moonslav59

Could be. The Montas signing looks way over. Others about as expected.

MLBTR had Montas at $22M/2. He got $34M/2.

If we trade Story, he'll win the NL MVP, next year.

Mets pivoted from Soto and signed Montas at $34M/2. LOL

No clowns on X have verified anything.

And those are the facts!

A look at who brought us the foundation we have, right now: Ben: Devers (also not traded by DD) DD: Houck, Duran, Casas, Bello, Crawford, Rafaela, Perales, Jh Garcia, Wikelman, Murphy, Shugart, Castro Bloom: Anthony, Mayer, Whitlock, Abreu, DHam, Yoshida, Wong, Wink, Guerrero, Refsnyder, Dobbins, Kelly, Bernardino, E Valdez, Romero, Jo Garcia, E Rod, Sogard, Monegro, Paez, Mullins Brez: Slaten, K Campbell, Teel, Montgomery, Giolito, Criswell, Arias, Cespedes, Grissom, Priester, Fitts, Tolle, Sandlin, Cason, Romy, Hendriks, Weissert, Penrod, Valera, D Reyes, Ju Gonzales, Wilson, Fulmer, Booser, I Campbell, Gasper

Me, too. If we get Soto and Scott, plus maybe Higgy or Jansen, I'm not sure we'd also outbid everyone for Burnes or Fried. Maybe we do sign one, and use Abreu and others to beef up the pen via trades.

The AAV for Fried is just about $3-5M more, but with 3 more years. Burnes might be $29-30M a year, which is about $8-9M more than Castillo and for 7 yrs vs 3. If we get SEA to pay $15M, it would lessen the AAV to about $16M, which would allow us to sign a top RP'er for $10-12M, Maybe... Castillo (+ cash) and Hoffman = Burnes Castillo + Scott= Fried

Here are some comments from soxprospects.com on our top pitching prospects: 6. Perales: potential mid rotation starter w ceiling as a #2. Could be high leverage RP'er with premium bat-miss ability. 11. Dobbins: potential depth starter or multi innings RP. Ceiling is mid rotation SP, Plus velocity w wide ranging arsenal. 12. Fitts: fringe back-end SP or multi IP RP. Ceiling of 4th SP. Has command & control. Needs a 3rd pitch. 13. Tolle: wide range of outcomes. Could have untapped potential due to late focus on pitching. 14. Sandlin: Potential swingman. Ceiling mid rotation SP. Stuff ticked up in '24. 17. Early: depth SP w ceiling as 4th SP. Nice change up. 18. Wikelman: up & down swingman. Ceiling as leverage RP. Has 4 pitches. 20. Cason: more potential as pitcher. Standout athleticism. 21. Guerrero: middle innings RP. Ceiling as leverage RP. 23. Valera: Raw arm with need for 3rd pitch, 24. Penrod: ceiling as mid RP. Premium raw stuff. 25. E Rod: Ceiling as backend SP. 4 pitch mix, but no go-to pitch. 26. Monegro: Ceiling as solid mid inning RP. 27. D Reyes: high upside arm. Throws strikes. 28. Paez: ceiling back end SP. Strong control & command w advanced secondary offerings, Lacks strong FB. 29. Mullins: Ceiling as 7th inning RP, Premium bat-missing skills but lacks control. 33. Wehunt, 36, Neely, 37. Clarke, 38. Tygart, 39. Bastardo, 41. Dean, 42. Carlson, 44, Ingrassia

I'm more of a stats driven guy than personal observations and scouting reports. I've been wrong on a lot of pitching prospects, so I do not pretend to know more than anyone else. soxprospects.com seems to be pretty conservative on projecting our pitching prospects ceilings. A look at some OPS Against numbers encourages me. .411 Valera (63 IP w FCL + Salem) .505 Y Ruiz (46 IP w DSL) .537 Ingrassia (58 w Salem) .552 Dean (80 w Salem + GRE) He gets very little love. .580 E R-C (90 SAL + GRE) .596 Monegro (76 FCL + GRE) .601 Kirwin (69 SAL) .597 Wehunt (97 w 3 teams) .625 Cohen (98 SAL) .651 Sansone (72 SAL) .674 Mullins (89 GRE) .675 Paez (97 SAL-GRE) .698 Rogers (83 GRE) True, none of these guys are above A ball, and none had over 100 IP but still... Smaller sample sizes: .341 D Reyes (17 IP), .385 O Sanchez (17), .491 Colina (30), .503 Carta (31), .542 Go, .546 Rivera (30), .564 Galvan (33)nzalez (22) Above A Ball: .590 Bonnin (42 GRE-POR) .611 Dobbins (126 IP POR-WOO) .619 Wikelman (84 POR) .622 Kwiatkowski (79 POR-WOO) .631 Perales (34 GRE-POR) .632 Early (104 GRE-POR) .651 Guerrero (54 WOO) .654 Penrod (62 POR-WOO) .670 I Coffey (114 POR) .672 Priester (38 WOO) .686 Bastardo (45 POR)

I'm not sure JH has to get approval for upping an offer by $10-20M over 14 years. Even if he does, I'm not sure "No" will be the answer.

After deferments, the Snell signing was not all that much more than projections. If SEA traded Castillo, they could sign any of these guys for similar money. Most are younger and have similar STEAMER projections for 2025 and should be better in following years, due to age. STEAMER has Castillo increasing his value from 2.3 to 2.8. He is owed $23M x 3 with a tricky option. $26M x 6 Fried (3.2 projected/3.4 in '24) $23M x 5 Flaherty (2.5 from 3.2) $22M x 2 Eovaldi (2.8 from 2.7) $21M x 1 Pivetta (2.5 from 2.0) $17M x 3 Severino (1.9 from 2.1) Of course, the Sox could just sign one of these guys, instead of trading a top prospect for Castillo, but the idea of SEA including some offset cash would maybe allow BOS to also sign Scott or another RP'er and a catcher. You mention how Snell improves Castillo's value, but so do these FA options for BOS when lookin at trading for a 32 year old pitcher owed $23M x 3.

