moonslav59

It's "context" to me. Why only bring up losing O'Neill, like he's the only bat we lost from the 2024 team? The others, who totalled more PAs don't matter as much? Did we lose a great defender and baserunner in O'Neill? Granted, there is a drop from O'Neill to Yoshida, especially if Yoshida is in LF, but maybe it's not as great as we think, and we can make that up by doing better than the others who left.

His bat is what it is. As a DH, who cares how bad his D is? How important is baserunning? Yes, his D and running subtract from his overall value, but he a better hitter than half the everyday batters on the opening day 13. If he is forced to play LF, too much, his overall value will take a hit, but his added offense may make up for that, and if we improve 3B defense and or get another bif RHB that forces him to play LF, the gains made there can more than make-up for minor losses on baserunning and a significant loss on LF D.

It's easy to focus on the loss of O'Neill and no added bats, so far, but there is some needed context: 1. We heard over and over how unproductive those 31 HRs were, with just 61 RBIs in 113 games. 2. We lost more PAs from other players that more than cancel out the loss of O'Neill's 473 PAs and 132 OPS+: D Smith 96 OPS+ in 278 PAs, 16 from Dalbec in 93 & 28 from Cooper in 75 (more from Casas) 74 from E Valdez in 223 PAs, 27 from Reyes in 64 & 60 from Westbrook in 48(more from DHam/Romy/Grissom or Campbell call-up) 61 from McGuire in 158 & 75 from Jansen in 96(Naravez) 3. Why should we not expect growth and improvement from our pre-prime and peak prime players, at least when all combined? Pre-Prime: Rafaela, Guerrero & Grissom 24, Crochet, Bello, Casas & Fitts 25, Abreu, Wink & Narvaez 26, Slaten & DHam 27 Peak Prime: Devers, Duran, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, Wong, Criswell, Sandoval & Romy 28, Kelly & Weissert 29, Giolito, Buehler 30, Yoshida 31 Nearing the end of Prime: Story 31 Past Prime but not showing it: Refsnyder 34 Past Prime: Hendriks 35, Chapman 36, Wilson 37 When you look at the 4 players past prime, none have a major role on this team, except 1: we need Chapman or hendriks to be the closer or top set up man, maybe both

They are stingy. They will seek the extra year of control on all of them.

I'm reading projections we sign Bregman, Alonso or Grichuk, or trade for Arenado. We are mentioned as "having interest" in several RP'er. You can't trust all rumors, but I gotta think we end up with something significant. (I'm not sure I'd call Grichuk "significant.") My top choices: 1. Scott 2. Bregman 3. Estevez and a few others like him. No thanks for Alonso.

It's not really because they traded the world to get him, but in doing so, we finally showed someone we want him and think a lot of him. Either we believe in him, or we don't. I fully realize, someone, somehow, somewhere we also "believed in" Yoshida, Story and others. That's reason enough to have serious doubts, but we aren't going to outbid anyone for the next Soto (Vladdy) or Burnes/Fried/Yamo. THis is it. I don't see a viable plan B for these cheapskates. We aren't talking Price money adjusted for inflation. We aren't talking a 30-31 year old pitcher demanding 7+ years. Yes, we are talking about a guy with very limited proof of greatness or durability, but at his age, I'm liking this risk more than others I have seen. Yamo was a little younger and had no injury history, but zero ML success. Sometimes you just roll the dice on a kid with talent. To me, this is that time- more so out of our lack of options and a window that should be opening wide, starting now.

Top Returning Sox wRC+ 2023-2024 (200+ PAs) 129 Devers 126 Duran 126 Casas (our line-up cannot afford to lose him) 117 Abreu (mostly vs RHPs) 114 Refsnyder (mostly v LHPs) 112 Yoshida 97 Romy (mostly vs LHPs) 95 Wong (not bad for a catcher) 85 DHam 79 Rafaela 68 Story Splits vs RHPs: 142 Devers, 139 Abreu, 130 Abreu, 129 Casas, 121 Yoshida 94 Wong, 92 DHam, 85 Rafaela, 77 Refsnyder, 74 Story, 28 Romy vs LHPs: 147 Refsnyder, 142 Romy, 117 Casas, 102 Devers 98 Wong, 88 Duran, 84 Yoshida, 62 Rafaela, 46 Story, 45 DHam, 41 Abreu

It comes down to who is he playing instead of. Compare their offense, defense and whatever else they do better or worse, but also the related positional moves that created the choice to decide on Yoshida (and dont forget Refsnyder) in LF. If we get Bregman to play 3B and greatly improve our 3B defense, and push Devers to 1B/DH and Casas to part time DH, then I can stomach Yoshida downgrading the LF defense. He hist better than Rafaela. He hist better than Ref v RHPs and Abreu vs LHPs, so his offense looks better than someone who sits. His defense will always be worse, but by how much, and how much better is is offense. (We can also bring in a defensive replacement, late in some games. In a sense, adding Bregma would replace Rafaela's bat vs RHPs and Abreus vs LHPs. Another way to see it is, he replaces O'Neill's bat and Devers glove at 3B. Better RH'd hitting. Better 3B defense. Maybe better 1B defense, if Devers ends up better than Casas. More rest for Devers and Casas as they DH 80 times a year. Worse LF defense. (Yoshida sucks at baserunning as a DH as much as a LF'er. He is going to be in the line-up... somewhere.)

