moonslav59

I still think the uncertainty over COVID lowered the price some.

My list might look like: 1. Campbell 2. Anthony 3. Mayer 4. Arias 5. Perales 6. Valera 7. Cespedes 8. Romero 9. Early 10. Jh Garcia 11. Fitts 12. Sandlin 13. Tolle 14. Soto 15. Delzine 16. Ju Gonzales 17. D Reyes 18. Paez 19. Narvaez 20. Clarke/Dobbins

There were some real movers in the new soxprospects,com rankings: Since we traded #4 Teel, #5 Montgomery and #8 Meidroth, moving up 2-3 slots for most should be viewed as attrition. Romero #16>6 Valera #23>7 Sandlin #14>8 Early #17>10 Bleis fell from #9 to #15 (but counting attrition, it was worse than that.) Paez 28 >16 S Soto NR > 17 Clarke NR >18 Ju Gonzalez 30 >19 Narvaez NR >20 D Reyes 27>21 S Delzine NR>29 Jo Garcia fell from #19>30th. Not sure why they kept Castro in the top 30 at #25. #18 Wikelman &, #25 E R-C were traded away. Some gutsy calls, but I like most of them. I'd have Castro out of the top 40. I would not have dropped Jo Garcia so much. 7 of the top 13 are pitchers, but just 1 in the top 6. 13 of the top 24 are pitchers, as well as 17 of the top 31.

Not that it matters, but Yoshida is even harder to trade. Story is owed $77.5M/3 ($23.3 Tax hit) Nobody will pay that. I keep looking at Seam Murphy, who is owed $60M/4 ($12.2M Tax) Of course, ATL would not do this deal, 1 for one, but what if we gave them Wong & Bleis and maybe some cash?

I could see Story or Mayer at 3B. I'm thinking he might have a huge 2025 season and get the same or better offer that DET gave him, and he'll pounce.

It looks that way. And to think a week ago, he was just a "suspect."

I think we had pretty good depth, last year, and in some way, they kept us in it longer than the previous 2 seasons. Even after the Gio injury, there was still talk about Houck or Crawford being in the rotation. Criswell, ended up putting up better numbers than most of our initial, all healthy starting 5, and we barely heard of him. He got his shot after Whitlock was lost for the season. While deciding who was "pen depth" to start the season might be impossible to determine, Slaten was not supposed to pitch that many high leverage innings. These were our top high leverage pitchers by PA, among nonstarters. How many were supposed to be ranked this highly in PAs against, and some did pretty well: 123 Jansen, 79 Bernardino, 75 Kelly & Martin, 69 Weissert, 63 Slaten On the offensive side, we lost Story for almost the whole year, and ended up using Rafaela at SS more than anyone else. He actually did better than past subs, need I mention Kike? There was a psoter wondering why we ended up needing to see Abreu "kicking the ball around RF." That "depth" turned into a gold mine. Refsnyder was money. It took DHam a second call-up to find a groove, but he and Romy stabilized 2B, and they were maybe the 4th and 5th stringers after EValdez, Grissom & Reyes on the 2B winter depth chart. That being said, our depth is better this year, especially with the pitching. I'm curious to see how many IP we see from any pitcher not in our system on March 20th, 2024. Last year, we saw this.... (IP) 52 Chase Anderson 25 Brad Keller 18 Bailey Horn, 15 Luis Garcia, 14 Lucas Sims 11 Paxton, 5 Priester and 1-4 IP by some others Having the 3 top prospects improved our depth, a lot, some even beyond the 40. Adding so many pitchers over last season and this winter, as well as some returning pitchers from injury in '24 gives us some great depth, and we've already seen Newcomb jump the depth charts to land a rotation slot.

Yes, I realized my folly. 3 appearances in 7 games might look close to every other day, but 1, 4 and 7 is every 3 days.

The pendulum swung so far from Ben to DD to Bloom. It's not just money spent, although Ben spent a lot, but major trades and the whole over 30 pitcher theme change. I thought Bloom got a bad rap for many things that were not really his fault, and consideration should be given to what should have been expected when signing $10M/1 contracts and not much more. However, he did fail to deliver on somethings I think he was signed to do; namely continue finding gems in the rough, like Rays continuously did for the years he was there. He found a few , like Whitlock, Pivetta, Wacha, Renfroe, Duvall, Abreu and others, but he missed the boat on too many. As I pointed out, what are the expectations on $10M/1 pitchers, or less? It's not much, but he swung and missed, badly on almost all his biggest contracts: $140M/6 Story and about $100M/5 on Yoshida, counting the fees. Then, $10M/1 on Kluber & Richards. The Barnes extension. He did well with Jansen, Martin and Wacha. That's not a good rate. What he did very well was draft and some IFA signings, but he had higher draft picks than Ben & DD had on a consistent basis. To me, that was his number one task, and it looks like he did pretty well, but that is still TBD. Also, not trading guys like Houck, Bello, Crawford, Duran and others might be an overlooked plus. In general, he gets a speculative A to B+ on farm building, but a solid D on "staying competitive along the way. 2021 was special, but 3 last places has to bring this to a D+, at most. Does that mean he gets a C. overall? That depends on one's perspective and ideas of what the goals should have been, but maybe not what the actually were, behind closed doors.

