moonslav59

I think STL will want too much for 1 year of Helsley, and why should we overpay for 1 year? If he's an add-on to lower the money included on Arenado, okay, but what are you thinking? Romero and Fitts for Helsley & Arenado & $10M x 2 yrs and $5M year 3? I might do Yoshida + $5M x 3 years, Arias and Fitts for Helsley & Arenado

He pitched better than several pitchers who have already signed, using a 1, 2 or 3 year sample size. I'd rather have him starting over Gio and Crawford, and he may do better than Bello in 2025, but there is no money left over at his price.

To me, Mayer seems like more than enough, if not too much, but Miller is proven and fills a great need on our roster. Bumping every other RP'er down on the high leverage totem pole would improve more than just the closer role.

Casas seems a bit fragile, so maybe a 1B-DH share between Casas and Devers would help both stay healthier, fresher and play 160-162 games. We need both bats, everyday. (Both have decent splits.)

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4207931/2023/02/15/rafael-devers-improving-defense/

Casas seems to be getting worse, and he has had years to learn the position and improve. Thirdbasemen often move to 1B rather seamlessly. The reason I think Devers would be better, or at least the same, after a few weeks, is that his main issue at 3B is his inaccurate arm, but his glove, quickness or range. Also, "the few weeks" was not including practice and assuming ST'ing games before the season begins. (Note: we moved Bogey from SS to 3B after just 10games in the minors at 3B.) This is not about thinking Devers will be a plus on D, in a short time. The bar set by Casas is just be the 27th to 29th best defender at 1B, and we'd improve. CASAS SUCKS ON D! The psyche part was just put out there, because some, here have mentioned his has a fragile ego and does not want to move off 3B. I don't agree with the "ego" thing, but some players really feel like they are more a part of the game, playing a position and not sitting on the bench during the opps ABs. I'd let them share 1B/DH, until one shws they are better than the other.

I also do not see this as "trading away the future," since Miller's 4 years of service remaining is about what you get from a rising prospect, anyway. They often take 1-2 years to adjust and give 4 productive seasons. I might even give Mayer & one or two from Kelly, Penrod, Bernardino or non-40 man Mata or for Miller.

I'm thinking Devers is probably better on D at 1B than Casas, or would be after a few weeks. Maybe they share 1B/DH duty and will never need a day off. Devers might enjoy playing in the field, more than D'ing, so maybe that could help his psyche.

We need to use the words "less" and "fewer" less often.

Maybe not. Miller has 4 years of control, and this one is pre-arb.

I'd say Devers/Casas shaare DH/1B duties, with Yoshida/Ref DH'ing on off days and platooning LF when not riding the bench. Duran plays CF (LF, when Yoshida/Ref are benched) and Abreu-Rafaela platoon RF w Rafaela playing some CF, 2B and maybe SS when not in RF. Maybe we try even harder to dump Yoshida, if we sign Bregman.

We ended up getting 2 comp picks for losing Wagner. Kolbrin Vitek Anthony Ranaudo (Later, we traded Ranaudo for Robbie Ross, who had a couple okay/decent seasons for us.)

At this point, Bregman is the only difference maker out there. We can't afford another top prospect(s) for an impact player. Bregman checks two boxes (RHB and plus D at 3B.) Maybe offer him a way higher AAV on a shorter deal, or maybe give an opt out after 1 or 2 years.

Big If.

True. I also think the strength and weakness of the bottom of the 40 plays into these chocies, too. Our last few DFA'd players ended up being traded. I think our 40 man roster is stringer at the bottom, than previous, recent seasons. As of now, here is how I see our most likely to DFA.trade list: Blake Sabol Bernardino, Zach Penrod, Justin Wilson (will get a look-see, first) Murphy can be added to the 60 Day IL on opening day, otherwise, he might make the list. Sandoval will be added day one, and that will make room for someone. Nick Sogard (We are very light on 40 man roster depth with everyday players, but having Campbell, Anthony and Mayer, "at the ready" to be added makes the situation not so urgent.)

Paul Sewald to Guardians for $7M/1.

He was the "borderline" Rule 5 guy, and I remember we did not see eye-to-eye on the choice to protect him. I'm glad we did, but certainly there is a chance he ends up not making it. I think it came down to the fear that a team like PIT, MIA or OAK might have selected him, based on his upside promise, only and not about any 2025 hopes.

Sounds about right. If a DHam-Romy/Grissom platoon is working well in ST'ing and into 2025, I wonder if they purposely delay Campbell's call-up, so he gains a year of control, while building up the trade value of our 2Bmen. I think Anthony might have an easier route to being the first call-up, despite our OF being viewed as a strength. We lost O'Neill. Abreu has horrific splits. Rafaela has not shown he can hit lefties or righties. Ref and Yoshida have clear defensive liabilities. Which seems like the better alignment? LF Anthony, CF Duran, RF Abreu-Rafaela LF Duran, CF Anthony-Rafaela, RF Abreu-Anthony (depending on L-R platoon bt Abreu-Rafaela) LF Anthony-Duran, Duran-Rafaela, Abreu-Anthony (see A-R platoon)

