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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I can see progression with some "underperforming players," and I thought of mentioning it, but I couldn't bring myself to express any optimism over any Yankee players.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
When I wrote that, it didn't feel right. Thanks for the correction. So, SEA is one reason we are one game under. -
I fully agree, and while Devers at 1B does make the most sense, playing Story, Campbell, Bregman, Abreu. Duran and others at DH seems almost as ill-fitting as Story at 1B. Ref makes sense at DH vs LHPs, and it would improve our defense by playing Anthony or Rafaela in RF vs LHPs. Rotating the others as "rest days" vs RHPs is fine. (Abreu would never DH as a rest day, since he gets his rest on the bench vs lefties.) Romy has been hitting lefties well, too, but with Devers at 1B and Ref at DH vs LHPs, he'd be the off man out- no biggie. If the plan is to rotate Campbell, Anthony, Duran, Mayer, Story and Bregman at DH that is about once a week for everyone. That could allow them to never need a day off from the line-up- just off on D. The issue with Story being too weak a hitter to play 1B also applies to DH, so maybe he gets actual days off, and it becomes a 5 man rotation vs RHPs, only. That seems manageable, doable and maybe even beneficial to all involved. DH: Refsnyder vs LHPs/ Campbell, Mayer, Anthony, Bregman & Duran v RHPs- every 5th time 1B: Devers 2B: Campbell & Story or Mayer SS: Story or Mayer 3B: Bregman & Mayer or Campbell LF: Duran or Anthony CF: Duran or Campbell (Rafaela back-up) RF: Abreu or Anthony (Rafaela/Refsnyder back-up) We basically have 7 players (Bregman, Campbell, Duran, Story, Mayer, Anthony and Abreu) for 6 positions plus DH vs RHPs, but we know Abreu sits vs LHPs, so it becomes a perfect 7 for 7 match (counting Abreu and Refsnyder as one.) Devers would rotate to DH, too, and who plays in his stead would be determined (Romy, Wong or a current infielder.)
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We are about 3 games short of the quarter mark of the season. Being under .500 is a big bummer, especially when you consider we have yet to play the 3 best AL teams by record: NYY, DET & SEA. There is still a lot of time left, but we can't afford to keep falling backwards. Fangraphs has us ranked... 9th in Pitching (6th RP while 18th in relief IP/16th SP) 9th in Offense 4th in Defense, although 16th and 15th in DRS & OAA 3rd in baserunning (3rd in SB with less CS than #1 and #2) With numbers like these, we should be at least 20-17. -
It seems a few Yankees might be significantly over exceeding 2025 expectations, and I have to wonder about the odds of it continuing: .972 Trent Grisham (.651 in previous 1300 PAs.) .935 Ben Rice (.613 in rookie year in 178 PAs) .879 Goldschmidt (Turns 38 in SEPT and was at .763 from ages 35-36) .759 A Wells (Not out of line for a young player who hit .722 before 2025.) These are their top 4 batters, by OPS after Judge's 1.275. I doubt Fried continues his 1.01 ERA, and I sure wish we had signed him over Buehler, but WTH... Rodon at 2.96 looks doable, going forward, but who knows, whit him? Luke Weaver at 0.59 in 15 IP. Hmmmm....
