compared to RUN Differential: BOS is better than MIN & SEA, but are on the outside of the playoffs. When you look at UnER vs ERs, no team is an outlier.

Hats off to a nice start to the season. Despite some clear drop offs by some, others have picked up the slack. Your big 3 batters have all played 48 or more games. Your everyday players have avoided the IL, so far, except for LeMahieu, who was not really someone you needed to do very well. You have 8 starts with 45+ games and your two catchers with 32 & 33 games played. Will that continue? Your staff has been really good, but here is something I can't see continuing: ZERO starts by anyone out side your current 5 in the rotation. While the Sox rotation has gotten a lot of the attention from the media, these numbers are astounding: 2.11 Luis Gil (10 GS/55IP) 2.52 Schmidt (11/61) 2.76 Stroman (11/62) 2.95 Rodon (11/61) 3.29 Cortes (11/66) If one does go down, maybe Cole will be ready, when they do. (Counting on pitchers returning is not fun, as any Sox fan can attest to.) Your pen has been good, too, despite seeing many on the IL. No doubt, if you guys keep playing like this, you'll finish with the best AL record. A lot can happen over 2/3 of a season.

The idea is to lock up these guys, BEFORE they start doing really well. It might be too late with Houck. He has to see mega bucks in his future, now.

Call up Kavadas, and DFA... Smith- not Cooper. Start a 1B platoon, and none of our 1Bmen should ever DH.

Upcoming Sox schedule: 3 @ BAL 3 v DET Off 2 v ATL 4 @ CHW Off 3 v PHI 3 v NYY 3 @ TOR Off 3 @ CIN 3 v TOR Off 3 v SDP Off 3 @ MIA 3 @ NYY Not an easy stretch, at all. Let's see how we handle it.

I'm fine with the signing. It was risky, but we know he's got one part of the game mastered.

We are 1 game from the 1/3 mark of the season, and currently nobody is between us and the last WC slot held by MIN at 28-24. We are 1.5 behind them. DET is 1 GB us. The Rays 1.5 and TEX 2.5.

Woo lost 9-8. Kavadas 0-5 w 4Ks, but is still at 1.031. Alvarez homered twice (3-3) POR lost 8-3. Mayer homered & walked. Teel went 2-4. Lugo 2-4 w 2B & 3B SAL won 6-4 Zanetello 2 BBs (0-3) JH Garcia 1-3 w BB Bleis 1-3

So, the Devers extension, that kicked in this year and broke all records of Sox signings by nearly 50%, is the last big splurge by JH?

With our pitching, we should be 5-8 over .500. If seeing there is more than one way to look at an issue is flip-flopping, then that's me. (I don't see it that way.)

Rafaela is now nearing the modern day Mendoza line. .599 OPS (Maybe a few years ago, .699 was it.)

Houck is at 93 pitches after 6 IP. Do we bring him out for the 7th? Tough call.

It does seem like an extension might have been agreed upon, before the trade was made: good point. I also think the Sox were thinking they would likely not be accepting the 2025 option, so they viewed the trade as giving up 1 year- not 2 of Sale. Of course, the $20M option for 2025 looks a lot nicer, now than it did in March. The re-working of Sale's contract on the extension is interesting. He was due to get $27.5M in 2024 with a $20M club option for 2025. That would have been $27.5M/1 or $47.5M/2 had the extension not occured. With the Sox paying $17M, the cost to ATL would have been $10.5M/1 or $30.5M/2. The extension lowered the 2024 amount to $16M (-$11.5M) but added $22M guaranteed for 2025, or $16M/1 or $38M/3. They basically gave him $10M more for 2025 with the 2024 offset. That is not some huge vote of confidence. The 2026 option is an $18M club option. Since the Sox are paying $17M, which I assume is added to the ATL deal, Sale will actually make $33M in '24 and $22M in '25 or $55M/2 vs the possible $47.5M/2 previous deal with the option taken, right? I'm not sure if the Sox $17M paid ATL is going to Sale (added to the $16M redo/extension) or ATL in 2024.

Me neither. With Gio & Whit out, all year, we need the 5 we have now to stay healthy all year. That is not very likely, and Keller isd probably a better option than burning out the pen with pen games or letting Chase Anderson go 3-4 innings, assuming he pitches well enough to last even that long. Our current 5 look pretty good, but regressing to the norm could happen. As SP'ers only: 1.94 Houck (10GS) .515 OPS Against 2.78 Criswell (7) .665 2.89 Crawford (11) .637 4.04 Bello (8) .714 4.20 Pivetta (6) .734 Note: Wink has 3 GS with 10.2 IP and a 1.69ERA/.620 OPSA

Bulky players always seem more prone to injury- like hammy pulls, knee and back issues. It does seem like easing off the body-building would improve on his chances at staying healthy. He might lose some power, but the trade-off seems worthwhile.

