moonslav59

I'm thinking STL is so desperate to dump Arenado, maybe we end up getting him, and we end up getting a second piece to sweeten the deal. (Helsley, Herrera or Contreras?) Or, we just get them to pay a big chunk or take back Yoshida, and we pay some, but not as much as we would trading him by himself. I have no idea who STL wants, and I'm sure they don't want Yoshida. Getting someone like Helsley, Herrera or Contreras won't be cheap. Contreras makes $18M x 3 (same as Yoshida,) so maybe Arenado & Contreras for Yoshida, Fitts, Cespedes & Valera. Maybe, no money changes hands, so basically Yoshida cancels Contreras, but maybe STL would still pay some. I'm not a fan of Arenado, but dumping Yoshida and getting Contreras, Herrera or Helsley could be a difference maker, and our D would improve.

That has been the story since letting Kimbrel and Kelly go after 2018, and doing nothing to replace them. They also came close to trading Betts during 2019, and it's not changed since then. Counting 2025, we are now 7 years running on this top priority.

Many viewed Houck as the 6th starter, until Gio went down. Criswell might have been viewed as the 4th starter in AAA by soxprospects.com, behind Gambrell, Van Belle and Alexander. I do think our depth for the rotation is one of our pluses. First, we may start with a 6 man rotation, and then we have Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and Fulmer. That's 11 guys with some promise. Maybe we can use some of them to beef up the pen.

I'm not asking anyone to go back and Monday morning QB this thing, but just think about all the players who were FAs, and who the Sox ended up identifying and going after strong enough to be the highest bidder or the team the FA chose to sign with. We signed Price to a huge deal in 2016 and then JD to $110M/5 in 2018, then the only big deal guy we got was Story and the next might be Bregman. (Count Nate as a FS, if you must, but he was at half the money Story got, anyway.) 7 winters: Story and maybe Bregman. Those are the two "guys" we chose to target and make it happen. This is not about sour grapes on Story. I saw the value in the signing, but still, that's it? Just one guy and that "guy" is Story, and now the next one might be "Bregman?" I get that part of it is just being too cheap to pay more and get Semien or the like, instead of Story or someone like Fried, Burnes or FAs from the last few years vs Bregman. Another part is just getting the mid and lower mid range signings wrong way more than right, and that is a bit of hindsight judging, but also you get what you pay for when you go for bargain deals.

It was Criswell.

So, it's more about the 4 years than the age, as mentioned, before. Scott will be younger at the end of year 4 than Jansen and Martin were, when they started their duo two year deals.

No, I say he's not the kind of guy I think we should have spent large & long on. The Sox might very well do it. They did on Story, too. This is not about hindsight evaluations, but these are the only FA signings, after JD over $39M: ***$140 Story $68M Nate (nore like an extension) ***$90M Yoshida If you are going to spend like this, would you pick these 2*** over a 7 year period? Or make Bregman #3?

You think otherwise? It looks like another "play if halfway" or try and give the perception we are trying to compete, while falling short of being a true competitor. My point about Grichuk and then trading Abreu to fill another need was not a tank move, unless he was traded for prospects, which I did give as one of 3 options. (We could also flip the prospects from Abreu for a catcher or RP'er) I'm not for tanking, this year. My position has been clear as day: The window should begin in 2025. We should not wait until even 2026.

I mentioned a few in the Story-Bregman range, which are not "cheap" deals. Maybe the Yoshida deal can be included and JD, if you go back to 2018. Just 4 FA deals over $40M since Price: $140M Story, $110M JD, $90M Yoshida & $68M Nate (more like an extension) It's 3 after JD and two, if you don't count Nate. It's one, if you set the filter over $90M. This is clear evidence of going cheap, but it also highlights what a bold move it would be to break protocol for a guy like Bregman. Again, I ask "Why Bregman?"

I also think that we could do and could have done better with the mid range deal of Story ($140M/6) or whatever Bregman gets ($85M/3 to $190M/6ish) I just don't see these two guys as the "ones we should have targeted" to spend the most money on since Price's contract in 2016. That's not to say the Story signing had no logic to it, or that a Bregman signing wouldn't help us, now. I just think these two would not be who I pick as "the guys."

I'm surprised Dubon still has one arb year left. That trade seems so long ago,

Yes, and that was the largest FA signing in 8 winters. It was just short of the total money given to Sale over 5 years, as an extension. If you look at this 7 year period (JD signed for $110M/5 in '18) and end up saying the two largest FA deals went to Story and Bregman, I think it would be a head-scratcher. One part being, "Is that the highest we paid?" and the other being, "Why those two?" The next tier is significantly lower: $90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee) $68M/4 Nate (more like an extension, to me) Then another big drop to the next tier: $39/2 Giolito, $36M/2 Jansen Here are some hindsight deals signed since 2019: $118/5 Wheeler '20 $175/7 Semien '22 (pretty close AAV to Story) $88M/5 Willson Contreras $79M/4 Schwarber '22 (less than Yoshida) $72M/4 T Scott '25 $64M/3 Kikuchi '25 $54M/3 Chapman (much cheaper than Bregman will be.) $53M/4 Imanaga $45M/3 Seth Lugo $38M/3 Holmes, $22M/2 Minter, $12M/2 d'Arnaud or C Kelly

Great article. I loved it. I sure hope he improves his defense. He looked like he got worse on D, not better, in 2024. I think Narvaez may play more than some think, due to his plus D and a little power. I see Sabol as Gasper-like.

