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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    True but more than half get in. (I'm not for the idea.)
  2. moonslav59
    While I do think 154 games is enough to weed out lucky teams, I agree. The long season is for a reason. Asking teams to win short series after short series adds back in the luck factor, or as some call it "a crapshoot." Baseball is not like basketball and football. The playoffs should not be like theirs.
  3. moonslav59
    Great point and list. Much had nothing to do with a radical cut in winter spending. While the payroll went up, as Maz keeps pointing out, much was due to arb raises and the extensions that just kept the status quo. There was basically no new spending after 2018, and any new spending in 2020 and 2021 never replaced what was lost, in terms of expiring contracts or players traded away (Betts, Price, Beni...) I will say, I do not think the nate extension was bad, but it wasn't as good as the JD signing or Kimbrell & Sale trade. The Bogey extension was great, despite the opt-out. I doubt we get him for $20M a year w/o that. We can say he should have worked to get a non opt out with Bogey and a Betts extension, but that is really speculating on things with too many moving parts.
  4. moonslav59
    Let's get their catcher back.
  5. moonslav59
    Kinsler did solidify the 2B defense, as Nunez looked pretty bad out there. There were also guys like Brasier, who did very well under DD.
  6. moonslav59
    Agreed, and I'd say the same about the 2019 Sox. Sure, he let Kimbrell and kelly walk without replacing them, but he was accused of overkilling it on the 2018 team, so blaming him for 2019 seems far-fetched, to me. It also begs the question about how high were expectations going into 2014 or 2022. If you look at the 2021 roster and consider Bloom added Wacha, Strahm, Hill and got our best season out of Schreiber and Story in '22, one can wonder why it all turned so sour. On paper, it looks like the winter moves should have helped.
  7. moonslav59
    He should not be blamed for being handed a massive budget to work with. He did pretty well with his biggest contracts, although the Price deal lessened the return we got for Betts. The Sale extension hurt, but to me, it made more sense at the time than the Yoshida signing plus deals like Gio+Kluber+ Richards + Perez x 2. One major criticism he got, at the time was "emptying the farm," or "leaving it barren." Call it luck on some of his guys, but the fact is he kept maybe the best 6 out of 6 or 7 prospects. Devers, Houck, Duran, Crawford, Rafaela, Beni He drafted or IFA signed: Houck, Duran, Casas, Crawford (most were not high draft picks) Bello, Rafaela (IFAs) Shugart, Murphy, Bastardo, Wikelman, B Gonzalez Shaun Anderson (traded for Nunez), Scherff (for Robles), Blaylock (for Urias) Quiroz (for Brewer) This is better than decent, considering lower draft picks.
  8. moonslav59
    That would be a good idea, but I think they'd need a 27 man roster with 28 for Sundays. The union would likely insist on this, and with good reason. If you teams a day off every week, but play a double header every Sunday, teams would play 7 games a week, and the season would be 162 days long + the AS break. The season could be 24 weeks long. That's about 3 weeks less than now, so in theory, teams could get another day off 3rd week and play 20 games in 21 days.
  9. moonslav59
    I like a lot of MN's higher-priced players. Buxton's injuries turn me off, bigtime, but if taking on his salary greatly reduces the return, I'd consider taking the RHB and returning LHBs and prospects, pre-arb and arb guys to get some good pitching. Carlos Correa: $37.3M x 3 ($33.3M tax hit) NOPE Byron Buxton (Mr. Injury) $15.1M x 4 ($14.3M tax hit) DOUBTFUL Pablo Lopez: $21.75M x 3 (but $18.4M tax hit) A BIG YES Joe Ryan & Bailey Ober both have 3 arbs left. I'm not sure why MN wants to trade them, now. Both BIG YES Ryan Jeffers RHB catcher has his 3rd arb due. He seems like a perfect fit to bridge to Teel. BIG YES BTV: 44 Joe Ryan (value back in May) 37 Lopez 23 Ober 22 Correa 13 Jeffers 0 Buxton So, Lopez + Jeffers= 50, Ryan + Jeffers =57 and Ober + Jeffers=36. I doubt we'd pry two SP'ers away, so one plus Jeffers looks like a great match for the Sox side of the trade. I'm not sure who they like on the Sox, but maybe if we took on Buxton's salary, they'd want Abreo ($29M.) DHam has $11M value, but that seems too high. He did very well at 2B D and has speed, but I'm not sure a .700 OPS (the new .750) is good enough to make those two worth $50M. They might take Mayer for Lopez + Jeffers or Mayer + Dobbins for Ryan + Jeffers. Abreu+DHam might get Ober + Jeffers. Hard to know what other teams might offer, too.
