moonslav59

I'm not sure we can read that much into one play. If Stoty's ar is an issue, we could eventually see Mayers at SS, Story at 2B and Campbell at 3b or OF.

When the talk of the Arenado and Castillo trades were being floated, I mentioned Rafaela as a piece to the trades as a way of bring the cost to a more reasonable level, while giving the other team a players who is not really a "salary dump," at this point, anyway. I think there are some teams that do not view Rafaela as an overpay, despite BTV having him at -6. Would you trade Giolito, Rafaela and Mullins for Luis Castillo? Would SEA?

I just wish they'd start in 2025 not 2026.

Waking a sleeping giant!

I totally agree. No challenges: just have the robo ump call it from the start.

Our offense has been criticized, some this winter, and rightfully so in most cases, but we have a lot of potential, and much is not speculative, as we just need a few guys to have seasons like they already have had- some in the last 1-2 seasons, like Yoshida, Wong & Casas. Some 3-6 years ago, like Story, Grissom, Bregman and maybe like Devers in 2019 or 2022, but just repeating last year's APR to July over the full season would also be great. Of course, Campbell, Anthony, Narvaez, Mayer and to some extent DHam, Rafaela and Abreu are speculative.

Maybe Bregman can shake off the slow start rap, this year and put up monster numbers.

Funny. I was hoping Fogel would make the 26! LMAO.

OK, sorry. I do think Rafaela as a super-duper utility man could still get 450-550 PAs, even without major injuries. He can play OF, 2B, SS and by moving others to 3B or 1B can fill in their slots, if a corner IF'er goes down. He's getting paid a lot for a bench role, but getting that many PAs, not to mention late inning defensive play or even PR'er duties, he can still earn his keep. The higher pay seasons are still a few years away, too. He could earn his way back to a starter role by then, or we could trade a starter to make room for him, if he seems deserving, by then.

Career in minors: Campbell: .327 21 82 (.986 OPS) in 601 PAs (per 650: .327 23 90) Anthony: .284 32 142 (.871) in 1114 PAs (per 650: .284 18 80) Mayer: .307 37 162 (.828) in 1218 PAs (per 650: .307 20 90)

Certainly, Mayer may not reach expectations, but other than injuries, he shows no signs of being a bust, and he's played in over 270 games, so far.

I'm not sure how much stock should be put into projections for prospects who have never played a single game in MLB. I'm also not sure how much stock should be put into how many #4 picks have done well or not. Many had Mayer as the #1 or #2, for what that means. To me, I see Mayer as ML ready on D. Only his health could add or subtract from that value. He may not be great on D, but he seems like he'll be a sure plus on D. His success in AA in '24, with his bat, is not a big sample size, and was at AA not AAA, so that is the area with the biggest questions, IMO. OBP is always the hardest part to project into MLB. We've seen so many players with .340-.370 OBP in the minors struggle to stay over .300 or approach .325. To me, if Mayer is 100% healthy, he may just need a few weeks to find his groove, after missing the last couple months of 2024 (just as he was promoted to AAA.) He may be MLB ready by mid April, if all goes well. If he is raking, and Story is looking good, we could have a tough question to answer, even with Bregman at 3B: who plays SS and who plays 2B? (Where does Campbell play, if Story or Mayer is at 2B?)

It can't hurt, and maybe seeing them get more attention might light an even bigger fire beneath him.

Yes, that's another way of putting it. He has not been like Story, who in his brief moments of being healthy, has not been able to hit, very well. Now, Story's bat skills are in question. Mayer has not reached that point. This also begs the question, why would one full and healthy season boost his ranking and value, so much? Would that prove he will stay healthy, going forward?

It's about his health, to me. I'm not sure the spotlight hurts. He does well, when he plays.

When a player gets injured as much as Mayer, their value drops, but it does not mean his skill levels drop, too. Will Mayer ever have a full and healthy season? If he does, he could easily jump back to top 10 or top 5 or 6. That's a big "if." Maybe not Trevor Story "IF." but still.... I think he still has enormous trade value, but with Story's issues, we can't afford to trade him, at least until Arias is closer to ML ready. (Maybe Romero makes it possible by having a monster 2025 season.)

It's not "giving up" on a guy, if you trade him for value, and hopefully higher value, especially if combined with other players with value, too. We did not "give up on HRam." We got Beckett for him. We did not give up on Armas & Pavano: we got Pedro for them. We did not give up on the group of players traded for Schilling, Sale and other greats. We traded player we valued highly for a player we valued even higher or needed more.