Buehler's best year was the best of them all. Best fWAR seasons since 2017 in MLB by rank: 28. Buehler 5.6 in '21 44. Giolito 5.2 in '19 48. Buehler 5.1 in '19 64. Crochet 4.7 in '24 95. Giolito 4.1 in '21 125. Houck 3.9 in '24 145. Sandoval 3.7 in '22 222. Buehler 3.1 in '18 We have 5 SP'ers who have had a 3.1 or better fWAR season. Buehler 3 times and Gio twice. (Gio might have been 3 times, if you project 2020 to a full season.) Other good seasons 2.0 Giolito '20 (short season) 2.4 Crawford '23 2.3 Sandoval '23, Houck in '21 2.0 Bello '24, We have 7 SP'ers who have had a 2.0 or better fWAR season since 2021, or the last 4 seasons. None are post prime. None are dealing with a current injury, except Sandoval. I went back 8 years, since none of our guys are past prime enough to think it impossible to repeat a season completed at a younger age. (Past injury might have made it near impossible to do so.)

Exactly, there are so many factors to be considered. My guess is they will put Soto 28-35 and other IFA after 35th.

My point is, they should have targeted someone better than him over the last 9 winters, and then did what it took to get him. Signing Bregman reeks of just "settling" on the best of the leftovers just because he'd help the team, and not out of some deep-rooted analysis and vetting. I felt the same way about Story. He was a knee-jerk reaction signing, meant to appease the fans, and they felt his price had dropped to a manageable amount, which was less than what they knew ZBogey would get. The Yoshida signing was not on the level of Story and Bregman, and far from the Price level, but I do think they really spent time evaluating him, singling him out as the guy they wanted (rightly or wrongly) and then they went and got "their man." I don't see Bregman as "their man." Sure, he checks off two boxes, assuming they play him at 3B, and he'd help the team with a new RHB added to the line-up, but he is not the guy they wanted, all along. Not even close.

When you include the tax, the amount they end up paying is so absurdly higher than the next bidder.

Bregman should not be the largest FA signing since Price, in 2016.

Yes, I meant to write "additions," and I missed some, of course. Sandoval was a real good pitcher and is not old. I had to look it up to confirm he will still be just 28, through the season. I've mentioned I'm sick and tired of these deals, and I'd rather we spent on Scott than Sandoval, but Patrick did have a 122 ERA+ from 2021-2023 with an FIP of 3,72, not bad for a guy with a 4.0 BB/9. As a reference, here are some other ERA+/FIP over their last 3 years: 125/2.90 Crochet 121/3.79 Buehler 117/3.66 Houck 109/3.71 Whitlock 99/4.14 Bello 97/4.31 Crawford 96/4.39 Giolito

Ocean view, in Arizona.

Maybe 25th to 30th would have been better for Soto, but those guys are all close, anyway. Maybe, I fell for the talk on the podcast, and they did say they liked him more than Justin Gonzalez, last winter.

Look for Arias to join the list, at some point, with Cespedes, Perales and Bleis having a shot at it.

If MLB and the union were smart... LOL... they'd agree to a big raise for min wage (like $1.5M '27> $1.75M '28> $2.0M '29> $2.25M '30> $2.5M '31) Expand ML roster to 27 and 40 man roster to 42. Go to 43 in man roster in '29 and 44 man in '31. Shorten the years before arb by 1, but add an arb year. Establish a minimum team salary budget: $85M '27, $95M '28, $105M in '29, $110M in '30 & $120M in '31 These would be huge giveaways to the majority of MLB players and future players. Now, the givebacks by the players. Move towards a hard cap, but include some sort of grandfather clause for players already under contract. Keep the CBT for 2 more years, but with deferrals counted and a tax rate at 50% year 1, 100% year 2 , 150% year 3 and continue up... 2027 CBT line $250M 2028: $265M 2029: $280M 2030: Hard Cap begins at $290M, then $3000M in 2031 (These seem like high numbers, but with min wage and roster sizes increasing it is needed.) Just a rough outline of what direction I think MLB needs to go. MLB has to give something to the players for accepting a hard cap, and I think the lower and mid-range players would jump at the changes that would greatly up their pay while restricting the mega deals.

With 100% tax on $250M or so, right?