moonslav59

I know fully well what happened- same with Crawford, Oviedo and many others. The fact is many other pitchers do follow up a career high IP season with another one or one or more near the same amount? What's your info an year two after career highs in IP? That was what I asked, but got the expected deflections instead. Yes, I do think major upticks in workload increases the chances of an injury. Now, tell me what you expect in year two? Feel free to consult the pulse of the Sox Nation you are more in tune with than anyone else on this site.

One team that may have a very interesting off season is HOU. They look to be in serious decline, finisihed at .500 and have several underwater contracts and stars & aging stars with 1-2 years of control. Do the unload and go total rebuild? Do they try for one more year of glory? Do the try to rebuild some, while not giving up on 2027 and or 2028? I know they don't want 2 years of Duran for 1 year of Pena, but if we gave them Godbout and took back the sunken cost or Javier Vazquez, do they listen or hang up? Pena 27.6 and Vazquez -14.9 for Godbout 9.3 and 4.4 Duran (We could add Monasterio or maybe Cheng/Romero) BTV accepts this too: do you? Durbin, Duran, Sogard & Cespedes for Yordan (2 yrs) and Paredes (1 yr)

Yes, Suarez has been babied his whole career. If they continue that, I don't have injury worries with him. I expected them to ease up on Tolle's workload in 2026, and they did not. I do have worries about him, but not all pitchers who reach career highs get hurt the next year or two. I am concerned. Why is it good for BBB that Belle gaines some of my trust back? I just gave my own opinion and was not trying to convince BBB of anything. The only trust that really mattered was Tracy and Brez's. What does your magic 8 ball have to say about year two after a career high IP season and issues the first year after? That's the info we really need, now.

Any of the 2 or 3 for one trades would need JH allowing Brez to add a major FA piece to reverse the loss at the second position. For example: Trade Arias, Abreu & Oviedo for DLC and sign Suzuki. Trade Arias, Durbin & Oviedo for DLC and sign Sato. Trade Arias, Mead & Oviedo for DLC and sign Sato or BLowe/Chisholm? Not sure how realistic this is.

None that will ever be agreed upon by even a majority of posters. My realistic view is we need an elite bat and SS makes the lost sense. (DH/LF is next and maybe 2B/3B is 3rd.) What might be "realistically" probable? We sign Arozarena and make a trade.

I'm glad we got Mead for Early and were able to keep Arias- perhaps for another trade to come.

Anthony would not be a good RF'er in Fenway. I don't want Duran handed LF again, either. We could maybe add someone else besides Abreu, but I'd still do the trade. (Then sign Suzuki.)

In past 3 years combined, Alonso is second to worst at 1B DRS and last in OAA at 1B. Contreras started playing 1B recently and quickly became better than Alonso. 2025-2026 DRS: Contreras +7, Alonso -9 OAA: Contreras -17.2, Alonso -25.7 bWAR: Contreras -1.5, Alonso -2.7 fangraphs: Contreras -10.3, Alonso -25.7

No, it's not enough. It wasn't easy improving as much as it did within a limited budget. We need a major step forward.

I disagree on #5, but that's not how I look at it. He was way better than 3.07 then way worse. The fact that it averaged out at 3.07 is a testament to how great he was for the first and longer part of this breakdown. First 6 series (2 rings) 72.2 IP 1.73 ERA and 6-2 Last 3 series (0 WS shows) 21.0 IP 7.71 ERA and 1-1 He was- then he wasnt

We need to hope... Mickey Gasper = Jake Bauers

Bello actually gained my trust again. He's still a major concern, but he came around nicely. I feel really good about Tolle & Bennett being able to go more IP. Suarez seems safe as long as he keeps being babied. Crochet scares me.

Me too, but capable of starting those games you projected might be needed.

It's not that I dont want him. If no Suzuki, maybe....

This is the risk they get hurt or greatly underperform? If so, it amounts to losing about 1.25 starters. (Maybe 40-42 GS) I might project more like 50-55 GS. In house solutions? IMO, Houck should start the year in the pen and stay there, but I'm not sure how Brez & Co. view him. He ended the season healthy and pitching. If you put him at 50% and as a SP, he could start 15 games. Crawford should remain a starter, IMO. He was ready to start the last game in AAA, but it was cancelled. Maybe count him as 60%. That's 12 GS. Oviedo is hard to project, but he was healthy, too and is a SP'er. How about 50% and 15 GS. If all three are starters, maye they give 42+ GS with a possibility of 90 GS if 100% healthy all year long. I doubt Brez adds a stud pitcher. I don't think he planned on Suarez, this year, and Crochet can be viewed as Gray's replacement. The scary part is Paez is the only AAA guy on the 40. Wehunt is Rule 5 and may be added. Holobetz and Ziehl could be added, when and if needed, but none of these guys wow me at all. I could see Brez adding another Oviedo type, but maybe he gets lucky and adds another Bennett type.

