moonslav59

Part II 21. Wikelman Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a quality mid-rotation starter. Still has a wide variance of outcomes; will show four pitches, including a fastball and curveball that stand out, but delivery and command are more like that of a reliever. Potential for three above-average-to-better pitches, but still a long way to go in development and must significantly improve command and control to reach his ceiling. Needs to throw more strikes and be more efficient with his pitches to last deeper into games. Does not have the typical size you look for in a starter. Has simplified his delivery over the course of his career, which should make it easier for him to keep his arm in sync with the rest of his body, but still has considerable effort in his delivery. If command does not improve, that, along with his size and delivery, could push him to a short relief bullpen role, but with his stuff, he could thrive in such a role or even in a multi-inning role. 22. Penrod Potential up-and-down, multi-inning depth arm. Ceiling of a depth/sixth starter type. Better than your typical indy ball signing, especially given how little time he has in affiliated ball. Will show feel for all of his pitches and solid velocity from the left side. Changeup is a legit out pitch, but needs to refine his fastball command and control. Stuff will be tested against more advanced hitters, but has shown already that he is too good for the low-minors. Still pretty early in the developmental process even though he is already 26, so there is a chance further work with player development could unlock even more. 23. Cason (SS, too) Most scouts prefer him on the mound...On the mound has a three-pitch mix with impressive velocity... 24. Early Potential organizational starter. Ceiling of an emergency depth starter. Durable and has solid pitchability, but present stuff other than his changeup is fringy. If his stuff takes a step forward, he could develop into a very interesting arm. As is, still has a relatively high floor with his feel and ability to locate all of his pitches and change speeds. 25. Monegro Potential up-and-down, multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. High variance arm who is still learning to pitch. Still very projectable and has already added velocity, even within the season. Could gain even more velocity given how loose his arm is and the remaining projection in his frame. Stuff took a significant step forward in 2023, making him a much more interesting prospect. Needs to show more consistency and improve command and control as he moves up the ladder. Fastball quality could stand to improve, as could creating separation between his two breaking balls. Has dabbled with a changeup in the past and adding something like that or a splitter could give him a better chance to stick in the starting rotation. Pitches with emotion and swagger. 27. Valera Athletic frame with some remaining projection. On the raw side, but shows two intriguing pitches already. Fastball works 93-97 mph. Pitch is hittable, and command and control are a work in progress. Also throws a slider at 83-85 mph that he has already shown the ability to manipulate the pitch's shape. Does not have a third pitch at present. Very intriguing arm for an 18-year-old. Likely looks destined for a bullpen role due to his lack of a third pitch and concerns about strike-throwing, but checks a lot of boxes that you look for in a pitching prospect his age. 28. J Paez Potential emergency up-and-down starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. One of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Red Sox low minors, but has a wide gap between what he currently is and what he could be. Already shows an intriguing three-pitch mix with advanced feel and command for his age. Stuff at present is on the light side, but has already started to tick up. If stuff continues to tick up, projection could change. 29. Mullins Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a middle reliever. Will show bat-missing ability with three pitches and the ability to get righties and lefties out at his best. Will initially be developed as a starter, but delivery, command profile, and injury history point to him likely ending up in the bullpen. 30. Neely Likely will be developed as a starter, but has a higher floor as a potential bullpen arm. Intriguing fastball-slider combo could profile well in a bullpen role. Development of changeup, curveball and command will be keys to his chances to start. Checks a lot of boxes the Red Sox look for, with a unique delivery with a low release height and a fastball with solid traits and bat-missing ability. Has also shown a curveball and cutter on occasion. 32. Guerrero Potential middle-inning reliever. Ceiling of a late-inning leverage reliever. Has some of the best raw stuff of any relief arm in the system, but needs to improve command and control and consistency. Walks too many hitters and has not missed as many bats in the high minors as he did in the low minors. Splitter is a potential separator pitch with the ability to miss bats at the highest level, but needs to regain his 2022 form with the pitch. Fastball has good velocity, but is hittable and he will have to show the ability to command it to succeed. Has plus makeup and is regarded as one of the hardest workers in the system. Very popular with teammates. 33. Wehunt Potential organizational arm. Ceiling of a multi-inning depth reliever. Lacks a plus pitch, but has three pitches he is comfortable throwing for strikes and size you do not often see. Really imposing presence on the mound with an off-putting delivery for hitters and solid present stuff. 34. Da. Reyes High-upside arm with substantial projection that checks all the boxes you look for in a teenage starting pitching prospect. Already throws strikes and has feel for two secondaries. Very intriguing arm that could see his stock soar after he makes the jump stateside if he continues on his current development path. 35. Bastardo Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Right now, lacks the fastball quality and command to stick as a starting pitcher. Secondary pitches are ahead of fastball, with changeup and breaking ball both showing bat-missing potential. Needs to further refine his two breaking balls, which can run into each other at times. 36. N Dean Potential organizational arm. Wide-range of outcomes as he is transitioning to a starting role in pro ball. Intriguing raw stuff with untapped potential. Needs to work on secondaries and command and control, but lefties with good velocity that miss bats are not easy to find, so presents an intriguing package for a pitching prospect. Can always fall back to the bullpen if necessary. 39. Gambrell Potential up-and-down swingman. Wider range of outcomes for a college player due to his pitch changes after the pandemic. Got into better shape and velocity has increased in 2021. Reasonably high floor as a reliever due to fastball/breaking ball combination if injury issues crop back up or command does not take a step forward.

