moonslav59

It could end up being AZ St at ND.

He is a RHB, and we could play Anthony in CF with Duran in LF, but I'd rather trade for a SP or RP+C.

That's a lot of money.

I like Fried more than Burnes. I'm not sure why.

Signed FAs: (ranked by MLBTR) 4. Snell $182M/5 5. Adames $182M/7 12. Kikuchi $63M/3 15. Severino $67M/3 21. Holmes $38M/3 23. Boyd $29M/2 27. Montas $34M/2 30. D Jansen $8.5M/1 36. Higgy $13.5M/2 44. Bieber $26M/2 d"Arnaud $12M/1 Chapman $10.75M/1 Remaining: 1. Soto 2. Burnes 3. Bregman 6. Fried NR Roki Sasaki 7 Alonso, 8 Flaherty, 9 Santander, 10 Manaea, 11 Teoscar 13 Walker, 14 Scott, 16 Profar, 17 Eovaldi, 18 Hoffman, 19 O'Neall 20 Torres, 22 Estevez 24 Pederson, 25 Heaney, 26 H Kim, 28 Pivetta 31 Quintana, 32 Conforto, 33 Scherzer, 34 Minter, 35 Goldschmidt 37 Buehler, 38 Yates, 39 Soroka, 40, Kittredge, 41 Gibson, 42 Kahlne 43 H-S Kim, 45 Verlander, 46. Sugano, 47 Robertson, 48 Ogasawara 49 Bader, 50 Turnbull, NR K Jansen, C Martin, C Morton, C Kelly

I saw Adames as a possible plan B for missing out on Soto (Devers to 1B/DH.) At that money, he's not the inpact guy Soto would be, so using the money for pitching makes more sense. Does this mean Bregman gets $200M/7? (HOU offered him $156M/6.)

If the Cards decide to go full reload, maybe a blockbuster could be made. To BOS: Sonny Gray $25M, $35M, $30M or $5M buyout ($25M AAV) $65M/2 or $90M/3 Arenado: $27M, $22M, $15M (AAV $25.6M x 2 and $30.6M in '27) counting $5M COL payment in 2025 and 2026. Helsley: $7M last arb Total Money: $49M in '25, $47M in '26, $20M in '27 (no Gray) AAV ($58M, $51M, $15M) To STL: Yoshida: $56M/ 3 (AAV $18M x 3) Crawford, Abreu, Cespedes and Fitts (Maybe we need to sub Mayer for someone.) The net cost to the Sox for a SP, 3Bman and Closer would be: $31M in '25, $29M in '26 and $2M in '27 AAV: $40M in '25, $33M in '26 and +$3M in '27

#10 Boise St won their conference title, so they will likely be seeded #3 or #4- sad, but true. If #8 SMU beats #17 Clemson, I think they get the #3 slot. If Clemson wins, I'm not sure if they get the #4 slot or #15 AZ St does. AZ St beat #16 IA St 45-19, today. Update projected: 1. Oregon- Penn St winner 2. Texas or Georgia 3. SMU (if they beat Clemson) or Boise St 4. Boise St or Clemson/AZ St 5. Notre Dame or Oregon (if Penn St wins) 6. Penn St or ND (assuming ORE wins) 7. Texas, if they lose to Georgia 8. Ohio St (up one, if GA loses) 9. Tennessee (up one, if GA loses) 10. Indiana (up one, if GA loses) Georgia might be 10th, if they lose 11. Alabama or SMU, if they lose to Clemson 12. AZ St or Clemson Miami has a case to be made over ALA, maybe So Carolina and Ole Miss, too.

Olney reported on X ... ...the Cardinals will probably have to cover some of Arenado’s salary or take back another unfavorable contract as a salary offset....It isn’t known whether or not the Cardinals would be open to eating money or taking an unwanted contract back, which could be a further obstacle towards a trade being completed.

