moonslav59

I've been a big supporter of JH for years, and I still think he was the best thing that happened to the Sox in my 50+ years being a fan. I've been saying he spends in cycles, and kept thinking "this will be the uptick year" for a few years, now, and it hasn't happened. I expected he was waiting for the right moment to go large and long, again. I thought after 2021 was a good time, but nope. I thought the foundation was pretty good after 2022 and 2023, too, but nope. Now, I think he's looking at the farm hands that are near ML ready and a solid, balanced everyday group of players plus a bit of a surprise pitching staff defying all odds, and he must be thinking the time is "NOW," or at least will be, this winter, but the cynical side of me beats down the hope and makes me reach the conclusion that "I'll believe it when I see it." The whole "full throttle" thing, although not said by JH, took all bets off the table. The FO has been a sham for 2-3 years- trying to convince the fans that they were trying to keep us competitive through the rebuilding of the foundation. IMO, they were just trying to keep us out of last place, and they failed at even that. I'm still extremely optimistic about the future of this team. The 26 man roster looks very nicely set up for the next 3-6 years. We have a ton of pre-arb and early arb players on the 26. We have some high potential prospects not yet on the 40. We have upcoming budget space to make some big impact additions to areas of need, which will include replacing Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and a RHB (O'Neill and Ref after 2025,) but the big question is, will JH okay increasing the payroll budget? At this point, even spending up to the first line is in question, which to me is sickening, when you see how filthy rich JH is. We should be spending to the second line, at least, for a year- whether it be 2025 or 2026. (My guess is 2026 would be the best timing, in terms of guessing when we should see peak roster projected production, but I'm just taking a stab in the dark.) I hope we do something significant at the deadline. It doesn't have to be earth-shattering, or even involve a top 6 prospect, but we can add 2-3 solid players with blocked prospects ranked #7 or lower. If an opportunity arises where we can add a SP'er with 2.3+ years of control, to help us now and in the next 2+ seasons, I'd love to see it happen, even if it involves losing a top 3 or 2 prospects from #4-9 to get. I doubt it happens, but we have the farm to make offers that can equal or better almost anyone else, unless the team wants a top young pitching prospects, which, sadly, we can not produce. I mentioned 2026 as perhaps "the year," but I hate to think we go through another winter like this last one, thinking "wait till next year" for the 5 straight winters.

So, what would his OPS be without facing Sox pitchers, anymore?

Right. We basically have 4 SP'ers and Criswell. I hate to keep repeating this, but we will need to manage innings on Houck and Crawford, which means less IP/GS or going to a 6 man rotation, which I like. To be a top contender, I think we need: 1. A solid #2/3 type SP 2. An innings eater #4/5 type and make Criswell the long man/7th starter on a 6 man rotation. 3. A RHB (SS, 2B, 1B or by swapping Abreu + prospects for a better RF'er who bats RH'd) Do I think we add 2 SP'ers? No. If we add just one, it better be a damn good one who also gives innings, then add a pen arm, as we will need it.

The Sox open the 2025 season in Texas (4 games), starting March 27th and then head to BAL for 3 games (day off after game 1.) They come home to play STL for 3, then TOR. The Sox end the season with these 18 games: 3 @ OAK (after 3 @AZ) 3 v NYY Day Off 3 v OAK 3 @ TBR Day Off 3 @ TOR 3 v DET

The signings have begun... Chase Burns agreed to terms and will receive a record signing bonus of $9.25 million, sources told MLB.com. It surpassed the $9.2 million last year's first overall pick, pitcher Paul Skenes, received from the Pirates. (I think his slot money was about $9.8M.)

2024 IP and Career Highs 117 Houck (106 in '23 and 119 in A+ 2018) 113 Crawford (129 in '23 and 144 in A-/A+ in 2018) 90 B Bello (157 in '23 and 118 in A 2019) 58 Criswell (33 as RP in '23 and 117 in A+/AA in 2019 & 2021) 73 Wink in AAA+MLB (112 in AA/AAA 2021 and 127 in 2019 A) (Pivetta is on pace for a lower IP total than 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 & 2023) We have 67 games left, which is about 13 starts per SP, and at 5 IP/GS, that adds 65 IP to their totals. That might project to... 185 Houck (55 more than his career high in professional baseball) 180 Crawford (50 more) 155 Bello (equals his high) 125 Criswell (Barely passes his high) Then, if we make the playoffs, maybe 5-20+ more IP per SP'er. It would be nice to add another solid innings eater and go to a 6 man rotation to finish 2024.