Here is what soxprospects.com says about some of our prospect pitchers with promise. (Note: I do not think they over-hype pitching. They seem very fair and objective, to me. I often think they undersell them.) 7. Perales Potential back-end starter or multi-inning bridge arm. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Wide variance arm with a high ceiling and low, but rising, floor. Size, delivery, and inconsistent command and control profile might push him into the bullpen, but has shown among the best raw stuff of any arm in the system 10. Sandlin High-variance prospect with starter upside. Will show three pitches that are at least average with an above-average command-and-control profile. Stuff appears to have ticked up during winter workouts heading into the 2024 season, but it remains to be seen if he can hold those gains into regular season action. If the improvements with his fastball that he showed in the offseason hold, projection could change. Exciting arm with considerable upside if things click. 14. Tolle Wide range of outcomes from a left-handed reliever to a back-end starter. Very unique pitching prospect given his size and delivery. Could have some untapped potential as he has only focused exclusively on pitching very recently. His extension would grade near the top of all pitchers in pro ball, and even though his velocity is only average, he misses a ton of bats with his fastball. Needs to improve command and control and develop a third pitch to stick as a starter, but has a relatively high floor as a fastball dominant left-handed reliever. Type of arm that you want to bring into the player development system with some standout traits to build on. May also throw a cutter and/or curveball that do not appear in his pitch data. 15. Fitts Potential multi-inning depth arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Has some traits you look for in a starting pitching prospect, but effort in delivery and lack of a third pitch hint at the bullpen being Fitts’ most likely destination. Stuff improved as the 2023 season went on and has apparently improved further in 2024. Could be a candidate to take a step forward working with the Red Sox' new development staff, as he was tweaking his secondary pitches throughout 2023. Needs to find a consistent third pitch and continue to refine his slider to have a chance to stick in the rotation. Has a starter's fastball with the command and control to work deep into games. Needs to find a consistent pitch to get lefties out and limit damage in the air. 16. E R-C Potential emergency depth starter. Ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher. . Has a four-pitch mix, with three showing average potential, but stuff is on the pedestrian side overall and there are questions about how many bats it will miss against more advanced hitters. Solid pitchability. Arsenal does not look like it would translate to a bullpen role, so most likely will have to show he can stick in the rotation. 20. Dobbins Potential up-and-down depth starter or multi-inning reliever. Ceiling of a back-end starter. At his best, will show plus-to-better velocity and several secondary pitches that can all get hitters out. Wide-ranging arsenal with pitches that move in all directions and confidence that he can throw any of them for strikes. Still working to find a go-to, major league-quality out pitch. Effortful delivery brings injury and consistency concerns, and needs to improve his fastball command. Fastball can get hittable later in games and velocity tends to tick down. Needs to show he can consistently get left-handed hitters out to profile as a starter, but has developed into one of the more intriguing arms in the system.

Too early on Ingrassia, and maybe E R-C can take a big step, next year, but I agree. I'm starting to like Dobbins more and more. Maybe Paez can keep this going.

The DSL Sox team swept their first playoff series by a combined score of 27-8 (3 gms.) In the final game, Justin Gonzalez went 5-6. Our farm teams have been doing pretty well, this year. Woo finished 8th in the first half of the season at 35-40, but are T2nd at 27-22 in the second half of the season. Overall, they are at .500. POR is tied for the fewest losses in the Eastern League (69-49) and just promoted a mess of talent to Woo. GRE came on at the end and are in 2nd place in the second half standings at 32-21. Overall, they are 58-61. SAL improved, a lot, in the second half by going 30-23 for 2nd place. Overall, 64-55 gives them the 5th best record in the 12 team Carolina League. The FCL team ended up 35-24 (3rd in the division and 6th best out of 15 teams.)

It's getting down to the point where we need not just a winning stretch, but a winning streak. We've cornered ourselves into this with poor pitching, horrific pen work and bad defense. Now, even the bats are going quiet. This game seems like it might be a very important one. We need to start winning more at home. We can't lose any more ground to those ahead of us. We will begin to play a schedule that is a bit more favorable than our closest teams have to play. To me, it seems like it is "now or never." The team needs to take one game at a time, but I'm looking at the next 15 games as our chance to get back in this thing: 1 v AZ 5 v TOR (in 4 days) 3 @ DET 3 @ NYM 3 v CWS Is even 10-5 enough? Let's start with 1-0!

