moonslav59

I was thinking Ray for Yoshida straight up. Doval did not have a good year. His WHIP was over 1.5. His ERA was near 5. He walked nearly 6 batters per 9 IP, but the 12 K/9 was good. Ray: $50M/2 Yoshida: $54M/3 I'd give Yoshida, Wikelman and Murphy for the two.

You'd think, once he realizes pitchers aren't throwing him strikes, he could just decide, before the pitch: I'm taking this, no matter what. Just by chance, he could get more walks of better pitches, when he decides, "I'm swinging, no matter what," like he seems to do, now.

I actually thought of Ray as an option, then forgot to bring it up. Yes, this is the type of deal, I think makes more sense than just handing Yoshida plus $12-13M a year away for nothing.

IMO, we have these "plus" batters: Duran, Casas & Devers Abreu, Ref , Yoshida and Wong (esp compared to other catchers) Anthony & Campbell (rookie years) Borderline: Story, Mayer and maybe a Grissom-DHam platoon, possibly Meidroth or EValdez on a platoon, only That's 9 with maybe 11 or 12. Most teams have 5 or 6, at best. A few have 7-8.

I'm not talking about removing Duran. Some have mentioned it, but way less than other suggestions. We have a surplus of plus batters.

As might a Bryce Miller or Luis Castillo one be, this winter.

Somehow, I missed this survey. Like Bell, I'm surprised at the Duran trade number. I don't see a contradiction in the idea on what we should do vs what we think we'll do. I'd vote no on us going over $241M. Hell, I'd vote no on going over $211M. My "ideal plan" would be to spend on pitching and make some small trades for more pitching or maybe a LHB-RHB swap. I would not offer a QO to anyone and think trading Yoshida would be good, but we won't find a deal worth it. (that's not a choice offered.) Who "should" DH? 90 games Casas and 72 games Devers (They play 1B when not DH'ing.) Wong should get the bulk of catching duties with someone like D Jansen on a 1 year deal, until Teel is ready. I'd say the FT CF job is Rafaela's to lose. I'd try Whitlock as the closer, first. Big 4 traded? I'd go with Mayer. I think 1 top prospect breaks camp with the big team: Anthony. (Abreu gets traded to make room in the OF.) The others will be delayed to gain an extra year. I'd give Brez a 5. We won't sign Burnes. My passion for the Sox has not wained. Do not sign Bregman. Trade Casas only for pitching and to move Devers to 1B. Play Campbell, Mayer or Grissom-Meidroth at 3B. (not a choice) My feelings on Bloom were meh ("bad") and have improved a little after watching some of his players/prospects do better.

SEA is well known for making a lot of trades, many surprising ones. I would not be surprised, if they surprise even you.

I'd set the odds at less than 1% we sign any of the 4 guys combined: Soto, Burnes, Fried or Adames. I'm not sure the group of Bregman, Alonso, Snell and Cole (if he can opt out) is much more than 1%. To me, our best bets for major FA signings are second/third tier: Flaherty, N Martinez, Nate, Manaea, Tanner Scott, J Hoffman, Estevez, Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, K Jansen, C Holmes, Sewald Maybe: O'Neill, Wacha, Bieber, Heaney, Severino, Lorenzen, Montas, Chapman, Robertson, Martin, Minter, Kittredge, Treinen

Everyone would rather have Abreu than Yoshida, but there are contexts needed to both ideas. Trading Yoshida means paying almost his whole salary to play elsewhere, for maybe a far-away, long shot prospect. The plus would be adding $3-6M AAV to our winter spending budget, while opening up a 26 and 40 man roster spot for a top prospect, who may or may not hit better than his 112 OPS+. Trading Abreu would bring back a much better return and ease the OF and LHB bottleneck, but not really add an open slot on the 26 or 40, unless we traded him for a not 40 prospect, who would surely be better than the one we might get for Yoshida. Abreu is also a plus defender, and I'm sure he'd move to DH. I could see us moving Rafaela to 4th OF'er (or platoon with Abreu.) vs RHP: Abreu LF, Duran CF, Anthony RF vs LHP: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Anthony RF I'm still for the super, long-shot idea of using Casas and Devers at DH and 1B, with Devers backing up 3B, where Campbell, Grissom or Mayer start most games. (Meidroth could be extended 3B depth.)

