moonslav59

When did the trashcan banging stop?

Well, on the surface, Yoshida for Haniger, straight up would need $14M going to SEA, Maybe $7M in '26 and $7M in '27, but I really can't see why SEA wants to pay Yoshida $11M x 2 after 2025. Grissom might make them think he's worth the gamble. I'd trade Grissom, Yoshida + $14M for Garver. (I'd probably give $20M.) Do you think SEA would prefer DHam over Grissom?

Not only "selling low," but it seems like the 1Bman stock as a position has taken a tumble, this winter. Trades for decent 1Bmen got bad returns. 1Bmen FAs seemed to sell at decent prices- not inflated, like everyone else. I also feel like Casas could have a mega bustout season in 2025.

If only someone wanted Masa. Cora makes the call, but to me, the best team on O and D is having Bregman at 3B and Casas/Devers on a 1B/DH share. Everything else is secondary and less impactful, such as what do we do with Masa? Trade, Bench, Demote, play in LF are the 4 major options, unless he's on the IL. Play in LF hurts the D, but not by as much as we added with Bregman at 3B. Play LF w Duran in CF and Abreu/Rafaela platooning RF is better O than Rafaela playing CF FT, but the CF and RF D stays about the same. Trade makes sense, if we can find a taker and save a few $million. Bench wastes a bench spot for basically a DH/back-up DH/emergency LF'er sub. Demote helps nobody and hurts his value. (Might as well trade or DFA.) I know the team has said they want Rafaela to play CF as much as possible, but they also said Masa may get time in LF, so that pushes Duran to CF. Something has to give. I just hope it's not a Casas trade. To me, there is a drop off on O from Casas to Yoshida at DH. We can't afford a drop off on O, especially vs LHPs, where Casas is one of our best hitter and has been better than Masa and Bregman, recently.

How about Grissom and Yoshida to NYY for Stroman (owed $18.5M in 2025 w player option for $18M in '27, if he gets 140 IP.) Maybe pay off some of Yoshida's 2026 and 2017 years, since Stroman has just one year left.

Damn! Those guys are usually low-balling everyone.

I can't see him being worth $40M at 2B. His splits at Fenway give us hope he can improve on his .795 five year OPS, but he needs to play 3B to get the most value out of him and FOR THE TEAM! If we trade Casas, we might be worse on O with Breg vs Casas.

According to some sources, that puts us right on the tax line.

I hope so. We will not promote Anthony to platoon. Maybe Campbell could play RF vs LHPs and 2B vs RHPs, so he'd be FT. Maybe Anthony could play CF vs RHPs and RF vs LHPs, with Duran moving to LF vs RHPs (Ref plays LF vs LHPs.) I'm a big Abreu fan, but he was horrific vs LHPs, last year and had bad splits in the minors, too.

He's not a min wage player, so we should be able to save something via a trade.

Well, my scenario is based on Grissom doing better than we've seen, and maybe DHam reverting back to how he was before June 2024. I'm not expecting it, but he still has some hope. He just turned 24, and his arb 1 year is 2027.

As much as I crap on our pen, here are the top 4 pen guys from the ALE teams: (projected fWAR) BOS: 1.1 Chapman, 0.8 Whitlock, 0.7 Hendriks, 0.5 Slaten NYY: 1.4 Williams, 0.8 Cruz, 0.7 Hamilton, 0.6 Weaver BAL: 1.6 Bautista, 0.9 Akin, 0.4 3 guys TOR: 1.4 Hoffman (may start) 0.5 Y Garcia, 0.2 C Green, 2 at 0.1 TBR: 1.0 Fairbanks, 0.5 Uceta, 0.3 Cleavinger, 0.2 M Rod

Nobody wants Yoshida in the OF, but LF in Fenway has parked many an awful defender, although most hit way better than Yoshi has, thus far. A Yoshi-Ref platoon in LF would be a way better hitters than Rafaela, but the D would be way, way worse. With Anthony pounding on the OF door, adding Yoshi-Ref to the OF seems like a real bad idea, but maybe start the year like that, and see what happens. If he hits well, his trade value rises.

He'd probably get about $21M/3 as a FA, so we could eat all but that and maybe send him somewhere. Maybe SEA takes him and $10M in '26 & '27 for Haniger ($14.2M x 1) or Garver ($12M x1). Both are RHBs with a chance for a resurgence in '25. Garver is not good on D, as a catcher, but he could act as our 3rd C, and allow for multiple PH for ur catchers in a game. Haniger is not good on D in RF, but he can't be much worse than Ref. (Ref hits LHPs better.) I doubt LAA wants Yoshi and cash for Soler ($12.1M x 2) SFG? Robbie Ray ($23M x 2) straight up?

