moonslav59

We have better depth than almost every other team. I'm not sure what the criteria is for "quality depth," as by definition, they are not starters. Last year, Houck was views as our 6th starter and Criswell our 8th or 9th. Rafaela, Abreu and DHam were viewed as role players or "depth." This year, we can view Crawford or Gio as our 6th starter. Both have a higher projected fWAR than any other team's 6th starter. If that is not "quality," what is? Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins are our 7-10 on the depth chart. I doubt anyone has much better than that, unless they are injured pitchers on the depth chart. Our pen has incredible depth, but I would agree with your point, here, and ask, how much of the depth is "quality/" We also lack a true lockdown closer, but maybe Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten or Whitlock can step up a slot and do okay. While many of the pen depth chart do not look "quality," so many have some level of promise, and there are so many of them, that it's hard to imagine almost all of them having a bad year, at once: The likely 7: (not counting our 6th starter as a pen arm) Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Wink, Weissert & Wilson. Pen depth: Bernardino was pretty damn good from 2023 to midway into 2024. Kelly & Penrod showed signs of promise in '24. We can convert a AAA SP'er to the pen: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and Fulmer. I Campbell has real promise. (Drohan and Gambrel are long shots.) The rest are fringe or just hopefuls, but some have shown clear skills: Jovani Moran, Wyatt Mills, Bryan Mata, Noah Davis, Robert Stock, Sean Newcomb, Hobie Harris, Wyatt Olds and AA pitchers like Sandlin, Cruz, Webb, Hoppe, Troye and Celluci coudl rise. We don't even need 10-15% of these fringe guys to do well. Our depth at the everyday positions is largely speculative, when it comes to our top 3 prospects, but what team has 3 top everyday prospects as highly ranked as ours? I think you have to call them quality, of nobody can say they have it. Our catcher depth is not "quality," but it could be decent: Narvaez, Sabol, Zavala (Jo Garcia is too far away to count.) 1B depth depends on Devers being handed a 1Bman's mitt or not. (Romy & Wong are the depth, now.) We might need another Dom Smith type, if Casas goes down. 2B is loaded with good depth. Campbell, DHam, Romy, Grissom, Rafaela and either Story or Mayer. SS has Mayer, but then it's Romy or Rafaela. Still, that looks close to quality as you can get. 3B now has Devers w Bregman, so it has greatly improved. (Romy and Campbell might be the only other real depth at 3B.) OF is loaded, despite losing O'Neal and not signing anyone. Projections for our OF seem very low, to me, but we had one of MLB's best hitting and defensive OFs in 2024, and most are still moving towards prime: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Yoshida and maybe Romy, Grissom or DHam can learn to play OF. Then there are Anthony and Campbell capable of winning a FT role and doing well. That looks top quality, to me.

I was very high on I Campbell, last spring. There is still hope he makes it back on the 40 and 26.

I don't either, and that is one reason I suggested adding Fitts and or Priester. I was just giving my opinion on a trade suggesting, and not commenting on the likelihood of the deal. I was a bit surprised that SEA fan, harmony, seemed open to the idea of this trade. The deal is NOT happening, but I'm always open to talking what ifs...

At 2B, we have two main options: Campbell or a platoon between DHam and Romy (or Grissom.) Yoshida could be moved to LF as a platoon with Refsnyder. Duran in CF and Abreu-Rafaela platoon RF. Rafaela or Abreu are the late inning defensive replacement when we have a lead. Or, Yoshida rides the bench as a PH'er. Or, Yoshida is optioned to AAA, until someone gets hurt.

Giolito?

There is one way: Yoshida and Ref platoon LF, Duran plays CF and Abreu-Rafaela platoon RF. Yoshida essentially replaces Rafaela's bat vs RHPs, as Rafaela becomes the 4th OF'er against righties. That is a clear plus on O, but also a clear minus on D. If the game is at Fenway, maybe the minus on D is not so bad. In parks like Yankee stadium, maybe they play RF, but the hit on D is real. The gains on D at 3B and maybe 1B and RF likely outweigh the worse D by having Yoshida play OF in 70% of the games.

Thinking 4 players out of 13, who are best suited to DH and are on our current 26 man roster is too much is hardly dumb criticism. And, that's not even counting awful defensive players like Wong and Grissom, who don't fit the DH role, either. Yoshida, Refsnyder, Casas and Devers can all be viewed at DH first players. The team gets better replacing Yoshida with a player who fills another need or upgrades one that is already decent. It's constructive criticism, whether Yoshida has value or not.

Exactly. He's not good enough to be projected as a 30 GS pitcher on the Sox. I'll do Crawford a favor and use his best cherry-picked sample size: 2023-2024: fWAR: 5.7 Castillo, 4.3 Crawford FIP: 3.86 Castillo (3.81 xFIP), 4.31 Crawford (4.34 xFIP) ERA-: 89 Castillo, 97 Crawford K-BB%: 19.1 Castillo, 17.2 Crawford Now, one can project age decline by the 32 year old Castillo and age incline by Crawford, but I don't see this as a sideways move. Castillo would be our #3, while Crawford is our #5 or 6 (4 tops.)

