moonslav59

MLB OBP .312 in 2024 (and 2022) It was .320 in 2023. .312 is the lowest since 1972. It was over .330, every year, from 2004 to 2009. That's a 20 point drop from over a decade ago. It was above .340 3 times from 1996 to 2000. I think one could argue that .340 is the "new" .350 or even .360. Duran was at about .345 from '23 to '24, which is the 20 point from from your .365. Out of 115 batters with 1,000+ PAs since 2023, Duran places 38th at .343- just behind Jose Ramirez and Gunnar Henderson, but ahead of Bregman and Lindor. He's 49th out of 186 with 800+ PAs. 57th out of 271 with 600+ (top 21%)

Of course we'd all be concerned, same way were were with Pedey, JBJ, Beni and Betts. Many of the best prospects jump from AA to the bigs or have just a brief stay in AAA. Yes, it'a concern that he never got to play in AAA, due to the injury the day of his call-up. His injuries have slowed his ability to prove his readiness. I do think Anthony is "more ready," and Campbell was so great in 2024, that he seem "more ready," too. I do remember reading a few articles a year or two ago, that thought Mayer would be ML ready by 2024. The injuries got in the way. I do think if Story gets hurt, Mayer would take the job from Romy and DHam in a matter of days, or even hours. Bogey and Betts had less PAs at AA + AAA than Mayer, and Bogey only played 10 games at 3B before becoming our FT 3Bman in a playoff hunt season. We were concerned, of course, but he was "ready."

Yup. This could be a massive letdown, and when coupled with the loss of Betts, 5 years ago, could be the final nail in JH's coffin. He'd have been better off keeping any offers quiet.

He can also turn a BB into a 2B with a SB. His ability to score from 1B on a 2B cannot be forgotten, either. I'm not sure I have ever seen a baserunner take an extra base more than Duran did in 2024. Many times it looked easier than it was.

I like this train of thought. 2023-2024 GB% leaders (200+ IP) 60 Logan Webb 59 Fried 57 C Sanchez, F Valdez 55 Houck 54 Bello 53 Stroman 51 H Brown 50 Suarez, Bradish, Elder, Glasnow, Nate

While MIN is no big spender, they do seem to spend more than many teams. Would you do the same trade and add Story for Correa in the mix? MIN would save, a lot of $$$.

I've seen the data, which is based on league wide averages, and the differential is pretty significant. I do wonder, if the numbers change, if your leadoff guys has a .345 OBP and your #2 is at .420. MLB 2024 OBP 1. .327 2. .326

Let's see how quickly the posters who thought JH would never spend large and long, again change their views. I'm not trying to slight anyone. This trend has been long and steady, and it begs the question on why not just keep Betts at half the price? I think JH was hit by a 2 by 4, but it took him 3-4 years to feel the sting. Call him a thick skull or numbskull, but if he pulls this off, I think Sox nation will breathe a great big sigh. If we come up short... I can't even think about it, now. He'd have to sign Burnes, Fried, Scott and more....

15-20 more PAs than the 4 slot and maybe 35-40 more than the 5 slot might cancel that out.

With Duran and Soto 1-2, maybe not.

The 3 hole is no longer viewed as important as it once was. 2 and 4 are tops with 5 and 1 worth more than 3. Go figure.

Maybe some team looking to rebuild and not caring about their budget might take Yoshida with Mayer and Abreu for someone good, but who is that team? PITT is too cheap (Mayer, Rafaela, Abreu & Yoshida for Keller & Reynolds) MINN? (Mayer or Teel, Abreu, Yoshida for Pablo Lopez & Jeffers?)

