moonslav59

Nobody wants Yoshida in the OF, but LF in Fenway has parked many an awful defender, although most hit way better than Yoshi has, thus far. A Yoshi-Ref platoon in LF would be a way better hitters than Rafaela, but the D would be way, way worse. With Anthony pounding on the OF door, adding Yoshi-Ref to the OF seems like a real bad idea, but maybe start the year like that, and see what happens. If he hits well, his trade value rises.

He'd probably get about $21M/3 as a FA, so we could eat all but that and maybe send him somewhere. Maybe SEA takes him and $10M in '26 & '27 for Haniger ($14.2M x 1) or Garver ($12M x1). Both are RHBs with a chance for a resurgence in '25. Garver is not good on D, as a catcher, but he could act as our 3rd C, and allow for multiple PH for ur catchers in a game. Haniger is not good on D in RF, but he can't be much worse than Ref. (Ref hits LHPs better.) I doubt LAA wants Yoshi and cash for Soler ($12.1M x 2) SFG? Robbie Ray ($23M x 2) straight up?

The Bregman signing has perked up my optimism for sure, and I don't want to burst anyone's bubble. The guy has a 1.250 OPS at Fenway and is a real pro. That being said, he has a .795 OPS since 2020. That's a 5 year sample size. It's a 122 OPS+, which is very helpful, but this is not the 7-8 WAR guy from 2018-2019. If the thought is to balance the L-R situation, his OPS vs LHPs since 2023 is .704 (.746 since 2020.) Hell, trade-talk-guy, Casas, is over .790. We need to maximize this guys value by playing him at 3B and batting him 2nd- hoping his .315 OBP in '24 was a fluke.

litocots is no longer the go-to site for contracts and budgets, but they have us at $7.5M over the first line, and count the full $40M towards the AAV CBT line. If they are wrong, and or we want to get under tax line, tare the contracts we could try to trade: (CBT$) $19.2 x 1 Giolito $18 x 3 Yoshida $9.2 x 5 + option Bello (not happening) $6.3 x 5 Rafaela (unlikely)

Agreed. Heo longer a lefty killer. He could regain that, but for 2 years, he's been worse than LHB Casas v LHPs. His big asset is 3B defense, overall decent hitting with upside and maybe clubhouse leadership. he plays 2B, we lose a big chunk of his value to our team.

Who platoons with Abreu in RF? Ref? There goes the "elite D."

He still wants a longer term deal, but he did not want $171M/6 w DET. That was $51M/3 more than our offer. It's not hard to imagine im getting a $171M/6 offer, next winter,he has a big 2025. He'd take that over $80M/2 remaining. He also will not have a offer to deal with, so maybe more teams get involved in the bidding, next winter. Certainly, $40M x 2 remaining will not be easy to pass up.

Grissom just turned 24, so there is still time for him to show he belongs, but he does not have a slot reserved for him. He has to earn a place on the 26. As of now, I have him in AAA on opening day, but I have DHam as the utility guy on the 26. He is no sure bet, either. Of course, Campbell is on my 26, so there could be room for Romy or Grissom, if Campbell is held back, a while. Adding Crochet was huge. It seems like a year ago. The other thing is what else we did to the rotation: we added Buehler, Sandoval (August?) and essentially Gio, too. We replaced Jansen and Martin with Hendriks and Chapman (plus Wilson,) so that is not a step forward, but our pen looks deeper all the way through the AAA roster. I'm liking how this team is shaping up. Health will be the main deciding point, IMO. The only players returning from injury that have to prove themselves are Gio and Hendriks. The rest, I feel like being healthy is all they need: Devers, Casas, Story, Buehler and Sandoval. (Okay, maybe Story has to prove he can hit, again.)

He's still one of our best hitters vs LHPs, and over the past 2 years, he's been better than Bregman, too. We cannot afford to lose his bat. I know Yoshida and his contract clog things up, but Casas is better than him, too. Bregman may hit better than Casas in 2025, but Casas has hit better since 2023. Just play Yoshi-Ref in LF, at least until Anthony gets the call.

It's probably right to project the same amount of injuries, but maybe other players, but Casas, Story & Devers could be very impactful.

To me, it's not about knowing or not knowing how well Bregman can play 2B. While 2B is still a somewhat open position, and Bregman would answer the question, there, I was fine entering ST'ing with a DHam/ Romy-Grissom competition for a platoon situation there, until Campbell wins the job, outright. We could not saye knew what we had at 2B, but with 4 options, I felt pretty confident one to two could make 2B a plus in 2025 vs the bottom 5 it was in 2024 with EValdez, Grissom, Reyes and DHam. We do know Devers sucks at 3B defense, and Bregman is top 5-10. The choice seems so obvious, to me. I know Cora knows more than all of us, and he also has to be the one to face an upset Devers, if that is the case- not us. The other factor in the move is that Devers cannot be worse than casas at 1B defense, IMO. We could see a plus there, too.