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Top Sox OPS on the farm (80+ PAs) : .906 Anthony- what are we waiting for? .950? .905 Romero- maybe his early hype was not wrong, afterall. .885 A Anderson- maybe early returns were misleading on him, too .883 Toro- getting his shot, now. The leash may be short. .874 Eaton- may never make the big club. .859 Ehrhard- Will the 22 year old be promoted to AA? .858 A Lugo- gotta admit, I don't know much about this 21 y/o kid. .858 F Encarnacion- He's only 20, so maybe .851 A Liendo- I'm not sure I share in enthusiasm on this .844 Arias- starting to show he can do it at the A+ level. Next stop: Portland. .830 Rosier- took a long time to show some life. Was part of Jay Groome for Hosmer trade. .811 Sabol- would have been nice to hit just .711 with BOS. .808 Mayer- seems blocked, right now. .808 Alcantara- seems to be slipping, recently, but is still just 20. .807 Jh Garcia- does he get the AAA call, soon, or maybe when Anthony comes to BOS. .807 N Taylor- not bad for the 22 y/o in A+ ball. .796 Bleis- finally showing some signs of reaching the early hype was given. .790 Binelas- the other guy included in the JBJ and DHam for Renfroe trade. .771 Grandal- will he ever get a chance, if no current catcher gets hurt? How about 1B? .769 Y Rod- apparently has the tools. .767 Grissom- starting to slip from the great start of the season
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Thanks, my whole family, all 5 sisters and I, made to his side in time. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
MLBTR had this on a some Sox pitcher club options coming up this winter: Buehler: An ace-caliber pitcher early in his career, Buehler hasn’t looked the same since undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in August 2022. His stint in Boston has gotten out to a shaky start. While his 4.28 ERA through 33 2/3 innings is serviceable, he’s striking out just 20.7% of opponents while averaging a personal-low 93.5 MPH on his fastball. Shoulder inflammation sent him to the injured list last week. The mutual option was always an accounting measure designed to push the $3MM buyout to the end of the year rather than disbursing it throughout the season as salary. The team seems likelier to decline its end than the pitcher does. Giolito: By exercising his player option, Giolito unlocked a 2026 option for the team. It’s valued at $14MM and comes with a $1.5MM buyout. If Giolito pitches 140 innings this year, it’d convert to a $19MM mutual option (still with the $1.5MM buyout). That’d give him a chance to test free agency if he wants. Giolito has an uphill battle to 140 frames. A hamstring strain cost him the first month of the season. He finally made his team debut last week, working six innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts in a no-decision against Toronto. The Rangers tagged him for six runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 frames tonight. Hendriks: The Red Sox added Hendriks on a two-year, $10MM deal over the 2023-24 offseason. They knew they wouldn’t get much in year one, as Hendriks had undergone Tommy John surgery the prior August. He attempted to make a late-season return last year but was shut down after a minor flare-up of elbow discomfort. Elbow inflammation shelved him for a couple weeks to begin this season, though he made his team debut in mid-April. Hendriks allowed two runs on three hits in one inning during his first appearance. He has rattled off five straight scoreless outings since then, albeit with four walks in five frames. His 95 MPH average fastball is solid but below the 97-98 range at which he sat during his elite seasons with the White Sox. Also, Duran's arbitration deal contains a ’26 club option with an $8MM base salary. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the Sox decline the option. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I often think I get a good feel for the team by May, although surprises have often occurred, later in the seasons. I can't really get a reading on this club. I wonder if it's because I just don't want to let go of my preseason optimism or I've been more distracted this past few months, than ever before. I don't want to bring anyone down or unleash anyone's need to express sympathy to me, but I lost both my parents in the last 6 months. I'm in Maine, now, for my 97 year old father's funeral and memorial service. When people say, you never know what it's like until it happens to you, they were right. Nobody does or can prepare you for this. -
It's not unheard of to learn a new position during a season, but not by just throwing the guy out there without a few weeks of practice. This should have been done a few off-seasons ago, instead of making empty promises to Devers about long term 3B tenure. I'm not sure Story is the guy to pick to play 3B, out of all our infielders, but I also don't see Campbell or Mayer at 1B. Bregman could be the better 1Bman from the infield, but now we start shuffling a shuffle.