I think it really comes down to trading Yoshida, at whatever loss it comes to, but we probably should wait until he is healthy, and hopefully is showing he can hit near .800 for a while. That might mean he starts the season on the non 60 day IL and then plays for 3-4 weeks + before we trade him. I've looked long and hard for a trade partner, this winter. The best hopes might be for Arenado, assuming STL takes his contract. We'd have to include some nice prospects, but not a top 4 or even 5. Maybe Arias or Cespedes & Bleis. Would you give Cespedes, Bleis & Yoshida for Arenado with no money involved? Arenado is owed $69M/3 with $10M paid by COL, so $59M /3 (22, 22 & 15) Yoshida is owed $54M/3- almost the exact same as Arenado. The tax number is: Yoshida: 18-18-18 Arenado: 26.5, 26.5, 30.5 (The difference here is notable to the Sox, esp 2027) Our D would be greatly improved, but we'd be taking on a declining 3Bman. He will be 34 to start 2025 and 36 his last year. He had an OPS+ of 125 from ages 23-30. It was 151 in 2022 at age 31, but then 108 in 2023 and 101, this year. Shocker: although he is a RHB with power, he his .646 vs LHPs in 2024. This was not a fluke, as he hit .665 v LHPs in 2023. Defense 2023-2024 DRS +7 Arenado vs -18 Devers OAA +15 Arenado vs -14 Devers Last 5 years: DRS +45 vs -41 OAA +44 vs -33

Same as anyone: he'll be 31 and wants a 6-7 year deal. They rarely sign over 30 SP'ers to longer term deals. Their longest SP deals now are ... $75M/6 Strider (pre-arb deal) $38M/2 Sale $30M/3 R Lopez (signed at 29-30 yrs old) Before that $20M/1 Morton 110 yrs old $32M/6 Teheran (signed at age 23) I can't remember them signing a big name FA pitcher to a long term deal.

I'm hoping Oregon beats Penn St for selfish reasons. If that happens, I think the seeding would go like this: 1. Oregon 2. Texas (assuming they beat TX A&M) 3. SMU or Boise St 4. Boise St or AZ St/IA St winner (or Clemson/UNLV assuming they upset SMU or Boise St) 5. Notre Dame vs worst big 5 champ 6. Penn St vs Alabama 7. Georgia vs IN 8. Ohio St vs TN 9. Tennessee 10. Indiana 11. Alabama 12. Worst big Conference winner In terms of best match-ups: ND vs IN

Yes, adding one SP'er like Fried, would give us Fried, Houck, Bello, Giolito & Crawford. That's not bad. We'd also have Criswell, Priester, Fitts and Dobbins as AAA depth, and maybe Wink as a spot starter. If we sign Fried and trade for someone like Pablo Lopez, we could improve the pen by moving Crawford there, or include him in that trade or another one that brings us a RHB or good RP+a one year catcher.

One key will be to identify which player to trade, and we better get that right. Trading at peak value is key, as well. Our OF currently as Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Campbell and eventually JH Garcia, Montgomery and maybe Cespedes. Or middle IF has Story, Mayer, Campbell, DHam, Grissom, Romy, Sogard and eventually Arias, Romero and maybe Meidroth or Cespedes. Our corner IF has Devers, Casas and Meidroth. Our catching has Wong and Teel (late '24/early '25) I may be in a distinct minority, but I'd be fine starting the year with a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. Keeping Mayer over Campbell, since he can play SS well makes sense, but I absolutely love Campbell (and Anthony.) Campbell may also play CF or RF. Keeping Teel seems like a no-brainer, since Wong sucks on D. If we have to trade one from Anthony, Campbell and Mayer, I'd go with Mayer and hope Story can stay healthy enough to bridge us to Arias or Romero. In the OF, I'd love to keep Duran and Anthony, and since I'm keeping Campbell, we should be set enough to trade Abreu and or Rafaela. If we sign Soto, that changes everything in the OF. We could go all times best: LF Soto, CF Duran, RF Anthony, or trade Duran or Anthony in a package for an ace, and go with an Abreu-Rafaela platoon in CF-RF. With no Soto, I'd feel comfortable trading Mayer, Abreu and some mid level prospects for the best pitcher we can get.