This site was pretty upbeat after the Crochet deal, but it got gloomy pretty quickly. Although nobody really expected us to get Soto, the interest in him did get many of us thinking maybe we will spend a lot, this winter, even after missing out on him. I will say, spending so much on Buehler, Sandoval & Chapman on short deals was not my favorite choices, but they do seem like steps up from Kluber, Richards and Paxton. Bregman's deal is bigger than Yoshida's, and seems bigger than Story's, too. (Certainly, the AAV is. It is almost as much as Story + Yoshi.) I am surprised at how much we spent. I was hopeful, but had set my expectations at zero, after so many letdown winters in a row. We added 3 SP'ers. We added a brand name everyday players who bats RH'd. We added Chapman and have Hendriks and Gio returning, as if they are new signings. We know we know we will have injuries in 2025, but 3 or 4 of our best players were hurt in 2024 and should be back in '25: Devers, Casas, Story & Whitlock. Between the addions, the returnees and the 3 top kids, it's hard not to be optimistic, again.

Fangraphs has us projected at 85-77, which is the second best record in the AL (7th in MLB.) Sox fWAR 4.5 Crochet 4.0 Devers 3.6 Bregman 3.3 Duran 2.9 Houck 2.6 Bello 2.3 Casas 2.0 Abreu 1.8 Buehler & Story, 1.5 Rafaela & Giolito, 1.3 Crawford, 1.2 Yoshida, 1.1 Chapman & 1.0 Anthony 16 players at 1.0 or higher (8 at 2.0 plus)

That's how I see it. Playing Bregman at 2B is not doing the best we can to win. It's really that simple. It's also a waste of money. This is a damn good line-up and a better defensive team than 2024: 1. L Duran CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas DH/1B 4. L Devers 1B/DH (3B back-up) 5. R Story SS 6. L Yoshida/ R Refnsyder LF 7. R Campbell 2B 8. L Abreu/ R Rafaela RF 9. R Wong/ R Narvaez C Utility: DHam If Story stays healthy, our left side IF turns from bottom 5 to top 5. Our LF defense moves from top 10 to bottom 10. 2B defense could improve with Campbell/DHam over EValdez/ Grissom/ Reyes. The rest stays about the same. (Maybe RF improves with Rafaela over O'Neill.) The rotation should be way better. The pen might get close to 2024, which was not very good.

It's not meant to imply you don't think for yourselves. I do not think saying "crowd" says that. There have been a group of posters who have been calling our JH, and rightfully so, IMO, for not spending enough, seeing us fall in the spending rankings and being a scrooge. A few have been claiming this is who JH is, and he won't spend big, again. If that is not you, then I'm not putting you in that group of posters, or "crowd." That group of posters has been very vocal and persistent, when there was really no way anyone could ever know if the spending would stop or stay low/very low going forward. There have been minor blips on spending, most notably the Story and Yoshida signings and the massive devers extension, but clearly the spending has been pretty consistently low since the Sale & nate deals. That's a long time: 5-6 years with a couple up blips.. Has this winter ended that period? It is hard to say, but we clearly have spent more, this winter than we have since the Sale-Nate contract extensions. We've spent more this winter than 2-3 recent winters combined. (We did lose some significant salaries, too, but this has been a big uptick in spending.)

Bregman's replacement?

To me, Story should have played SS, done- just as Bregman should play 3B- day one. Devers needs to think of the team needs. If he cannot see the benefit of moving positions, he drops in my respect level- bigtime. (Not that it matters what I think.)

I think Hendriks gets the first look and Chapman, second. Slaten or Whitlock might get the next looks.

Probably, yes. Doesn't cots have us at $30M under?

Yes. I have suggested a 1B/DH share that would allow both and to play 160+ games, if healthy. I don't think Devers wants to sit on the bench for half the game. I also think, he can and will become a better defender at 1B than Casas is, now.

Never. I've been saying JH's history is cycle spending, and there is "no way we know" going forward. I did say I am done "expecting spending, until see it," so in that sense,guess one could see me as the fringes of "that crowd."

Maybe, but we cannot afford giving him a look, at least to start the season. If we start the year with a 5 man rotation, I'd go with Crawford as the mid to long man, capable of high leverage situations

The deferred money part has not been confirmed, so how can anyone know?

Will this quiet the "Henry will never spend big, again" crowd?

These two are very close. Both are better than most teams' 5th starters, so having one as the 5th and the other as the 6th, is nice. (To me, Gio is 6th in projected value for '25, if 30 GS.) I like Bello as the SP'er, because Crawford has shown he can be very good in relief.