Say we sign Soto, Higgy, Holmes and Scott, then trade Abreu and Fitts for Crochet. We'd be pretty close to the second tax line, but I'd like this roster: SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito/Crawford RP: Scott, Holmes, Slaten, Whitlock, Hendriks, Crawford, Criswell, Wink 1. Duran CF 2. Soto LF 3. Casas 1B 4. Devers 3B (Yes, 4 straight lefties) 5. Story SS 6. Anthony RF 7. Yoshida-Ref DH platoon 8. DHam-Grissom 2B platoon (Campbell looming) 9. Higgy-Wong C Rafaela Utility

A soto signing would likely be coupled with a trade for a SP'er involving Abreu. LF: Soto CF: Duran RF: Anthony 4th: Rafaela (pretty expensive) Do we also trade him?

....still time for another team to jump their bid.

Not sure we can believe all these rumors. Who are these guys on X? Word is the deal is 12 years, so I doubt we get a better AAV. (Why not just add 2 years and a few million?) Could it be $700M/12? That's over $58M x 12! ($650/12 would be about $54M per.) I'm trying to not get my hopes up.

Monty ($22.5M/1) is owed less than Yoshida $55.5M/3.) AZ had 16 more wins than losses in 2024. I don't see a fit, even if we pay enough to make the money even. What would it look like? Yoshida + $8M a year x 3 and _______ for Monty? Would the player(s) be Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Abreu and or a good, but not top 4 prospect?

Who could be a third team involved in a trade that send Casas and/or Abreu to SEA, STL or HOU? Do those 4 teams have the prospects needed to help reach the value of a pitcher we could get, assuming we add to the pot for the 3rd team, too? Casas to SEA/HOU/STL ______ (SP) to BOS Abreu & _____ to _____?

There is hardly ever firm evidence any prospect is ML ready, and many that proved themselves in AAA fizzle out. One main reason we are not hearing about Mayer, Campbell, Anthony and Meidroth making the opening day roster is that none were Rule 5 eligible, and so are not needed on the 40, until we know they will be a FT or near FT player in the bigs. Another reason is the years of control issue that comes with adding someone to the 40, earlier. These two factors play into the opening day conversation, right? To me, Mayer is already a better defender than DHam, Grissom, Romy and Valdez. Only Romy is a decent SS on D. I think DHam looked fine at 2B on D, and his bat earned him a look in 2025. Grissom is an unknown on D at 2B and has some serious questions to answer. He will get a strong look in ST'ing. Some seem to have high hopes for Romy, but he has a long way to go to show he is a better option than Mayer or Campbell at 2B and Mayer at SS. Story is our starting SS, so that makes Mayer breaking camp a tough issue, since he has no experience at 2B. That may make him "not ML ready" in a positional sense, but if Story gets hurt in ST'ing or early in 2025, my guess is Mayer will get very strong consideration to move right into a FT role at SS for the Sox. He has to be better than DHam and Grissom at SS, and Romy to a lesser extent. Essentially, Mayer is blocked by Story, but IMO, is ML ready. Campbell is harder to evaluate. He has moved around in positions, but he seems to be fine at 2B or OF. His bat looks great, but admittedly, the sample size is small. I doubt we rush him, since we have 2-3 guys looking to get a chance to win the 2B job in ST'ing and over the early part of 2025. I do think, if we were looking at Reyes and E Valdez as the starting 2025 2Bmen, Campbell would have a very good chance of winning the opening day 2B job, or taking it over, once those two self destructed over early 2025. If our OF wasn't one of the best and deepest in MLB, he could win an OF job by early April, too. How can I prove it? Of course, I can't. Just as nobody can prove these two are not ML ready. To me, Anthony is ready, yesterday. If we trade Abreu and don't add any other OF'ers, he's the opening day FT RF'er. I could also see this happening by early April, or maybe the day after he gains one more year of control.... (no Abreu trade) vs RHP: LF: Duran, CF: Anthony, RF: Abreu vs LHPs: LF: Duran, CF: Rafaela, RF: Anthony Teel is not ML ready. Meidroth is a tough call and is blocked by Devers, Story, Mayer, Campbell and maybe the DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. He can beat out Romy, but Romy might not be on the 26.