Where did I say we "need a trade?" Our team still has some real need areas. I've always looked to try and improve the team by trading from area's of strength and or excess to upgrade the areas of need. Could it backfire? Sure. We could trade DHam and then watch Campbell get hurt or severely disappoint at 2B, and wish we still had him. He could go on to do better than that stretch in 2024. Having a strong and deep bench is a true value, but to me, we need a better catcher more than 4 second basemen (Campbell, DHam, Romy & Grissom.) We need a closer more than we need 4 second basemen and 7 OF'ers (Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Campbell, Refsnyder and Yoshida) or so many AAA RP'ers with promise and trade value. It's not easy finding a trade partner, at this point in the year, and the idea of a 3 for 1 deal is even harder to make happen, unless 2-3 of the players are non 40 man roster add-ons, but if these kids turn out like we hope, we can afford to trade all of these 5 guys: Wong, DHam, Abreu, Kelly and Mata for a top 10 catcher- maybe top 2-4 or a closer. I'm not saying I'm for any trade like mentioned, but the framework looks doable. I realize Kelly, Mata and the like don't add much value, so maybe a Wink or Guerrero might be needed to get the type of catcher or closer I want, but I think we need another player or two: namely a real catcher and or a real closer.

Maybe not. I'm not sure how much a couple months matter, but he did miss the end of 2024, so you are probably right. BTW, career minor league games: 272 Mayer 245 Anthony 137 Campbell Yes, Mayer's development has been started and halted by injuries, too many times, and that has stunted his "growth" and prolonged his "readiness," but he has grown enough, IMO to be our best back-up SS. He will have some struggles, as do most rookies, but he'll be fine, if needed.

I don't mean to sound like I'm against the kids on the opening day roster, I just see reasons why the Sox might hold them back a while. 1. They seem loyal to the vets, although Dham, Romy, Abreu and Rafaela are hardly established vets. 2. Yoshida is getting paid $18M a year and may get a chance to earn his pay or build his trade value. 3. The whole years of control issue. 4. Positional bottlenecks: 2B if Bregman plays 2B and OF if Devers plays DH and forces Yoshida & Refsnyder into the OF conversation. I'm pumped up to see our top prospects get a long look, this year. Strong springs might force the issue, sooner-rather than later, but at some point, 2-3 of the top 3 will get a legitimate chance. If Campbell hits the ground running, he may even win over the 2 slot, which would allow Bregman to bat 5th. If Anthony comes out swinging, we could see him earn the 3rd, 5th or 6th slot. I'd say, the line-up, with both, might start like this: 1. L Duran CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas 1B/DH 4. L Devers DH/1B 5. R Story SS 6. L Abreu RF/Refsnyder LF 7. R Campbell 2B 8. L Anthony LF/RF 9. R Wong or Narvaez C Bench: Rafaela, Ref or Abreu, Narvaez or Wong and 1 from Yoshida/DHam/Romy

It's not just because Story goes down. I think Mayer is ready or real close to ready. Just my take.

I could see Narvaez getting more playing time than Wong by midseason. Guerrero has a lot of competition, but he looks better than most others for that 12th or 13th slot of the staff. Campbell and Anthony seem ready, to me. Maybe has the hardest road ahead, unless Story goes down for the count.

"If they are raking," it will be hard to argue against them making the starting line-up. Even if the others are raking, too, I'm pretty sure one or both will be up. It's not certainty, if the vets are looking good, but I'd play Campbell in a heart beat over DHam/Romy, with Bregman at 3B, Devers at DH or 1B, Casas at the other and let the OF deal with any sort of crunch from Yoshi-Ref or Anthony. I do wonder, if some sort of trade might still go down, before opening day: maybe a Grissom or DHam trade, or possibly Abreu. I think trading Rafaela would put us under the tax line, but I doubt he'll be shopped. These are good choices that have to ne made. This is not, "should we start Arroyo, Peraza or Chavis."

True. Add... Narvaez: can he hit and is his D as good as some say it is? DHam: was the middle of 2024 a fluke? Romy: can he build off 2024 and keep up his nice splits v lefties? Mayer: can he stay healthy and be healthy if and when Story gets hurt.

Astros-Cards revived Arenado taks.