Probably some of our promising second tier prospects will not shine in 2025, but I think we have a lot of prospects poised for a jump. We also might see some "third tier" prospects jump up a tier. (The line between 2nd and third is blurry, for sure.) To me, Perales just needs to be healthy to move into the top 100. Arias, Cespedes and Bleis are probably the most recognizable names of prospects poised to jump up a tier, but I also like the Garcia brothers, Romero, Early, Valera and maybe Tolle and Sandlin. While Dobbins is ranked 8th, right now, I do not see the upside there for a jump into the top 100. Others I am watching, closely: Cason, Wehunt, Reyes, Monegro, Soto and Delzine. I did not mention highly ranked 9-Fitts, 17-Guerrero, 23 Paez, 24-Mullins and others. (Slaten, DHam & Priester is no longer prospects. Abreu & Rafaela graduated in early '24.)

soxprospects.com does not post their past rankings beyond the top 30 range. While D Reyes and Ju Gonzales did make the top 30, it was in NOV 2024, after they had played a season in the minors. I don't see any placed in the top 30 in their spring rankings, and I can't see the 31-40 range, anywhere. I'm not saying you are wrong. You know more about our farm than I do, but which IFA prospects were ranked top 40 before playing a game in the system? (They only list the top 20 from 2021 and earlier.) Devers made it to #18 a year after being signed. Espinoza made it to #11 a year after he was signed. Am I missing someone? I'm just going by what I heard on the podcast and how they say the Sox are super high on this year's signee group, despite no mega bonuses handed out.

He had just 114 ABs in AA, but the concern is legit. I'm higher on him, than most, but he is not going to be a force on the big club for 2025, for sure. His brother might have more promise (not for 2025.)

Second best as a percentage. (12%) I'd love to think we are not done, but I'm close to giving up hope. There is still Bregman. Maybe we could add Estevez & Grichuk or make one more trade for a catcher or solid pen arm, but I think we'll wait on that, until we get a better read on our top prospects and how some others look to start the season. Some areas to watch: Catcher & catcher defense: Has Wong improved? Can Narvaez hit well enough to stick on the 26? 2B: A DHam-Romy platoon shows a lot of promise, based on 2024 splits and defense, but Grissom is still trying to prove 2023-2024 was the outlier and not his first 1-2 seasons. Campbell could storm the position and pull a Pedey... or not. SS: Story's health remains a years long question that has rarely been answered in the positive. RHB: Will Rafaela play RF v LHP, or will we give Abreu a chance to play FT. As of now, I think Ref plays LF and Duran CF vs LHPs, but Ref could platoon at DH w Yoshida. Closer: Will Chapman or Hendriks win the position and save 85-90% of games? Can Slaten or Whitlock step in, if they don't? (Will it be too late, even if they can and do?) Corner IF defense: Is there any hope Casas can improve his 1B defense? Devers has showed he can go extended periods of time playing okay or near average defense at 3B, but can he do it for a full season? To me, the rest of the team looks pretty solid and has decent depth (C and 3B not so much depth.)

I agree that injuries or the lack of them can and will be the difference-maker, as with many other teams. As of now, we will be entering the season with just 2 guys that will likely be placed on the 60 Day IL on opening day: Sandoval & Murphy. Whitlock might begin the season on the 10 day IL and may take a few weeks to join the big club, but there is a chance he starts the season on the 26. Gio is saying he will be ready, but maybe he has a setback. We can argue all day long about which players are injury prone and what sort of chances they have at staying healthy for 90-95% of the season, but these names jump out: Story, Casas, Buehler, Hendriks and Whitlock. (Gio & Sandoval are dealing with a recent injury but don't have long histories of injuries.) I'm not so sure our complete roster looks anymore susceptible to injuries than the norm, but staying as healthy as the norm or better would put us in the 85-90 win range, IMO. Much better than the norm might get us to 91-94 wins. I've mentioned this before, and I realize many other of the top contending teams have a lor of young talent who still have not reached peak prime, but I see a lot of room for age/experience- related improvement on this team. The whole roster and beyond is full of pre-prime, prime, peak prime and not-yet-out of prime players. It's easier to just list the ones that are past prime, and note how few of them are being counted on to fill a major role on the 2025 team, except as a closer: 36: Chapman 35: Hendriks 33: Refsnyder (short-side platoon) & Bernardino 32: Story (turns 33 after the season) Still in "Prime:" Yoshida (turns 32 in July) and Giolito & Buehler (both turn 31 in July)

Indeed. Guys like him are everywhere, and there is a good chance he gets DFA'd, this year. I can see a change in the focus on identifying better young pitchers, or one with higher upside, better focus on developing them by setting tangible objectives for them to reach, and by making several trades of everyday players and unneeded pitchers for pitching at all levels. There will be swings and misses, for sure, but I applaud the effort made by Brez & Co, to remake the whole system's focus on pitching. Brez has been the CBO for about 15 months, and these are just some of the pitchers added to the roster: Crochet, Buehler, Slaten, Giolito, Criswell, Sandoval, Chapman, Hendriks, Wilson Fitts, Priester, Sandlin, D Reyes, Weissert, Wehunt, Tolle, Delzine, Cordero, Neely, Clarke, Cason, Tygart Fajardo, Judice, Aita, Brito, J Moran, H Harris, A Adams, J Adames, I Campbell N Davis, R Stock, E Rivera, Kirwin, Booser, Shugart, The more forgettable: Paxton, Hill, Luis Garcia, L Sims, Joely, Chase Anderson, B Keller, B Horn, Uwasawa, Jaques, Y Ramirez, Wingenter and others

Exactly. It's all about giving fans the perspective that we MIGHT have a chance at sneaking into some sort of magical season ending. I do think they did a better job, this winter at actually getting us closer, but they always come up short of doing what it takes to get us over the hump.