I'm also one that thinks spending on Teoscar, instead of pitching would be a mistake, unless we trade some lefty bats (Casas, Abreu, Mayer, DHam....) for a top pitcher. Soto makes sense, and a "bridge to Teel" catcher, but the rest of the focus needs to be a frontline SP'er and two very good RP'ers, one being a lefty (Scott.)

The Astros need a 1Bman and OF'er, along with some serious offense. They also made the playoffs with 4 of their best 6-7 SP'ers out for most of the year. The problem is, almost all their SP'ers are injury-prone. Framber V just has one arb left. McCullers is worse than Paxton, Richards and Kluber, in terms of injury history. Javier has 3 years at $12.8M AAV ($53M/3 salary), also a risk Luis Garcia has 2 arbs left and is a big risk. Hunter Brown (26 y/o) is pre arb (4 years of control) but may be untouchable. Arrighetti (24 y/0) is pre-arb (5 years) and may also be untouchable. JP France (turns 30 in '25) and Ronel Blanco (31 y/0) are also pre-arb, but are they upgrades over what we have? I'm not sure we can get what we need- a durable SP'er who is clearly better than Crawford/Bello/Giolito. Casas or Abreu plus Crawford or Priester/Fitts for Brown? Casas, Abreu and Fitts for Framber and a reasonable extension?

I agree, and of course, more will be needed to offset the negative value Yoshida has, but those two are in negative territory, as well. As much as BTV says Luis Castillo is negative, I'm not buying it. I do think SEA can sign someone like him for the same AAV, but they have no use for Yoshida, even if we take back Haniger and Garver, as well. I'm not sure AZ or STL have "use," either. AZ wants to shed salary, so I'm not sure taking Yoshida saves them what they want. Arendado is blocking other players, and it's not so much about money for STL, but they would have to like getting out from the $74M/3 owed him (32>27>15). Yoshida is owed $55.8M/3 ($18.6M x 3.) The worst part for the Sox is the added $12M to the lux tax budget x 3 years. The suggested deal that brings us Helsley with Arenado, looks too good to be true, and of course, it does not include Yoshida, but it does include $15M. Arenado, Helsley, Graceffo & $15M for Cespedes and Fitts. Maybe tweak it to Arenado, Helsley and no cash or Graceffo for Cespedes, Fitts, Yoshida and Teel. (We can sign Higgy.)

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

There is certainly a very high risk, and at double money anyone gets, it would spell DOUBLE TROUBLE, if he declines, significantly after 5 years. The Trout and Pujols contracts scare me, too. We'd also be hearing how we could have had Betts for half the money. I see the value in spreading the risk between 2-3 players rather than one. $650/14 on Soto ($46.5 AAV) or $220M/6 Burnes + $180M/6 Fried + $85M/4 Teoscar + $65M/4 Scott= $550M but an AAV of $106M years 1-4 $68.5M years 5-6

I'm far from sold on Bregman, too. I actually think he is too risky for the long term deal he will get. I'm no fan of Arenado, either, but if we can balance his money by giving Yoshida, along with others, I'd rather go that route. Bregman has had some super long slumps, in the last couple of years, usually early in the season. 2024: .534 in a 37 game stretch from early April to May. He was at .700 on July 3rd and only .720 on AUG 6th. Only his .912 OPS over his last 36 games "saved" his 2024 numbers. 2023: .690 through his first 50 games. .704 after 70 games. .718 after 92 games. His last 69 games at .918 carried his numbers. 2022: .555 for 30 games from mid May to mid June. He had a good long finish to 2022: .841 over 117 games. Career: 100 points better in the second half. While he did have his 3rd best OPS+ season in 2022, that almost looks like an outlier. OPS+ 114 from 2019-2020 134 in 2022 120 from '23-'24 It seems like ages ago, he was a god (ages 24-25) with a 157 OPS+. His bWAR has been pretty solid in the past 3 seasons: 4.6, 4.9, 4.1, but was 7.9 and 8.9 in '18 & '19. fWAR: 7.9>8.3> (1.3 COVID)>2.1>5.4>4.5>4.1 (2 year decline)