And that is if we take them at their word. To me, their word means squat, and apparently squat is an "A-hole." It should mean we are prepared to trade a prospect or two (the future) for a shorter controlled player(s.) as in the present, but it still does not really address the need to spend more.

According to Steve the Ump's numbers, the Sox were within about $15-16M of being the top spender in MLB from 1998 to 2000. In 2001, we were just about tied with NYY for the #1 spending team. It's not like JH, took over a cheap-spending team. We already had Manny on the books. The Yanks pulled ahead in 2002 and were over $50M ahead by 2003, as the Sox dipped to 5th. In 2004, the Sox jumped to 2nd by adding $25M to the 2003 budget, but the Yanks added $30, and were still pulling away. We cut $4M going into 2005, while the Yansk added another $23M to their total. It was after this that the Yanks started cutting, while the Sox stayed about even. The Sox jumped up in 2007 by jumping $23M, while NYY cut $4M. In 2008, the Sox cut the budget, again, and the Yanks jumped theirs. We cut another $11M into 2009, but retained our 4th place ranking. The Yanks barely added anything in 2010, while the Sox splurged by jumping $40M and into 2nd place. PHI passed us in 2011, as we stayed about even. We dropped spending by $23M and ranking (3rd to 4th) in the 2013 championship season. That limited the complaining by fans, for a while. We added significantly in '14 and '15, but finished in last place. We were 3rd in spending in 2015 at $187M. We slowly added payroll, as the Dodgers passed us and NYY. We were at about $200M in 2017. We jumped spending by $35M in 2018 and went to #1. We stayed #1 in 2019, but then started the big slash and burn plan. Despite the massive cut, we still stayed at #3 in 2020 and 2021. Why we cut so much for 2022 remains a topic of angry debate, as we dropped to 6th, but in reality, we actually spent $15M more in '22 than '21 (tricked ya!) The difference was that many teams went nutty with spending, and that was the major factor in our srop in the rankings, that year. Cutting $20M for 2024 was the main reason we dropped 7 more slots, although we were still about $5M from being top 10. I'm not as sure as others that a clear trend of continuing cuts is underway. It looks almost impossible to determine an trend, except that we have not jumped spending significantly in a long time, and other teams are spending way more. What we decide to spend in 2025 is a total guess. Nobody knows, but maybe JH & Co. I'm not even sure they have decided, yet.

Adding 5, unless 4 are pitchers would squeeze the roster and force trades or the 2 or 3 for 1 type, or a 40 man guy for a non 40 guy trade or two. I just don't see Soto as a Sox player, unless we trade Anthony or Duran for a top pitcher. If it was up to me, and I had $75M AAV, I might go with: $30-35M SP $12-15M Closer $10-13 M Set-up RP (LH'd?) Let's say $55-60M on these three I'd spend the remaining $15-20M on a RHB Catcher on a 1 year deal (D Jansen?) and another decent pitcher. That's adding 5. I'd then trade Abreu and DHam for another pitcher, making the net roster gain 4. SP: __FA__, Houck, Bello, Gio, Crawford RP: __FA__, __FA__, Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock __FA__, __Trade__, Fulmer/Criswell/Wink/Guerrero C: Wong, __FA__ 1B: Casas 2B: Mayer-Campbell, Grissom SS: Story, Mayer (Romy) 3B: Devers LF: Duran/Campbell/Refsnyder CF: Rafaela/Duran RF: Anthony/Campbell DH: Yoshida/Refsnyder The more quality route might work better: $35M SP, $18-20M closer, $15M RP, $5-7M Catcher (still trade Abreu and DHam.)

I seriously doubt we go so large and long on a bat, unless it is couple with a blockbuster trade of bats for a major pitching addition. Maybe, I'm letting my own wishes cloud my thinking, but I have to think, they know our area of greatest need is pitching. While we do have some promising arms at or near ML readiness (Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Guerrero, Penrod, Sandlin), and a core of promising young/younger pitchers already in the bigs (Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Slaten), it's not enough- either quality or quantity-wise. I would love to see us spend to the tax line or even go over, but I'll believe it when I see it. That is my mantra on winter spending. Show me the money!