  10. moonslav59
    There is just too much money in playoff games to decide not to do it. Maybe we go to 14 first.
  11. moonslav59
    If we count Thornburg, then do we count Moreland and Nunez as good? How about Kinsler? Do we count the Pearce ext as major (and bad?) Lots of gray area. I do think it's clear DD did better with major deals then B & B (and add Ben, if you want.) Of course, spending $20+M on JD & Bogey gives you a better chance at success or meh, than spending 5-10M on 1 year deals.
  12. moonslav59
    Okay, 90% was too high a number to throw out there. You are right, but... I'd say the Nate extension and PomPom trade were a meh's. I'm not sure the Thornburg trade was a "major deal." Price was close to a meh. Not extending someone is pushing it, since Betts refused to extend. The Sale extension failed. Thornburg was a miss, but I would not count that, but since Shaw did well for a couple years, I guess you can count it. If you count all the non-extensions, then Bloom & Brez's 25% becomes more like 15-20%. HIT: Sale trade, Kimbrell, JD, Bogey ext., Nate trade, Pearce, Moreland & Nunez (not major) MEH: Price (close to bad) Nate ext, Pomeranz BAD: Sale ext. & Chris Young, Thornburg (not major?) Deciding what is major or not is up for debate. I could have counted Re3nfroe and Strahm as plusses for Bloom, but then the JBJ trade, Andriese, Sawamura, Marwin and others as bad ones. too. I see about 5-7 hits for DD, 2-3 mehs and 1-2 bad. That's 8-10 Good to meh and 1-2 bad. One could argue 9-1, but 8-2 is maybe better. So 80% to 25% in DD's favor. Maybe 70% to 20%.
  13. moonslav59
    Then expand the roster to 27 or 28 players (+1 for DBLHDRs) and have less days off.
  14. moonslav59
    We've had 5 years of about a 25% hit on our GMs biggest deals: Pivetta, Turner, Duvall, Jansen & Martin: HIT Kike I, Ottavino, Wacha & Hill: Meh Giolito, Grissom, Kluber, Yoshida, Story, Richards, Barnes ext, .M Perez I, M Perez II, Kike II, Paxton: Yuck-a-doodle-doo-doo! You can count DD's bad moves on just 2-3 fingers.
  15. moonslav59
    Interesting idea. BTV has him at 37, which is less than Abreu + DHam, but I'm sure they'd hang up on that call. They may want to trade RHB Buxton, but he's always hurt. He's worth 0.4 on BTV. Would Abreu,DHam and Dobbins (Fitts) get the job done?
  16. moonslav59
    -69 Story (owed $77.5M) -24 Yoshida (better than I thought, as we could "save $30M" by trading him and worth more than Castillo on BTV.) -23 Giolito (worth less than he's owed.) -15 Whitlock (seems steep) -8 Hendriks (owed $4M) -7 Rafaela
  17. moonslav59
    I'd rather have Campbell or Mayer at 3B (and 2B) and use the money on pitching.
  18. moonslav59
    It was bold. It back-fired, no doubt, but it was a big trade- something Bloom did not do since being forced to deal Betts. I guess trading Beni was kinda bold. 1 semi-bold trade in his last 3.5 years. Instead, he let guys walk in free agency. Lovely!