Top xFIP in all minor leagues (50+ IP) 1080 qualifiers 2. Ingrassia 1.88 A- 12. Paez 2.51 A-, A+ 61. Carlson 3.04 A-, A+ 107. Early .3.29 A+, AA 119. Penrod 3.32 AA, AAA 120. Wehunt 3.32 A-, A+ 126. O'Donnell 3.34 A- 128. Monegro 3.35 CPX, A+ 158. E R-C 3.45 A-, A+ 179. Sena 3.50 A+, AA Valera has the 2nd best WHIP ).82 and 19th best ERA at 1.84. No HRs allowed is tied for first.

Story did have some injury concerns, when we signed him, but he also had a long stretch of playing a lot and putting up solid numbers. Many felt the COL home field padded his numbers, but look at these numbers: Away numbers in previous 4 seasons before signing with BOS (Story) or SDP (Bogey): .761 Story (.316 OBP/.445 SLG) .248 41 109 (960 PAs) 50 SBs (Great numbers on D metrics) .832 Bogey (.365 OBP/.467 SLG) .289 35 116 (955 PAs) 15 SBs (Poor numbers on D metrics) They were not that far apart on the road, in total value.

I agree with the backfire part. A keystone combo of healthy Bogey and Story would have been buttah.

Highest OPS in all of the minor leagues combined: 300+ PAs 1.033 Campbell A+, AA, AAA #1 1.017 Gasper AA, AAA #2 20. Jh Garcia .929 A-, A+, AA 25. Kavadas .921 AAA (traded) 32. Arias .906 CPX, A- 59. Westbrook .876 AAA 72. Anthony .868 AA, AAA 74. Meidroth .866 AAA 101. M Mayer .850 AA, AAA 110. B Gonzalez .847 A+ 135. Dalbec .830 AAA 153. Sogard .821 AAA 179. Yorke .809 AA, AAA (traded) 199. E Alvarez .804 AAA 207. Teel .800 AA, AAA (897 batters w 300+ PAs) Romero .844 (280 PAs A+) Go to 350 PAs (617 qualified) 1. Campbell 6. Jh Garica 41. Anthony 54. Meidroth 104. Teel 114. Castro .798 How about the 355 batters with 400+ PAs? 1. Campbell 30. Anthony 31. Meidroth 70. Sogard 100. Teel 105. Castro

Anthony and Campbell are of to nice starts in AAA. Teel, not so much. 1.239 Campbell (1-3 w HR and BB, today) 1.022 Anthony (1-4, today.) .265 Teel (0-3 w BB, today.) Grissom 0-4 w 2Ks. OUCH! (.604, now.)

I'm highly skeptical about him ever taking that $162M/6, if offered even way back when, but I won't disagree with the term plausible you used. I agree that he took a discount on the first extension and having BorA$$ as his agent tells a story, in itself. I think he was looking for his due and big payday, and the Sox knew that all along, too. Personally, I doubt he's have taken $180M/6 and maybe even $200M/7, but we will never know. Seeing what he got, makes me think he knew he could get more... maybe not all he ended up getting, but more than $200M/7, and to me, certainly more than $162M/6.

It's not surprising you have given up, and you have good reason to do so, but I'm still holding onto a sliver. I happen to think the teams ahead of us have major issues, too. I still think we have a lot of grit, and can put together another nice run, but time is running out.

Anthony has homered, and Woo is down 3-2 after 5. Sandlin got drilled w POR. Rogers off to a nice start (4IP 4H 1ER 0BB 8K) SAL was tied 0-0 going into the 9th, then let up 3. Valera 3IP 2H 0ER 2BB 3K The O has 1 hit through 8.

We can be pretty sure the two parties were never close enough to get the deal done. That's about it. For argument's sake, let's say the agreed on $210M/7. He's going to be 32 in a couple months, and is showing some signs of decline or injury. He may be moves to another position in the next year or two. Is it clear he will earn $30M a year x 5 more years?

Just finished watching on delay. That was awful. We are digging a very deep hole and looking like the team of the last 2 years.

OPS: .966 after 25 games .840 after 50 games (.714 from 26-50 gms) .797 after 75 (.714 51-75) .766 after 98 (.669 last 23 games) .474 last 13 games

Who is opposed to this?