Until Anthony is called up and shows he can play FT, out OF set-up was probably going to look like ths, until Yoshida got consideration: LF: Duran v R/ Ref v L CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L RF: Abreu v R/ Rafaela v L If Yoshida plays LF vs some RHPs, he will bat over Rafaela and likely be better on O. Our LF defense will suffer, while Duran in CF over Rafaela is not a big loss. Tha advantage might come from who is playing 3B- on D, especially, but also what sort of offense.

No. I'm setting the over/under at 100. I'd probably take the over on that.

100

I think he might take a $210M/8, which starts in 2025, with an opt out after 2029 (after 5 years with Sox) as the lowest he'd go: $8M 2025 $17M 2026 ($25M for 1 arbs yrs) $20M 2026 $25M 2027 $25M 2028 $25M 2029 (can opt out after $120M/5 with $90M/3 still on the table at $30M a year.)

The Sox love one year deals, and getting comp picks. They may think Campbell is ready to play 3B in 2026.

I can see this point, and I actually think $170M/6 is an underbid. I would not take it, if I was Crochet, unless there was an opt out after the 2027 or 2028 season.

Years of team control remaining and age are huge factors in figuring out a player's worth. Injury history is big, too. How much success matters most of all. These are 4 of the major factors, and I'm not sure anyone else matched even 3 of the four, closely with Crochet. This is a unique situation. We got a very skilled pitcher with a proven, but very short, stint of success, and a history of injury. The biggest plus about getting him vs 30-31 year old FA is his age. For that, we paid way less money but gave up 3 of our top 8 prospects. We obviously felt like he was good enough to be our #1-2 SP'er. He becomes a FA at age 26 and turns 27 (June) that first year beyond our control. That is a great age to be entering the free market. Sure, how well he does over the next 2 years could place him in a range of an AAV of $5M to $45M and one year to 8-9 years, maybe even 10 years. In some ways, it is a big stab in the dark, but I'd rather hitch my wagon to a 26 year old FA to 6 years than a 30-31 year old one to 6-8 years. I could be terribly wrong, and we bash the trade and extension for years to come, but we got Price wrong, too, and just about nobody could have been viewed as a surer bet than he was, back then. Roll the dice and get it done, ASAP!

Maybe Bregman takes a one year deal to try and reset his value. A park like Fenway might make coming here a big advantage.

Crochet is 25. If the extension begins in 2025, he'll have 2 arb years built in at ages 26-26 and 26-27, as his BD is in June. His age makes it so no real comp is out there.

100%. Get it done on the two.

Agree. Just gibe him the $500K more.

An Abreu-Rafaela RF platoon looks great, to me. A more complex rotation like this works, too, if Yoshi is the FT DH: LH: Duran v R/ Ref v L CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L RF: Abrey v R/ Rafaela v L We could flip between the two platoons, giving ref some time at DH, when he's not in LF. REF needs to start every game vs LHPs. He is clearly our best bat vs LHPs.

If he plays LF, because we upgraded 3B defense and kept Devers and Casas in the lineup as a 1B/DH time share setup, I'd be okay with the downgrade in LF defense. Yoshi and ref would be essentially replacing O'Neill's playing time in the OF- no great glove, there. Duran would play CF (Rafaela, when he rests,) and an Abreu-Rafaela RF would be a great defensive set-up for CF and RF/

Actually, $170M/6 is $28.3M or about 33rd highest, but if we link it to buying out his arb years, it would be more like $190M/8 or $23.8M AAV- 80th highest in MLB history.

The plan might be Campbell, plus those others returning to the line-up (Story, Grissom and more from Ref.) Casas has been one of our best LHBs vs LHPs, so maybe he helps, too, and word is that Anthony has decent splits, too, as a LHB. Wong has had reverse splits, so maybe he flips that, this year. These guys have to improve vs LHPs, or they should never start vs them: Career .514 Abreu .539 DHam We did trade E Valdez (.327 v LHPs) Romy is .802 vs LHPs and Grissom is .727 vs LHPs. Story is at .963, but that was mostly from long ago.

Yes, that's right, he starts '29 at '29, but turns 30. I'd still push hard for one more year (opt out at age 31.)

Even if we decide to stay under the tax line 1, we have about $31M to spend, according to cots. Scott might cost $16 x 5 or $17M x 4. Bregman's price is hard to project, but maybe it's $27M x 7 or $25M x 8. Maybe the cost drops, if this goes on much longer. We could get both and easily stay below the second line, but not the first. Scott & Grichuk, yes. Bregman and trade for a cheap RP'er, yes. Word is now out that Cora is okay with Yoshida playing some OF. We could sign Bregman and trade Abreu for a real good RP'er and go like this: 1. L Duran CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas DH/1B 4. L Devers 1B/DH 5. R Story SS 6. L Yoshida- R Refsnyder LF 7. R Campbell 2B 8. L Anthony RF 9. Wong C Bench: Rafaela, Narvaez, Yoshi/Ref, DHam/Grissom/Romy The pen would add a strong piece from the Abreu trade.