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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Ooops
  2. moonslav59
    I was not counting Gio, when I said we need Ryan. Without Gio, we need two Ryans. We went into this year with a solid 5 and another 6-7 depth starters: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Gio and Buehler. Depth: Crawford, Newcomb, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Criswell & Sandoval for AUG> We also had Wink, Whitlock, Murphy and others who were considered swing men, before. We traded Priester and added D May. We traded Newcomb and added Harrison. We still struggle with our #4 and #5, now. I don't want our # 4 & #5 to be a typical #4 and #5. That is not a winning startegy, as someone will get hurt or suck, and you end up with your 12th starter as your #4 or 5. I'd like to see Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Gio & Keller. Depth: Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, plus Tolle, Early & Perales.
  3. moonslav59
    Houck is out until 2027. We have a great 3 SP'ers and Gio will likely be a FA, so that's 2. This season, we had a rotation with about 12 pitcher depth, and we still needed to trade for May. We need two Ryans.
  4. moonslav59
    Season long? This goes back longer than that. No Masa and KC now has a position to play. (So does Casas.)
  5. moonslav59
    Welcome back Ref!
  6. moonslav59
    I think we'll pull the plug on Masa. We'll trade him and $12-15M per year out of his $18M x 2 and move on. That $3-5M saved might help us get a decent RP'er of upgrade from a $16M player to a $20M one.
  7. moonslav59
    I'd say yes. The money is big, but Casas has high upside at a low cost. While he takes up a slot of the 40, when hurt, we do need 1B depth, despite him being like Yoshida- essentially a DH only player.
  8. moonslav59
    I saw he was just over 40 a while ago, so his value has not dropped as much as some seem to be implying. Of course GMs think differently than BTV. Soe may value him way more or less than others. Would you trade Yoshida ($36M/2) & Campbell ($60M/8) for Keller ($55M/3) & Reynolds ($75M/5?) Lux tax $29M/yr to BOS vs $26M to PIT.
  9. moonslav59
    That does happen, for sure, but most seem to just accept it. Maybe they carry a grudge.
  10. moonslav59
    He was on a 115 RBI pace over 261 games in 2022. This year it's like 104. Not bad for a .257 batter.
  11. moonslav59
    I think it's time for one of those double digit blow-out wins.
  12. moonslav59
    He has had many big hits for the Sox and has more RBIs in 2024 and 2025 than his BA and HRs indicate he should. Repeatable skill? I think not, but he's done it, thus far.
  13. moonslav59
    The money issue may be the main reason we trade for a solid SP'er rather than try to sign one. The logjam on the OF is the other major reason. I agree on Bregman and Chapman needed for 2026, and that is just to remain even and not improve. (Both may not do as well as this year, anyway.) I hope we don't think Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Criswell & harrison can and will replace Gio, Buehler, Houck and others who got starts in 2025. Ideally, we add a solid SP'er AND bring back Gio.
  14. moonslav59
    Good summary of how it likely is.
  15. moonslav59
    When Lowe comes back? Eaton demoted? Sept call-ups? Harrison or Tolle? Kelly? Abreu may take up the Sept slot... Campbell or Sogard over Eaton?
  16. moonslav59
    Notable OPS Against Leaders on the Farm .480 Clarke 38 IP .504 Sena 36 .531 Fajardo 65 .550 Mullins 85 .556 Rivera 73 .587 Tolle 92 .597 Aita 106 (farm leading IP) .602 Futrell 58 (sub 1.00 ERA in August) .606 Early 94 .614 Y Cruz 54 .622 Song 44 .626 Sansone 76 .644 Travieso 59 .648 Moran 28 (Many pitchers left of this list.)
  17. moonslav59
    The suspense is building...
  18. moonslav59
    Okay. They both add up and we are close to the tax line just bringing the same team back, even without Buehler & Hendriks. That is without Devers, too. We are over the tax line, this year, so the taxes will be at year 2 rates. Crochet $3.8M >$28.3M Anthony $458K> $16.3M Campbell $1.3M>$7.5M Rafaela and Bello keep the same AAV, but make $4.5M more in 2026. Duran cost $3.8M and will make $8M option or arb raise. Lowe cost us $1-2M, this year and if we go to arb, maybe $10-12M in 2026. Bregman has a $31.7M tax hit in 2025 and ___??? in 2026. Chapman $12M to ___??? Gio $19.3 to ___??? Losing the contracts of Devers, Buehler, Hendriks, Wilson and maybe Refsnyder puts a big dent in those increases, but I don't see a lot of added spending happening, this winter. I hope I'm wrong, but going $19M over the tax line might be a dream.
  19. moonslav59
    There are 237 MLB batters with 300+ PAs in 2025: Rafaela has the 34th worst BB/K rate at .24. In 2024, he was the worst at .10, which was historically awful. While 34th out of 237 is really bad, he has gotten better.
  20. moonslav59
    Indeed. I just pointed out that his is improving, while the leagues is declining. I doubt he ever comes close to even the average, but the trends are going in opposite directions. BB% '24>'25 League: 8.6>8.4% Rafaela: 2.6>4.6% (he went from being over 1/3 to less than 1/2 the league mark) OBP League .320>.316 (It was .337 in 2006.) Rafaela .274>.292 (46 below to 24 below) Nobody knows if the trends will continue, but he has improved, significantly.
  21. moonslav59
    Good point. I do think limiting Crochet's IP or pitches will begin, soon. he leads the AL in IP and is o.1 IP from leading MLB. This, after a worry about his ability to pitch 150+ IP in the bigs. Note" Crochet is so good and relatively "efficient" that he leads the league in IP, but he is 8th in pitches thrown. That still might be higher than planned, but you gotta do what you gotta do as a manager.
  22. moonslav59
    Part of me wants to say, "Don't change a thing, Ceddane!" Don't tinker with something that is working well. I also think having a line-up with varying approaches is a good thing. It keeps opposing teams on their toes and disallows a cookie-cutter plan facing our line-up. Rafaela is striking out less as the league is heading in the other direction. He's walking more, as the league is walking less. He's got just enough power to be about 4th on the team- maybe 20+ HRs, some year(s.) He runs the bases well and fields in an all out fashion. Cutting down on errors would help, but he's a huge asset on D. His ability to play 2B and SS in a pinch also adds value and flexibility for Cora. The kid is a winner.
  23. moonslav59
    Agreed, but I doubt we want him ending the season with the most IP in te AL, like he is, right now.
  24. moonslav59
    I'm trying to be optimistic, but when it comes to spending more, I'm not setting myself up for another letdown. As it stands now, adding all the extensions and extensions and keeping Bregman, Gio and Chapman will get us real close to the line. If we trade Abreu and prospects for Ryan, we would be at the line or over with nothing left for 2B, 1B (Lowe's $11M arb?) and pen additions. We basically need JH to spend to the second tax line. The fact that he agreed to pay prospects long extensions is different from paying large and long for big FAs or going $19M over the tax line in year two (w heavy taxes.) I'll believe it when I see it, but I think JH would like us to reset in 2026.
  25. moonslav59
    Dumping Devers nearly negated what JH spent, last winter. Of course I worry, if he'll be stingy, this winter. It's ingrained in our DNA, now and since 2019. The extensions kick in in 2026 and Bello & Rafaela's start increasing soon afterwards. Duran has an option or arb, which can be costly. We have to bring Bregman back and either Chapman or another top closer to just stay even with 2025. Also, Gio and to a lesser extent Refsnyder & Wilson. We can't just stay even. That never works.
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