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Sabol hit a couple dingers for Woo, while Wink went 6 scoreless (3H, 0BB, 4K) GRE lost, but Arias went 3-5 w a 2B. SAL lost, but Cohen pitched well. Cespedes 0-4 w 4 Ks. Judice pitched 1/3 IP w 4BB and a Hit
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I've been partial to Jh Garcia, but I could see one of these guys moving into or near the top 100: Early or Tolle Clarke or Y Rod Long shot: Romero
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The PTBNL in the Priester for Y Rod trade was announce, per Steve Adams: The Red Sox announced Monday that they’ve acquired right-hander John Holobetz from the Brewers as the player to be named later in last month’s trade that sent righty Quinn Priester from Boston to Milwaukee. Holobetz, 22, was the Brewers’ fifth-round pick in the draft just last summer. The Old Dominion product didn’t pitch in 2024 following the draft but is out to a terrific start in 2025. He’s pitched 24 innings across five appearances in A-ball, logging a flat 3.00 ERA on 16 hits and five walks with 31 strikeouts. Holobetz has fanned 31.3% of his opponents and issued walks at just a 5.1% clip. It’s a nice start to his pro career, but as a former college pitcher starting out in A-ball, Holobetz hasn’t yet been challenged by older and more advanced competition. How he fares in eventual moves up the ladder will be telling. The 6’3″ righty wasn’t ranked among Milwaukee’s best prospects heading into the season. He worked primarily as a reliever in college, but the Brewers have given him longer stints so far in pro ball.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If Anthony bats .650, we lose nothing on O, but could lose on D. We don't need to bench Refsnyder v LHPs, when we call-up Roman, so that O may not be lost, unless Cora plays Raf over Ref. Mayer's role would be more complex. I doubt we call him up to replace Story, Bregman or Campbell, so who is he he replacing in the line-up? If it's the 1B combo of Romy, Wong and ____, then I see a chance for improved offense, except maybe vs LHPs, where Romy seems to have become the next Refsnyder. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'm fully in favor of calling up both Mayer and Anthony. Anthony should be up, yesterday. I'm not pissed and Brez-Cora for it not happening the second I want it to, but I full believe the chances one or both give us a big boost are too high to wait much longer. I do see a loss on D by benching or platooning him, so Anthony can play FT, but Anthony is not a bad LF'er, and I think Duran is a plus in CF, even if not in Rafaela's class of greatness on D. The possible significant boos on offense is just too great to wait. The Mayer call-up is more complex and problematic, unless a current infielder moves to 1B or Devers plays 1B, and the DH slot could be used to rotate all infielders plus Refsnyder at DH, thereby allowing Mayer, Story, Bregman and Campbell a FT or near FT slot. These two seem ML ready, to me, so they are due their chance- now or later, so why not now? If the idea is to move a current infielder to 1B, we can wait to call up Mayer, until that player is ready to play 1B. Call up Anthony, today. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
There is no easy in house solution, except to trial and error it, until we hopefully find a guy who is about to have a good year. I hope we don't cycle through 6-7 bad arms to find a good one. It might be too late, by then. Our best bet, IMO, is to convert SP'ers to the pen, as some come off the IL and put the squeeze on the 5 man rotation. We keep moving them to AAA to keep their arms stretched out as starters, but maybe we need to just pick 1 or 2 and just make them pen arms for the rest of 2025. One difficult aspect is that Criswell seems to only do well as a starter, although the sample sizes may be too small to be a predictor of the future. He is not our 5th best SP'er, even with 2-3 guys on the IL. I also like Fitts as a SP'er- not a long man. I'm not sure Dobbins would thrive in the pen. Would Gio get pissed, if we "demoted" him to the pen. (He hasn't looked that bad in his starts, so far.) I think we need to see Crawford as a pen arm, if he ever returns. The must starters are Crochet, Buehler and Bello, IMO. Houck gets a longer leash as a starter. That's 4. Gio looks like the 5, unless we go with Fitts, when healthy. That leaves these guys as possible pen additions, at some point: Crawford Fitts or Gio Dobbins Sandoval (AUG or SEP?) Drohan (not on 40) Stock? AAA pen arms: Guerrero, Wink & Kelly Burdi, I Campbell, Mata & Cellucci (not on 40) Sandlin, Early, Y Cruz, Mullins, J Adames, W MIlls, A Adams (long shots)