Having faith it nationally and highly ranked prospects may not be misguided. Even "proven" hitters have letdowns. You go by what is expected, but it's almost always a dice roll. I'll go by OPS+ to put some factors into the numbers: 139 Devers 129 Duran and Refsnyder (Platoon) 120 Casas 114 Abreu (PLatoon) 112 Yoshida 110 Wong (excellent for a catcher) 104 Story 99 Romy, 92 DHam, 82 Rafaela (Grissom is a career 105 OPS+ guy.) If you count Abreu and Ref as one batter, we have 7 batters out of a 9 man batting order over 103. I'm not sure any other team had that. If a couple prospects can get to 103+, we might have 9 or 10 batters above that line. Almost all of these batters are pre-prime or prime. Only Story might be expected to decline due to age, and some could argue, he has already decline, sharply. Teel may not end up being a great batter, but he could easily match the catcher nrom for OPS+, after a year or two in the bigs. Mayer may take some time to meat the norm OPS+ for a middle IF'er, but I'll guess Anthony and Campbell would probably be plus hitters for their first full year in the bigs. That would give us 9 (10, if you count Abreu and Ref separately.) C- Wong (Teel by 2026-2027) 1B- Casas 2B- Mayer (Maybe Grissom-DHam platoon or Campbell) SS- Story 3B- Devers LF- Ref or Campbell CF- Duran RF- Abreu or Anthony DH- Yoshida or Ref v L Surely, we can part with 1-2 bats and still have more plus batters than most or all other teams. I am almost certain, we trade Abreu and maybe DHam for the best pitchers we can get in return. RHBs Grissom and Campbell will be given every chance to make the 26. Anthony will take Abreu's spot on opening day, IMO. Teel may be a year away. Mayer will depend on health- both his and Story's. I've been wondering, if we trade Mayer and have some faith in Campbell or the fallback of a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. Of course, with no Mayer, what do we do if Story gets hurt, again? Romy? Rafaela? Eeeek!

In theory, SEA could trade Castillo for hitting and then signa FA SP'er for the same or less money, of the Sox could just sign a SP'er at Castillo's cost and keep the bats.

Does SEA have any other SP'ers in the pipeline that are ML ready? That could allow them to trade a SP'er for a batter or two.

The chase rate and K rate were off-the-charts bad- like MLB historically bad by a long mile. I did not expect that, but his MO has always seemed to be that somehow he gets enough hits, despite swinging and missly, so often. He kinds kept that mystique going, especially for that 6-8 week stretch. It's hard to know where he goes, from here. You know they have tried to get him to be more selective- to little avail. He may just end uo being who he is and scrape by with the minimal OPS needed to survive, or just end up as a defensive replacement with some baserunning skills. He'd be a nice 4th OF'er in 2025, but I think they give him another very long look, next year. I hope his infield days are over, but if he gets more chances there, maybe he can be a super-sub type.

Agree on all of this, but I'd hate to lose Monegro or Jh Garcia. JhG only played 30 games in AA, and he still hit over .700. That's not too bad for someone who was in the FCL in '22 and A- to start '24. I'd probably be safe and protect JhG. I think Fulmer is supposed to be ready by opening day, but then again, Hendriks was August 1st 2024.

I almost mentioned that, and we sure could have used 66 IP at a 3.35 FIP, but I'm not sure I'd say he " burned" us. He still had a 1.35 WHIP, fueled by his 4.3 BB/9 rate. Still, lots of Ks and few HRs is why his FIP was decent.

Yes, it is possible to be good for a long window, without spending. Mostly, you have to suck for a long stretch, like BAL and HOU did, or be masters of ML scouting, like the Rays are.

I kinda feel like, for a first full season, he did about what the expectations were. Remember, JBJ started off way, way, way worse that this, and for a couple of seasons.

The Angels, too, but the Trout idea is just to fish-smelling.

I am not sure we spend even $55M, and $115M would give me a heart attack. I'm at the point, where I will be surprised just spend more than 2024.