We have a history of picking up SP'ers. Recently, most have been 1 year signings or flyers on scrubs or recently injured pitchers, like Kluber, Paxton, Richards, Wacha and Hill. In a short time, Brez has added (none on a 1 year deal): Gio (IL) Criswell Anderson (used more in relief) Fitts (AAA) Sandlin (A+) Brad Keller (Kelly optioned to AAA)

Point well taken. To me it seemed like you were treating Grissom like you did McGuire, last year- very harshly over a very small sample size. Yes, others took to more harsh statements about Grissom than you have made. You did start the thread with a tidbit of hope that maybe the thread would turn him around, so it wasn't all harsh.

He was pretty good over his last 15 starts (3.16 ERA/3.41 FIP) He was even at 3.38/3.31 over his last 17 starts (a better FIP than 15 starts.) Some other selected sample sizes: Last 11 GS: 3.61/3.62 Last 9 GS: 3.92/3.96 is actually the worst sample size to choose out of the 4 I chose.

That is a strong point about Sale being healthy at the end of 2023. He was also pitching well, after his first 5 starts. Those 15 starts to end the season was his longest stretch of good pitching in about 5 years. The only season he even started 15 or more games since 2018 was 2019 (25 GS and a 4.40 ERA.) The last 15 starts of 2023 saw these numbers, and if this was what we thought he might give us for 28-33 starts in 2024, then the trade would be viewed more harshly at the time of the trade: 80 IP (5.1 IP/GS, 3.16 ERA and 3.41 FIP) That was not vintage Sale, but it was close enough to think he was back and a plus. I get that. To me, the promise of Grissom solving our 2B major problem for maybe 5 years, tilted the scales. It's not looking that way, right now, but it is way too early to think there is no or even little hope he will be an overall plus over the next few years. That ending to 2023 by Sale was a good sign that he might be back healthy and doing well for 2024, despite his 4.30 overall ERA for 2023. Many posters prefer to use full season numbers to measure future projections, so those that do, should not really have viewed 2023's numbers as all that promising- healthy or not, (To be fair, the 3.80 FIP for 2023 was a bit more promising, but nothing like the 2.21 of 2024.) No doubt, the trade looks horrible, now. If we had Sale and went with Romy/DHam at 2B, we'd probably be in a WC slot, right now. (I know many don't even look at WC standings until June, but we would likely be 3-4 wins better, right now.) There is still 2/3 of the season to go, and a lot can change in that time.

I disliked the JBJ trade before JBJ even played a game after the trade. I am fine with people disliking trades, including the Sale-Grissom trade. Have I ever said otherwise? Hell, I disliked the trade, at first, but then the more I thought about it, my opinion shifted to slightly liking it. Part of the liking it was based on the assumption, we'd use the $10M saved to add another piece, but I'm not sure we can say that, now. I'm fine with anyone hating this trade. I just think it is too soon to give it a final grade, which it seems some are doing. If I am wrong on that, I stand corrected. BTW, if DHam keeps looking like this, it might make the JBJ trade move from an F to a D or better, as the JBJ trade final grade is not quite complete. I can see how I seem contradictory on these types of issues, and I appreciate you pointing that out. I do give strong opinions on things and don't seem all that tolerant on others doing similar things as I do. I will try to keep that in check, if I can catch myself. I guess where I see a difference is that I did not base my opinion on the JBJ trade on his April and May sample size (and Renfroe's.) I think the fact that Sale has got off to a surprisingly great start, and Grissom has gotten off to a shockingly horrific start has created a situation where relatively small sample sizes are driving the discussion to brash statements that sound to definitive, to me. While it is certainly possible we don't get 4-5 years from Grissom, if he flames out, his sample size could end up being 4-5 years of sound play at a position we have been extremely bad at for 3 or more years. I'm holding off judgment on the trade. I will say, my opinion went from dislike to like, but now it is looking more questionable than I felt in March. Another factor is that if we end up sucking, this year and next, having Sale likely would not have helped us get to the playoffs, and if Grissom does just okay for years 2-5 or 3-5, it might still help us more than Sale would have. Only time will tell.