You make great points, but it is very hard to win without near top pitching. Our staff is doing very well, this year, and it's no coincidence we are in the race, as a result, but we have too many SP'ers nearing or already over their career high in IP, and we have 66 games to go before even thinking about them giving us quality playoff innings. We lose Pivetta, this winter, and although he has been a 4/5 SP'er with us since late 2020, he's been our best innings eater, by far. We also lose our best closer since Uehara. One can say we got lucky with the homegrown pitchers we have, now, and I don't see the next Houck or Crawford joining the staff in 2025, so where do we get a couple pitchers to keep us in the top 10 in MLB, minimum? I agree, pitchers are major risks, but we will be having duplicate values at several everyday positions from 2025 to beyond 2026. We can't play everybody, even if 2 are hurt all year. Wong & McGuire ('25) then Teel ('26) Casas Story, Mayer, Campbell plus DHam/Yorke/Cespedes Devers Duran Rafaela, Anthony Abreu, Refsnyder (to 2025) then Bleis (2026 and beyond) Yoshida, Valdez/Lugo Even if we dump Yoshida, Valdez and lose Ref, I'm looking at 13-14 players for 9 slots and a couple key sub roles. We can trade 1-3 good players for pitching. If Campbell plays OF, we'll have 5 OF'ers for 2026, not counting Bleis (Duran, Anthony, Abreu, Rafaela, Campbell.) If Campbell plays 2B, we'll have 3 middle IF'er (Story, Mayer, Campbell) and 3+ offering decent depth, not counting Cespedes & Zanetello (DHam, Yorke, Romy, plus Meidroth.) If we lose Yoshida, we might have Valdez, Lugo, Jo Garcia, Jordan, Yorke, Meidroth. Maybe Campbell ends up at DH.

Then, why isn't MVP's name on the list?

It's not like teams aren't paying attention to recent events, but I'm also not so sure a player's value changes much over a 60 PA sample size- good or bad.

I think we all would, but until we see JH spend again, I'm done hoping, wishing or expecting it to happen. Also, the best option might be to do both.

What would it take to get Skubal? He has 2 arb years left. BTV has his value at 100. If JH would open his wallet, we could lessen the return package by taking on Baez's mega bum deal ($73M/2 after 2024) or someone line Canha, who will be owed $4M at the deadline, but the Baez deal is not going to be taken. My guess is it would take ... Anthony or Keel + Mayer of Campbell + A prospect or two from below #6. or Anthony, Mayer, Keel or Campbell + 2 from Abreu (if Anthony not taken) Cespedes, Bleis, Fitts, Sandlin or Perales

I assume this is your no trade list. LOL

Agreed. I think he has 1 or 2 hot streaks in him.

I don't have full access to the BTV site, but here are some trade values of some Sox players: 54.2 Mayer 53.2 Anthony 31.4 Teel 25.4 Abreu 20.4 Criswell 18.1 K Campbell 13.3 Bleis 12.1 Bernardino 10.5 Winckowski 8.9 Cespedes 7.0 Rafaela 5.7 O'Neill & Perales 4.2 Romero 3.8 Yorke 3.7 I Campbell 3.2 E R-C 2.7 Wikelman 2.5 Meidroth 2.3 Castro 2.1 Fitts, Monegro & Dobbins 2.0 Mullins & Jordan 1.9 Jo & Jh Garcia 1.7 Penrod 1.6 Valdez & Bastardo 1.6 Paez 1.5 Lugo 1.3 Rogers 1.1 Guerrero 0.8 Mata -25 Yoshida A few targets? 100 Skubal 58.5 Crochet 39.5 Chisholm 36.4 Roberts 33.8 C Mize 21.6 Rooker 20.9 Fedde 8.5 Flaherty 6.1 Vlad 5.3 Kikuchi 4.8 Nate 3.3 Gomber -2.4 Canha

Yes, correct. My bad.

And SEA is not a lock. Their run differential is +19 to Texas' +9.

My guess is others on the list violate said rule.

Looking at the Sox pitching staffs since 2003, there are some eye-opening numbers, here... With 66 games still to play, the staff already has a higher fWAR (13.0) than 5 Sox teams (2012, 14, 15, 20 and 22.) 3.61 ERA is the best in 22 seasons (so far.) 3.73 2017 3.75 2018 3.79 2013 3.87 2007 (2004 was 4.19) 3.77 xFIP is #1 3.87 2014 3.89 2013 3.91 2017 3.92 2018 (2004 was 4.21) ERA- 82 2017 83 2007 84 2018 85 2024 89 2004 & 2008 90 2013 SIERA 3.79 the 2024 Sox are tops WHIP 1.19 the 2024 Sox (1.25 is 2nd '18 & '17) K/BB 3.4 2017 3.3 2024 3rd in K-BB% 3.0 2018 The 2024 Sox have the second lowest BAbip in 22 years, despite having awful defense behind them. UnEarned Runs: 98 2004 78 2003 73 2021 66 2010 & 2022 62 2014 60 2019 59 2024 Lead MLB & projects to about the second worst in 22 years. 58 2023 57 2011 55 2015 54 2016 53 2017 52 2005 & 2006 49 2012 43 2013 41 2009 39 2018 & 2008 (26 in 2020: prorated to about 65)

That is disputable! No cases are ever laid to rest on this site!

What "rule" prevents Mayer from joining "the list."

I don't know enough to have an opinion, but this does sound concerning. Thanks for the insights.

Texas did win 7 of 9 going into the AS break vs TBR, LAA and HOU. They have 11 games before the deadline, and they could get into the race, if they go 7-4 or better: 3 v BAL 4 v CWS 3 @ TOR 1 of 3 @STL (at deadline) They are 7.5 from the last WC slot, and 5 teams are between them, including the Sox and HOU.

Maybe Heaney, who we apparently kicked the tires on, before (twice?) (Bloom kicked the Eflin tires, but I'm not sure Brez thinks as highly of him.)

I think it is of approx value to get him, but yes, it depends on what the other GM wants.

For Crochet, maybe they take Anthony + [Fitts/Sandlin] + [Yorke/Lugo/Meidroth] +[Castro/Paulino/E R-C]