  19. moonslav59
    We knew some would never stick at SS, and that's why it wasn't such a big deal. Many teams put their best athlete at SS, but that does not make them a ML SS. It just means we draft the best athletes. Zanetello looks like a wasted pick. Antonio Anderson has a ways to go, but who complains about the Campbell pick, and if he ends up at 2B or OF? Riemer was the 4th SS in our top 6 picks in '23. He may make it. It looks like Arias will stick at SS, if his bat can keep him good enough to make the bigs. No SSs taken in 2024 (Cason is P/SS), so let's see how this works out. Romero can't stay healthy, but he seems to have stepped up, this year. Cutter Coffey was traded Lugo was traded but was not going to be a SS. All-in-all, I think we did okay with picking SSs, although none have made it yet. 2 Mayer, 3 Campbell, 7 Arias, (Meidroth is #9 and can play SS) 10 Cespedes and 14 Romero. 2 of our top 7 were SSs. 5 of the top 10 were SSs or can play SS 6 of 14, the same. Let's give 'em a chance.
  20. moonslav59
    84 Kirby 80 Gilbert 49 Miller & Woo -10 Garver -16 Haniger -31 Castillo According to this, something like Mayer and Abreu gets us Gilbert or Kirby. Mayer gets us Miller or Woo That assumes SEA wants Mayer, when they have a SS.
  21. moonslav59
    This would be fine, and the pen would be improved by moving SP'ers to the pen, but we'd still need serious pen upgrades.
  22. moonslav59
    Yes, I saw you had Fitts on your "small list," but he seemed to look good enough to make a medium category. Perales won't stay injured forever. Maybe saying he is on the "small" list for 2025 is okay, but not for 2026, IMO. Priester is no longer a prospects, but he might as well be one. He's maybe borderline small-medium. Dobbins gets little love, and I get why, but he keeps doing well. I'm not gah gah over our farm pitchers, but I think it looks better than 5-10 years ago, and there are quite a few pitchers who have some real promise, even if the promise is rather a long shot or too far away to get excited about. Perales, Fitts, Tolle, Sandlin Dobbins, E Rodriguez, Monegro, Cason, Valera Early, Mullins, Paez, Wikelman, D Reyes, Wehunt, Neely, Bastardo Dean, Clarke, Tygart, Carlson, Ingrassia, Gambrell, Mata I know I sound two-faced to be touting quantity, when I keep talking about need quality not quantity and mediocrity gets us nowhere, but when it comes to prospects, having so many will likely lead to someone doing way better than anyone expected. Nobody thought all that much about Houck, Bello, Crawford and Whitlock, but they all did better than most thought they'd be.
  23. moonslav59
    According to the most recent BTV values I can find, here is what they have: 71 Duran 65 Mayer 53 Anthony (I'd put Anthony above Mayer) 47 Bello 40 Teel 39 Campbell I'd have Campbell over Bello & Teel) 35 Houck 29 Abreu 24 Crawford 19 Casas (This seems low.) 11 DHam
  24. moonslav59
    I know it is risky suggesting a Mayer trade, with no sure-handed back-up SS in the system. That leads me to think the idea of moving Devers to 1B and or DH and keeping Mayer a better idea. Decide who is best at 3B: Mayer or Campbell. If they still have faith in Grissom, and he does well in ST'ing, maybe he joins the mix at 3B. Maybe choose one, but give another some reps there- just in case. 1B/DH: Devers & Casas (Romy/Wong) 2B: Campbell or Mayer with Grissom-DHam platoon as depth. (Romy) SS: Story or Mayer (Romy/Meidroth) 3B: Mayer, Campbell or Grissom w Devers as depth (Meidroth AAA) Don't spend on a 3Bman. If someone gets hurt, maybe we try Meidroth at 3B or just move Devers back, in a pinch. If Story gets hurt: Mayer at SS, Campbell/Grissom at 3B and Campbell or DHam-Grissom at 2B. I think we would still have decent depth at all 4 infield positions and a solid 5 batters at IF and DH. The defense would be significantly better- just with Story or Mayer at SS and anyone else at 3B. DHam was damn good at 2B, and Campbell has to be better than EValdez and a few others we tried at 2B in '24. Better O. Better D. Why not?
  25. moonslav59
    Thanks for doing this. It's nice to see soxprospects.com have some competition. Have you considered going 21-40 or even top 60?
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