I think my point is that it's easy to "get a feeling" after watching a guy do well in a very small but very important sample size. We cannot expect this to continue, of for him to do very well (or poorly) in future playoff series. I think it's a mistake to make decisions based on this. Now, if we liked him a lot before this, then maybe we can like him a tiny bit more. (Just how I see it.)

He's a FA, so my guess is lots of money. He just turned 31. He never his more than 12 HRs in a season until 26, this year. He never had a SLG higher than .413 and that was a 1/3 season. He was at .484 this year. He never had over 432 PAs until 2026.

The gut feeling was maybe Pablo Sandoval could be the next Papi or Papi light. Watching some guy homer in this years playoffs should not heighten our drive to trade for him. Watching a player go 1 for 12 in the playoffs should not talk us out of trading for him,

I think a 27 man roster is reasonable and 28 would be fine. The 40 man roster is what offers wider benefits to teams and players making way more money. 45 would be great. If the MLB roster is 27, a 45 man roster would give teams 18 in the minors. 9 positions and 9 pitchers, if chosen that way. Just seems right.

I've said this exact thing. Beckett was headed to near GOAT status as the best Playoff pitcher in MLB history, or at least top 3, until he wasn't.

1. Schwarber 2T Alonso & Contreras It was closer than I expected and the money saved helped us pay part of Gray or Suarez's contract. Nobody has the answer on who might have helped us vs the Yanks in a two game sample. Nobody can predict how anyone will do in October. You try to build a team that promises to do well, and then let them play the game. Brez left us short and then made a couple bold attempts at making up for it. The Mead injury hurt a lot- maybe even more than Anthony's failed attempt at a return That's not to say Brez didn't make any mistakes. I have been in total agreement with those who felt we left a major hole on offense by the start of the season. I remember even saying at the time, trying to fix it at the deadline will likely be more costly and is usually for just rentals. Brez did well not to go for rentals, but the overpay became even more extreme. I think our projected line up in 2027 looks better than opening day 2026, opening day 2024 and pretty close to the opening day 2025 line-up with Bregman and Devers. Remember, you asked me to look at the 2025 numbers to make the call on Schwarber, Alonso & Contreras, so I ask you to look at Bregman's past 2-3 year totals before 2025 to judge that line-up. What's your take? Is our 2027 projected line-up better? 1. Anthony LF/DH 2. Mead 2B 3. Abreu RF 4. Contreras 1B 5. AR C 6. Story SS 7. Yoshida/Duran LF/ Gasper DH/ Romy-Jones DH 8. Durbin 3B 9. Rafaela RF I'm fine with saying this isn't good enough, but IMO, it is better, more balanced and the bench much better than the team handed to Brez. The pitching & defense is light years better.

I think Durbin has room to improve on offense, and his size does not bother me. Lack of power either, as long as we gain power elsewhere. Some reasons for optimism: 1. A 101 OPS+ in your first 1100 MLB PAs is pretty good, despite being 25 and 26 years old. 2. While 24 HRs is not great, 75 XBHs is not a weak batter. 3. A .794 OPS over the last 102 games of 2026 is no tiny sample size. (409 PAs) To be fair, he was at .621 in his last 120 PAs. BTW, that 102 game sample size pro-rates to .278 25 93 over 650 PAs. 4. He is just now entering peak prime years of age 27-30. Being a GG or near GG defender at 3B has real value. 20 SBs is not bad, either. I don't recall too many base-running blunders. I'd rather upgrade SS or DH/LF.

Agreed, even for a few days. Even the major disagreements have been civil and IMO, we aren't as far apart as it might appear we are. I think we all want to add an elite bat. We saw how our 4 rings were won. We had 2+ good to great SP'ers, a top closer and 1-2 elite bats with very few holes in the 1-9 slots, if any. We currently have 3 good to great SP'ers, the best 1-2 pen punch in MLB, 3 GG or near GG defenders and nobody really crappy, unless we go with Story at SS, but we have only one elite bat, and he's 36 next year. We don't have blackholes with everyone healthy, but IMO, we need an elite bat without downgrading another slot by much. Two significant improvements could do the same but seems more complicated and costly.

Sorry, but no 12 PA sample sizes convinces me of anything. It doesn't even concern me a smidgeon. Having a good playoff series or two is not a skillset or a repeatable skill.

It may not be. I'm thinking Brez might believe the Mead and AR additions plus a full year from Anthony is enough. It's not without logic. It's not unreasonable to expect 1500-1800 total PAs from those three combined and OPS between .750-.775 for ARand .825-.850 for Mead and Anthony. In theory, that should be "just enough." Another expectation could be that many of the pre-prime and prime players who declined last year bounce back and by more than anyone else decline. While the focus has been on offense, and rightfully so, we can't neglect pitching and defense: The loss of Gray might be partially offset by addition by subtraction of Sandoval and others, but more likely by returns by Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo and maybe better pen health. We have three GG finalists and look better at Catcher than 2026. 2B and SS are dependent on who plays there. 1B and LF should be about teh same.