I'm liking Casas, more and more, despite the injury issues and awful defense. I'd like to see him DH 80% and play 1B 20%. Devers 1B 80% and DH 20%. By DH'ing so much, he may need less days off. This ould mean trading Yoshida or play him in LF (no Soto) or bench him. I'm all for Carson Kelly on a 1 year deal. Casas is one of the few lefty hitters we have that hits lefties well. Career vs R/L OPS .846/.772 Casas .910/.739 Devers .831/.632 Duran (.910/,665 in '24) .842/.514 Abreu .695/.539 DHam (.729/.532 in '24)

Property taxes are 1.14% in BOS vs 1.4% in NYC, but maybe Soto will rent. Cost of living is significantly lower in Boston. One site says NYV is 60% higher. By state: Sales Tax: 6.25% MA and 4% NY Income Tax: MA 5% (increases to 9% on income over $1M) NY 10.9% CNN Money article that lists Tax Dollars state by state. It lists New York as the #1 state for total taxes per $1,000. This is compared to Massachusetts which they had ranked as #40. To be fair, this is because of the low sales and excise tax rankings. When you are just looking at personal income, then New York is number 1 with Massachusetts coming in at number 8.

Okay, that statement did caste doubt about the legitimacy of the 2020 ring. You are right. But to me, this all started with a claim made that the Dodgers are "two steps ahead." I still think they are not. Maybe one step ahead, if you set the time frame at exactly 1 year or 5 years (2020-2024.) It is tainted, IMO, but still legit. The Dodgers are the only team that has 2 rings in 5 years, 6 years or 7 years. One could argue that puts them one step ahead. On spending, maybe 2 or 3 steps ahead of almost every other team. If you go to 8 years, it's 2 for LAD & HOU although one could "taint" the 2017 Astros ring, too. You have to go back to 2013 to add the next 2 ring team. That is a 12 year period: LAD, HOU & BOS. Go to 13 years and add SFG. Go to 15 years and SFG has 3, BOS, HOU & LAD with 2. Go to 18 years: 3 BOS & SFG, 2 HOU & LAD. Go to 21 years: 4 BOS, 3 SFG, 2 STL, HOU, LAD You need to go back 27 years (1998) to get a team to match 4 rings (NYY). 29 years to get a 5 win team (NYY.) Nobody can argue the Yanks or Sox are 2 steps ahead, or even 1. Time frame matters, of course. The Dodger have been way ahead in top money signings over the past few years, and they are one step ahead in rings over the last 1-7 years. I grant them that. They made two of the highest paid contract signings, ever, last winter, while also having the third highest contract (Betts) already on the books. (Freeman was a top 50 signing back in 2022.) They just signed Snell, giving them 2 of the top 4 $/yr and 4+ year deals in MLB history and 4 in the top 20- plus the Yamo signing. Highest value/year all time (more than 3 years) 1. Ohtani $46M LAD 2. Judge $40M 3. deGrom $37M 4. Snell $36.4M LAD 5. Cole $36M 6. Trout $35.5M 7. Strasburg $35M 8. Rendon $35M 9. Lindor $34.1M 10, Correa $33,3M 11. Greinke $32,5M 12. Arenado & Seager $32.5M 14. Machado $31.8M 15. Devers $31.5M 16. Miggy & Price $31M 18. Kershaw $30.7M LAD 19. Betts $30.4M LAD 20. Scherzer, Machado $30M

