moonslav59

Kershaw stays with Dodgers.

I think the chances are less than 10% on Bregman and maybe better than 50% on Arenado. I'm thinking less than 1% on Robertson, so I'm not sure anyone else, other than by trade, is not a big add. If we do add a 3Bman, maybe a trade follows: I just hope it's not Casas. Replacing Casas' bat with Breg or Arenado would hurt the O vs LHPs and RHPs. Even replacing Yoshida's bat is not going to be an improvement. (Only replacing Rafaela's bat would see a plus on O.) Maybe we trade for Arenado and trade Abreu for a catcher or closer, then go with Anthony in RF. Hard to know.

Do you give... Fitts & Cespedes for Herrera and Arenado + $8M x 3 yrs?

I don't think 81 wins was a fluke, last year. I think we got better, TOR got better, NYY might have, BAL and TBR did not. I'm thinking 85 wins, as of now.

I'd have settled for the one year deals given to... Yates $13M/1 Estevez $22M/2 (not really a closer) Even Sewald at $7M/1 gives us another option. Robertson might still sign for a 1 year deal... maybe 2.

So, that means it's adjusted for what? park factors? I'd be curious what percentile he'd be in, if they used a 270 player sample size. Your numbers do show he is not likely to be top 50% in even that size sample, but he might be close.

Okay. Thanks. I like to use 270 batter sample sizes to get a true read on where a player ranks (30 teams x 9 batters.) 129 batters is about 4.5 batters per team, so 124th could be out 134th out of 270, as the worse hitters normally are not top 129 batters in PAs. On ISO. I don't get the 18th percentile. fangraphs has him 46th out of 138 qualifiers since 2023. I may not be great in Math, but that is not bottom 18th %. He's 85th out of 129 for 2024, only. That's bottom 34% not 18%. Do they calculate ISO differently?

The thing about adding a RHB is that the right one could solve the catching problem or corner IF defense. The talk of Bregman or Arenado, IMO, does not fix the problems vs LHPs. It just adds a RHB, but takes away a better LHB vs LHPs (Casas or Yoshida.)

So, basically, we have no lockdown closer, so we will cycle through until we find one that gets the job done, or who sucks less than the others, as a closer. It boggles my mind, how they build up a pretty good roster, but leave such a gaping hole at a key position, like a closer.

Why is his 2023-2024 ISO top 25% in MLB, but he falls to the bottom 18th percentile? Why should I trust statcast over fangraph's rankings? I'm not trying to bust your balls, or say you are wrong.

Good list. I'd say Cora did a good job in '21, so maybe a two-hit wonder. How would you order these needs? I'd go: 1. Injury risks 2. Catching, 3, Closer, 4. LHB, 5. 3B defense, 6. 1B defense

K Jansen gets $10M/1.

On our opening day 40 man roster, a lot will depend on how many players we place on the 60 Day IL and who is added. We may still add 1-2 players from outside the system to fill some slots. I'd say Chris Murphy, Perales and Sandoval are locks to be placed on the 60 Day IL, but maybe not day one of ST'ing. Yoshida and Giolito are supposed to be ready by opening day. Whitlock might start the season on the 10 Day IL and miss 2-3 weeks, but I doubt he goes to the 60, unless there is some sort of setback. Maybe we add a RHB from outside the system (Bregman or Arenado?) I doubt we add a pitcher for the other slot, so maybe it will be Campbell and/or Anthony or some utility type player like Eaton or Toro. (maybe Fulmer) Let's assume Arenado & Campbell... (Whitlock on 10 Day IL) The 26: SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito, Crawford RP: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Winckowski, Wilson, Weissert, Guerrero (replaced by Whitlock, later) C: Wong & Narvaez 1B/DH: Devers & Casas 2B: Campbell & DHam 3B: Arenado SS: Story LF: Yoshida & Refsnyder CF: Duran RF: Abreu & Rafaela Farm: P: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Whitlock (IL) Kelly, Penrod (Fulmer?) Non P: Grissom, Romy, Sabol, Sogard, Jh Garcia ( Eaton or Toro?)

2024 was his worst, but the 3-4 years before 2024 were not vintage Bregman, either. OPS+ 144 from '16-'19 122 from '20-'24 120 from '23-'24 117 in 2024 He has been in decline for about 4-5 years. OPS vs LHPs since 2023: .794 Casas .704 Bregman .654 Arrenado I get the idea of improving 3B defense, but let's not pretend this is "balancing" the L-R line-up problem.

Would you do this deal? Casas, Fitts, Castro & Mullins for Arenado ($8M x 3,) Helsley & Herrera?

We are $31M under the tax line. I doubt we go over by choosing these two guys. Why would we take Arenado's full contract, when STL is willing to pay a pretty big chunk of it? I wouldn't give a prospect even if they pay near half.

They haven't done a stupid trade since Sale. LOL

They'd have to give us Herrera and Helsely, plus cash.

So, 11 and 18 means bottom 11% and 18%? He places 70th out of the top 270 batters by PA since 2023. (600+ PAs) His .194 ISO is better than 74% of MLB batters (30 teams x 9 batters=270 sample size.) Say "duh" all you want, but I was legitimately asking for an explanation, and with good cause. What am I missing?

Casas hits LHPs better than Arenado and Bregman, over the past 1-2 seasons. Neither swap outs would help in that area. It's not just about batting from the right side: you actually need to het lefties well to be a solution to that problem. This deal(s) would be about defense, and if we dealt Casas, it would hurt the O and cost a lot of money. I'm a firm no on trading Casas to add one or both of these guys. I'm a no on Arenado for a bag of balls, if he costs us more than $11-13M/yr. Bregman at 2B is a firm no, but with Arenado at 3B, it's not bad, but I'd still want Devers at 1B/DH and Casas at DH/1B with Yoshida gone or in a LF platoon with Ref.

Bregman has not done great in 4-5 years. I'd like him on this team for his defense, but he is not the RHB solution, nor should he be viewed as an .800 hitter.

It looks like we might start the season with a 6 man rotation, but if everyone is healthy and doing fine, we will likely move to 5. I think Crawford should be the pen's long man, when that happens.

Suzuki is being shopped, but I really like the Abreu-Rafaela platoon with Anthony and Duran taking the other slots. We need a closer, a catcher and improved corner IF defense. A RHB, who can fill one of those last 2 slots makes more sense, to me, than a RHB OF'er. I was fine with a one and done signing like Grichuk or Laureano, but I'm not high on the idea of trading assets for a RF'er. Also, Campbell could end up in the OF and is a RHB.

Only makes sense, if we have a deal in place to dump Yoshida. Even then, I'd look elsewhere.

If we trade Story, he'll win the MVP.