True, even "every other game" would be an overstatement. Good point. He has pitched 3 games out of the first 7, but that is misleading, because it will likely be 3 in the first 9 or 10 days. Let's say, for argument's sake, he goes 2 every 3 games, that would be about 110 IP. It would also be 54 games in 186 days or about a appearance very 3.4 days, which about what he has done, so far. To me, 90-100 IP like this would be HUGE! Even 70-80.

Can Whitlock keep pitching 2 IP, every other day? That could come to over 160 IP.

Having Mayer makes me less nervous. We also have Rafaela, who can play SS, and we could call up Anthony.

It would take a chunk of money to get ATL to listen. Getting Murphy back would be great, but that seems like a pipe dream. The worry would happen, if Mayer gets hurt, but I suppose we could call up Anthony and then play Rafaela at SS, again. Mayer replacing Bregman at 3B, after 2025 looks like the best shot for Mayer, barring an injury

I could go tiny sample size, like some do: 6Ks in 4IP, today. All is fine! 🤪

We might see Perales, some.

How quickly the moods can shift.

Gotta hold on, here.

ROY?

I agree with this. Last spring, based on Houcks numbers after 50-75 pitches, I was arguing he should be in the pen. Now, I agree, he should be a starter. I hope he finds the groove and is better conditioned to go 180 IP. I think he can do better than 4.23. I'd project closer to 4.00 than 4.25, and might bet on closer to 3.75 than 4.25.

No excuse is needed for such a tiny sample size.

Yes, his previous IP high was 119 IP back in 2018 in the minors. He never reached the conditioning of 170-180 IP, before, and maybe was not ready in 2024 for that much. I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm just saying, we cannot be certain his late season decline was due to not being conditioned to pitch that much. It looks like it was a factor, to me, but he has dealt with injuries and back issues, so maybe it was that, as well.

I can see why you left off the first 16 starts of his career ('20-'21,) since it does not fit your narrative, but you make a good point. I would argue some of those years he was being jerked back and forth and or was recovering from some minor or major injury. While the 4.23 ERA is higher than all but the 2023 sample size, it is pretty close to who he has been as a starter since 2022. That is significant. I would not be surprised if he ends up at 4.25-4.50 in 2025, but I think he pitches better than those numbers, when healthy. Just my opinion. His career numbers matter, too.

I do think he started wearing down, but I'm not sure that was the whole issue. Houck has been around a long time. He's been moved from pen to rotation and has had several different injuries, including major back issues. The guy has some nasty stuff, when healthy. He joined professional ball in 2017 and pitched 119 innings in 2018 at age 22. He never reached that amount again, until 2024. From 23-24, he was only used as a SP'er. He was 26-27 for those years. He missed some time in '23 and had some pretty bad numbers, but he still managed a 3.83 ERA over those two years, combined, thanks mostly to his half season start to 2024. I get that. If you combine 2023 with the second half od 2024, he is certainly a mid-rotation guy, by the numbers. Even if you throw out 2023, his second half 2024 is mid-rotation material. I agree. I think he can be and is better than that, but that assume good health. I think he should be 3.50 to 3.90 for the next 2-3 years of his peak prime years. To me, that is #2 material and maybe #1 for 10-15 teams.

But, it didn't "dip back" to his previous level, which was when he was pre-prime and being moved all over the place while dealing with several injuries, over the years. It dipped below his previous and career numbers as a SP'er. Career: 3.72 ERA with a .657 OPS Against shows some pretty good stuff- maybe better than mid rotation. Plus, he had awful defense behind him for many years, and now, he is in peak prime years.

I'm not sure we can use Houck's previous numbers as a SP'er as a major factor in projecting what he can and will do going forward. He seems to have much better stuff than some of his numbers showed. He was jerked between the pen and rotation, dealt with multiple injuries and was rather inconsistent as a starter. In his first 41 GS (up to 2022) he pitched just under 200 IP- not really a telling sample size. 93 ERA-, 4.17 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, 3.99 SIERA, 1.25 WHIP 23-24: 51 GS and 285 IP 87 ERA-, 3.83 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, 3.96 SIERA, 1.23 WHIP What makes you think 4.23 is more like who he is?