Excellent point, and this goes to the core position I have held for over 5 decades about the Sox and what made us winners vs losers. For 3 decades, we seemed to always be 1-2 quality pitchers away from winning a ring. 1972, 1975, 1978 and 1986 were key examples, IMO. It wasn't until JH and Theo came along, that this philosophy came into being. Dan D brought us Pedro, but it wasn't until we added Schilling that the first ring came to us. Later, when Pedro was gone, we added Beckett to ensure a ring. Although Lackey was not an ace, I don't think we win in 2013 without him. Sale & Price in 2018 were the difference makers. It's hard as hell for the Sox to win with just one top pitcher. Other teams did it. We did have several years where we had 2 quality SP'ers and did not win a ring, but IMO, we never won a ring with just one. 1972: Siebert 3.80 & Marty Pattin 3.24 (Curtis 3.73 & McGlothen 3.41) was awesome, but that was the year the strike allowed us to miss the pennant by 1/2 game due to the unbalanced schedule the league allowed. 1975: Tiant 4.02, Bill Le 3.95 and Wise 3.95 was a nice 3. We went 7 games. 1986: Clemens was a god at 2.48. Hurst 2.99 and Boyd 3.78 were damn good, too. We went 7 games. 2003: Pedro at 2.22 was godlike, too, but no other SP'er was under 4.09 (Wake) Several seasons between 2005 and 2019 had teams with 2 or more quality SP'ers and we got no ring. It is no guarantee, just as '72, '75, '86 were close calls, but all of our 4 ring seasons, we saw 2 high quality SP'er and either a really good closer or a 3rd quality SP'er, too. The Yanks have known this for many decades.

Exactly, and although I am as high on Anthony as anybody in the world, and I'm not "for" trading him, he could be the best trading chip in MLB, right now for a top SP'er, including guys like Skubal, Skenes, Kirby and Gilbert. (not by himself, but any team would listen, if you opened your offer with Anthony as the headline- maybe Duran, as well.) Both of these, Duranless or Anthonyless OFs still look awesome: LF Soto CF Duran RF Abreu/Rafaela platoon (Campbell?) or LF Soto CF Anthony RF Abreu/Rafaela platoon (Campbell?) Trading for a younger pitcher is safer than signing Burnes or Fried to a 6 or 7 years deal.

I said I think the ring is legit but not as valued as champs from 150+ seasons. What is wrong with that position? What's the beef? Isn't saying the ring is legit, the same position you hold?

I liked Holmes, too. Apparently, he was signed to be given a shot at starting. I'm not sure if that was a major reason for choosing where he signed, but we'd have needed him in the pen. Scott is the only big name RP'er left. Estevez is okay. Maybe yates has another good year left.

Good point. I forgot how young Vladdy is. I do think Casas is a damn good hitter, and Vladdy is no whiz on D, but better than Casas. OPS+ 2022-2024 138 Vladdy 125 Casas OPS+ 2023-2024 141 Vladdy 126 Casas Ages 23-24: 126 Casas (just 745 PAs) 125 Vladdy

LOL, now who is pie-charting something? I'm not sure how much less I value it. I do think it takes 150+ games to get the proper teams identified for the baseball playoffs. 60 falls way short. I do think the Dodgers and Rays were good enough to make the playoffs in 2020, had it been 150+ games, but maybe their seed would have been different, and they'd have played different teams in the playoffs. To me, the 2020 ring counts less than any other season in the modern era. By how much? I don't know or even care. If you put a gun to my head, maybe I'd say about 10-20% less, which isn't a lot. Do you think the batting champs and HR leaders should be fully recognized, too?

I would not count Wilson as a RP'er signing. He's one step ahead of being a minor league depth signing. Our pen was awful over the second half of 2024. Adding Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson does not even equal the loss of Jansen and Martin, IMO. Adding 2 SP'ers would push Crawford to the pen, and I guess we could count Whitlock as a pen addition, too, but someone will get hurt. I'm not sure Scott is still in play, for us, as Chapman and Wilson are both lefties, but I think I'd rather have Fried and Scott than Fried and Nate. Scott will be cheaper, too, and maybe the savings can go towards another pen arm or upgrading what we can spend on a RHB and or catcher. Who is your back-up or starting catcher? Wong & Gasper?

Roki Sasaki will be posted soon. He's only 23 and will be all next season. He did pitch 129 IP at age 20 and 111, this year. He has 2.02 career ERA, which dipped to 2.35 in 2024. His WHIP is a mind-blowing 0.883 and was about 0.770 from 2022-2023. It also dipped, this year (1.036) His career 4.03 K:BB rate is very nice. In 2024, he had a 10.5 K/9 rate and 2.6 BB/9 rate, both worse than 2022 and 2023, but still very nice. This could be a major signing that addresses the here and now, as well as the extended future.