A Soto signing would stretch to a possible future window, with a possible 2-4 year rebuild inbetween. I agree, though. The Sox have a young foundation already established, plus 4-5 prospects that are near or at ML readiness, plus another 4-5 prospects that could be significant by 2026 to 2027. bWAR and age 8.7 Duran 27 3.7 Devers 27 3.5 Abreu 25, Houck 28 2.8 Rafaela 23 2.6 DHam 26 2.0 Crawford 28 1.6 Wong 28, 1.5 Bello 25, 0.9 Slaten 26 & Whitlock 28, o.4 Casas 24 (injured) Yankees (10.8 Judge is 32, 2.6 Cortes turns 30, soon, 2.0 Cole is 33, 1.9 Rodon 31) 3.4 Volpe 23 3.1 Gil 26 2.5 Wells 24 2.0 Schmidt 28 1.5 Chisholm 26 1.3 Cabrera 25 0.9 Poteet 29

As much as I have tried to construct a trade involving Yoshida and Castillo, I seriously doubt SEA takes Yoshida. A more likely trade would be something going to SEA for Castillo + $15-20M. That would make Castillo more attractive to BOS than signing a FA SP'er. If the Sox viewed Garver as a capable back-up catcher for Wong, until Teel is ML ready, maybe we could include Yoshida as a money balancer, and not as filling some major need by SEA. Mayer + Yoshida for Castillo + Garver would not be accepted by BTV, and maybe not by Brez & JH, either, but I think I'd do it. I'm not sure how much SEA values Mayer, or if they view him as ML ready could be the deciding factor. Would Mayer for Castillo + $10M a year be acceptable to both sides?

The one thing about the Yanks is that I do think they have limits on their budgets, so if they end up going silly on Soto, it could significantly affect their future spending, to the point where it hurts them. The same could be said about the Sox future budgets.

Does the "EBAY+ auction include factoring in taxes and cost of living between NYC and Boston? I guess one could also factor in endorsement possibilities between the two cities as being a plus to NYC.

I'm not so sure the owner's net wealth is as big a factor as you make it out to be. JH is filthy rich, too, and when we are talking about adding another $10-20M, spread over 13-14 years, the percent of cost vs net wealth between Cohen and JH is negligible. If the bidding goes beyond the point of reason (Has it already?) then I guess you can say that if Cohen wants Soto, at any cost, he will win. We know JH sets limits.

The timing depends on other team's asking Soto's agent to "check back" before agreeing with another team. It sounds like the Yankees have moved on from that point. Maybe the Mets are still in that mode. Maybe the Dodgers have asked they be consulted, at the last minute, if such asks are for real. I keep pinching myself to see, if this is all for real.

I understand why we value players differently. I don't understand why STEAMER moves Abreu's defense from +6.3 to -3.1 for 2025. That makes no sense, to me. They also moved his offense from 8.5 to 3.9- a more than 50% drop off. To be fair, they did this to Robles: -0.4 to -4.2 on D and +20.7 to + 5.1 on O (a 75% drop on O.) I think we do match up for a major trade, especially with Castillo. (I agree that Yoshida is highly unlikely as part of a SEA-BOS trade, even as just a money balance.) Of course, if SEA does not value Mayer, Meidroth, DHam or Grissom , then a deal may not work. I doubt we trade Campbell, but if we offered him, I think that changes the likelihood. Involving a third team makes projecting a trade nearly impossible.

What I believe and what 30 other GMs believe may not be the same. I get that. Obviously, they think the PR hit is not worth the possible upside of signing him. I'm just giving my opinion, knowing it does not mesh with others, in this case. I'd sign him to a cheap deal, if we add Soto. I think the massive high we'd get from a Soto signing would help canceL out the negative PR from adding Bauer.

"Cost controlled" at negative value according to some. You can sign a similar pitcher at the same money- even a younger one. Abreu may end up as nothing more than an excellent platoon RF'er, but he has 5 years of control and should improve with age. Of course, Mayer's value is speculative, but so were the prospects you guys traded to get Castillo, in the first place. I think Castillo is clearly in decline. He turns 32, soon. I think you may be thinking he's worth more than he is worth- perhaps the same way we are overvaluing Abreu and Mayer. It's hard to know how much SEA's top brass values players like Mayer and Abreu. Hell, they may want someone else, we haven't even thought of.

My guess is the Mets will or already have countered with something higher than $625/13. With taxes and personal preferences on where to play, maybe a slightly higher offer will not be enough for the Mets to get the prize. I have to think the Sox can and should add a year and another $20-25M. It would bring down the AAV, which might help us stay under the tax line for a year or two, along the way. (Of course the Mets could add a year or two, as well.) I have no evidence to prove this, but I'm thinking Soto might prefer BOS and lower taxes. The Dominican connection may be overblown, but I'm sure when Soto was growing up, watching Manny, Pedro and Papi on the Sox must have made an impression. Being teammates with Devers might tip the choice to Boston. Maybe, I'm being a homer, here, but it's the time of year where hopes and dreams take over.

Major politically incorrect situations can and are forgotten very quickly, in today's society. It would be an issue for about a day- maybe a second day or third, if he gets the call.

Well said. I think a lot of focus is given to "recency" as a pitchers is about to turn 32. OPS Against: .611 age 29 .671 age 30 .705 age 31