I asked a question not made an accusation. I'm not sure he would have signed for "a lot less," but that is a valid opinion. Personally, I'm not sure he'd have signed for even $200M/7 in the winter of '21-'22 or even $160M/6 some suggest he might take back in the winter of "20-'21. Maybe he'd have taken $200M/8 back then or $217M/7 before '22, but who knows. I think we all agree, we wish he was still here. Are we all still certain he'll earn even $200M/7? (I'm less certain, now as he turns 32, soon.) I think we all agree the Story signing has not worked and would rather have Bogey at near the same price. Are people arguing with you that the Story signing was good or even okay (in hindsight?)

At his current cost? Knowing the tight budget JH demands and how it would mean not signing many other players?

I wish we still had him- with or without Story. I will add this... Bogey's fWAR numbers with us, his last 4 full seasons (no 2020): 4.6 6.0 4.1 6.0 Averages about 5.2 per season (peak prime years) Since the trade: 4.6 1.6 (which pro-rates to about 2.0 at this rate) 3.3 average/season as he nears 32 years old. There is still a good chance he can top 3.3 for 1-3 more years- maybe even top 4 again, but he may also be around 2-3 for another 2-3 years, then drop even more.

I'm not sure Bogey takes that offer, if it was given 1 or even 2 years earlier.

So, maybe JH does not want to pay today's prices for some better SP'ers. Might he agree to trade for some higher priced players that could be on the trading block, this winter (on teams not looking too good for 2025.) Signed Deals: Luis Castillo $22.8M x 3 SEA (vesting option $25M) Tyler Anderson $13M x 2 LAA Hunter Greene $8.8M x 4 w option CIN Logan Webb $18M x 4 SFG Mitch Keller $15.4M x 4 PIT J. Tailon $17M x 2 CHC Jordan Hicks $11M x 3 SFG Sandy Alcanatara $17.3M x 2 MIA Kevin Gausman $23M x 2 TOR Chris Bassitt $22M x 1 TOR Jose Berios $19M x 2 then $24M x 2 (18.7 AAV) TOR Blake Snell $31M/1 SFG (opt out) Robbie Ray $23M x 2 SFG Arb Pitchers (2024 pay & arbs remaining) Tarik Skubal ($2.7M: 2 of 3 arbs remaining) DET Gilbert Logan ($4M: 2nd of 4) SEA George Kirby ($800K: 1 of 4) SEA Garrett Crochet ($800K: 2 of 3 arbs) CWS Justin Steele ($4M: 2 of 4) MacK. Gore ($749: 1 of 3) WSH Nick Lodolo ($760K: 1 of 3) CIN Bailey Falter ($755K: 1 of 4) PIT Patrick Sandoval ($5M: 3rd of 4 arbs) LAA Reid Detmers ($770K: 1 of 3) LAA Braxton Garrett ($760K: 1 of 4) MIA Edward Cabrera ($761K: 1 of 4) MIA Cal Quantrill ($6.6M: 4 of 4) COL Austin Gomber ($3.2M: 3 of 3) COL Casey Mize ($830K 2 of 3) DET Zack Littell ($1.9M 3 of 3) TBR Aaron Civale ($4.9M: 3 of 3) TBR Pre-Arbs Brice Miller & Bryan Woo SEA Taj Bradley & Rene Pepiot TBR Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn SFG Jake Irvin, DJ Herz & Mitchell Parker WSH Andrew Abbott CIN, Jared Jones PIT, JP Sears OAK, Reese Olson DET

If you think about it, had Gio given us 25 GS and 150 IP, by today, and just a 4.20 to 4.50 ERA, we'd have not only saved the pen from a lot of IP'd but also not seen any starts like... 6 Wink 3 Bernardino 3 Paxton 2 Kelly 1 Anderson and 10 less from Criswell, Pivetta or Crawford. Had we been able to move Crawford to the pen, when he started showing signs of breaking down, the difference might have been enormous. I know... "maybe, maybe, maybe" and "everyone has injuries, and we need to plan for them," but if just this one thing came true, I think we'd be ahead of HOU, MIN and maybe KCR, right now. We'd be within a couple games of BAL & NYY. Yes, if each other team were give the same gift, we'd be right where we are now- or worse off.

I totally agree, but the fact is he DID spend bigly on a player in 2024, and it was an everyday player. The Story signing was the next biggest deal. $100M on Yoshi's was the third biggest deal. The biggest trade after DD was Betts, and did we get a pitcher for him? NO! JH has spent money. He has not spent as much as 6-8 other GM who jumped our spending, and he hasn't spent big on SP'ers since Sale & Nate. We need to trade or spend on pitching. We cannot keep counting on the same guys to do better or fill roles they were not meant to fill. Whitlock and Crawford belong in the pen. Bello should be a 5IP SP'er, hence the need for longmen like Whit & Craw.

Okay. We don't keep him with an offer of $217M/7, so what's the point? Plus, my point is we spent on pitching from 2016 to Sale/Nate (2019-2020) and stopped after that (Devers, Story & Yoshi.) Thanks for reinforcing it.