The Bregman signing has perked up my optimism for sure, and I don't want to burst anyone's bubble. The guy has a 1.250 OPS at Fenway and is a real pro. That being said, he has a .795 OPS since 2020. That's a 5 year sample size. It's a 122 OPS+, which is very helpful, but this is not the 7-8 WAR guy from 2018-2019. If the thought is to balance the L-R situation, his OPS vs LHPs since 2023 is .704 (.746 since 2020.) Hell, trade-talk-guy, Casas, is over .790. We need to maximize this guys value by playing him at 3B and batting him 2nd- hoping his .315 OBP in '24 was a fluke.

litocots is no longer the go-to site for contracts and budgets, but they have us at $7.5M over the first line, and count the full $40M towards the AAV CBT line. If they are wrong, and or we want to get under tax line, tare the contracts we could try to trade: (CBT$) $19.2 x 1 Giolito $18 x 3 Yoshida $9.2 x 5 + option Bello (not happening) $6.3 x 5 Rafaela (unlikely)

Agreed. Heo longer a lefty killer. He could regain that, but for 2 years, he's been worse than LHB Casas v LHPs. His big asset is 3B defense, overall decent hitting with upside and maybe clubhouse leadership. he plays 2B, we lose a big chunk of his value to our team.

Who platoons with Abreu in RF? Ref? There goes the "elite D."

He still wants a longer term deal, but he did not want $171M/6 w DET. That was $51M/3 more than our offer. It's not hard to imagine im getting a $171M/6 offer, next winter,he has a big 2025. He'd take that over $80M/2 remaining. He also will not have a offer to deal with, so maybe more teams get involved in the bidding, next winter. Certainly, $40M x 2 remaining will not be easy to pass up.

Grissom just turned 24, so there is still time for him to show he belongs, but he does not have a slot reserved for him. He has to earn a place on the 26. As of now, I have him in AAA on opening day, but I have DHam as the utility guy on the 26. He is no sure bet, either. Of course, Campbell is on my 26, so there could be room for Romy or Grissom, if Campbell is held back, a while. Adding Crochet was huge. It seems like a year ago. The other thing is what else we did to the rotation: we added Buehler, Sandoval (August?) and essentially Gio, too. We replaced Jansen and Martin with Hendriks and Chapman (plus Wilson,) so that is not a step forward, but our pen looks deeper all the way through the AAA roster. I'm liking how this team is shaping up. Health will be the main deciding point, IMO. The only players returning from injury that have to prove themselves are Gio and Hendriks. The rest, I feel like being healthy is all they need: Devers, Casas, Story, Buehler and Sandoval. (Okay, maybe Story has to prove he can hit, again.)

He's still one of our best hitters vs LHPs, and over the past 2 years, he's been better than Bregman, too. We cannot afford to lose his bat. I know Yoshida and his contract clog things up, but Casas is better than him, too. Bregman may hit better than Casas in 2025, but Casas has hit better since 2023. Just play Yoshi-Ref in LF, at least until Anthony gets the call.

It's probably right to project the same amount of injuries, but maybe other players, but Casas, Story & Devers could be very impactful.

To me, it's not about knowing or not knowing how well Bregman can play 2B. While 2B is still a somewhat open position, and Bregman would answer the question, there, I was fine entering ST'ing with a DHam/ Romy-Grissom competition for a platoon situation there, until Campbell wins the job, outright. We could not saye knew what we had at 2B, but with 4 options, I felt pretty confident one to two could make 2B a plus in 2025 vs the bottom 5 it was in 2024 with EValdez, Grissom, Reyes and DHam. We do know Devers sucks at 3B defense, and Bregman is top 5-10. The choice seems so obvious, to me. I know Cora knows more than all of us, and he also has to be the one to face an upset Devers, if that is the case- not us. The other factor in the move is that Devers cannot be worse than casas at 1B defense, IMO. We could see a plus there, too.

This site was pretty upbeat after the Crochet deal, but it got gloomy pretty quickly. Although nobody really expected us to get Soto, the interest in him did get many of us thinking maybe we will spend a lot, this winter, even after missing out on him. I will say, spending so much on Buehler, Sandoval & Chapman on short deals was not my favorite choices, but they do seem like steps up from Kluber, Richards and Paxton. Bregman's deal is bigger than Yoshida's, and seems bigger than Story's, too. (Certainly, the AAV is. It is almost as much as Story + Yoshi.) I am surprised at how much we spent. I was hopeful, but had set my expectations at zero, after so many letdown winters in a row. We added 3 SP'ers. We added a brand name everyday players who bats RH'd. We added Chapman and have Hendriks and Gio returning, as if they are new signings. We know we know we will have injuries in 2025, but 3 or 4 of our best players were hurt in 2024 and should be back in '25: Devers, Casas, Story & Whitlock. Between the addions, the returnees and the 3 top kids, it's hard not to be optimistic, again.

Fangraphs has us projected at 85-77, which is the second best record in the AL (7th in MLB.) Sox fWAR 4.5 Crochet 4.0 Devers 3.6 Bregman 3.3 Duran 2.9 Houck 2.6 Bello 2.3 Casas 2.0 Abreu 1.8 Buehler & Story, 1.5 Rafaela & Giolito, 1.3 Crawford, 1.2 Yoshida, 1.1 Chapman & 1.0 Anthony 16 players at 1.0 or higher (8 at 2.0 plus)