You see Crawford and Castillo as "lateral:" many do not. His BTV value is brought down by the contract, as Crawford's is not. Adding Yoshida cancels out Castillo's contract.

Of course the idea is fully based on spending Yoshida's money elsewhere, as in the guy we get back- Castillo.

I'd give both to dump Yoshida.

Other suggested Sox deals: Casas, DHam, Criswell & Fitts for Cease & Suarez- NO Crawford, Abreu, Yoshida for Cease and Adam- YES Yoshida, $28M, Abreu & Bleis form Mason Miller- YES Abreu & Arias for Jared Jones- YES Crawford, Abreu & Jordan for Helsley & Herrera- Yes Story, Campbell, Priester and $10M for Suzuki.- NO Grissom & Romy for Bednar- YES Bello, Abreu, Casas & Rafaela for Tatis and Peralta- NO Abreu & Yoshida for Yaz & Villar- Hmmm... YES Yoshida, $24M, Romy & Sogard for Robert Suarez- YES Yoshida, $18M, Crawford & Wong for Logan Hoppe- YES! I like this one, a lot. DHam & Wink for Bednar & T Johnson- I'd do it for just Bednar, maybe. Casas & Crawford for Munoz, Castillo and $15M- Hmmmm....probably. Ref, Romy & Bernardino for Helsley & Rajcic- YES

I'd do that and give more. Getting rid of Yoshida would be huge, even if Castillo pitches like a 4/5 the rest of the way. (I like Luis more than Crawford, so I see an upgrade over Kutter and Gio.) Grissom and Castro are nearly insignificant to the Sox. I'd add Mullins or the like to get this done.

Yes, "might," if he has a big year. If he gets another $171M/6 offer, it would be $171M vs $80M not $120M. He might even take $150M/6 over $80M/2

Over half (21) of the 40 man roster was not on the 40, when Brez took over 16 months ago. A few were in the system, already, but still, that is an amazing turn-around of the roster. Sogard, Guerrero, Penrod, Dobbins and JH Garcia were non Brez acquisitions. Brez additions: 40 man: Crochet, Bregman, Buehler, Slaten, Hendriks, Chapman, Giolito, Criswell, Romy, Sandoval, Fitts, Priester, Narvaez, Wilson, Grissom, Weissert, Sabol Non 40: Fulmer, I Campbell, Drohan, N Davis, J Moran, Stock, Mills, Newcomb, Toro, Eaton, Zavala Prospects: Sandlin, Tolle, Cason, D Reyes, J Gonzales, D Soto, S Delzine, Y Fajardo, B Neely, B Clarke, B Tygart, H Rivas, H Ramos, Z Ehrhard, Judice Did I miss someone significant?

A lot depends on how he looks in ST'ing and AAA in 2025. If he looks good, his value could return, but it's good that we do not have to count on him, even to be a 26 man roster sub. I have not given up on him, either, but if he builds back value, it might still end up being trade value. We seem to be so deep at every position Grissom might play, except 3B, but Devers could be viewed as Bregman's back-up, if we go that road. 2B: Campbell, DHam, Romy, Story or Mayer and Rafaela at maybe #5 and with Grissom at #5 or 6. SS: Story and Mayer, Romy, Rafaela, DHam with Grissom #6 3B: Devers & Bregman, Campbell? Romy? Grissom at #3 to #5. OF: Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Refsnyder, Yoshida and Campbell with Grissom/Romy as #8.

Maybe, Bregman at 2B is not such a done deal... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/red-sox-undecided-on-infield-alignment-following-alex-bregman-deal.html It is interesting that Cora thinks Bregman might be at GG level at 2B defense. Remember, he said something similar about Kike at SSor 2B.

That's how I see it. I think some do not like platoons, because they prefer having 9 all around players, and seeing a line-up with Refsnyder batting 3rd, 5th or 6th just does not look sexy. Ref bashes LHPs so well, that he's almost worthy of platooning with all but 20 players in MLB, if it wasn't for his position and poor D. My seemingly fixated position on the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B was prior to the Bregman signing to play 2B, of course. I'm still fine with the idea, if Bregman moves to 3B. They both are plus defenders- something we have not seen at 2B in a while. The worst part about the poor D at 2B, for years, is that the O has been awful, too. I think a DHam-Romy platoon could have an OPS near .750 with .780-.790 possible, and a likely plus DRS/OAA number. Call me a homer, but this seems reasonable. A Yoshida-Ref platoon at DH makes sense, as does Yoshida-Romy. A Ref-Abreu platoon makes sense, too, either a straight RF platoon or by juggling Duran from LF to CF and Rafaela from CF to RF to improve the OF D in big RF parks.

Yup. They mattered with Renfroe but not O"Neall was only one aspect or the point. While I do recognize RBIs as a luck and opportunity reliant stat, it does make replacing O'Neall's actual production easier to imagine.

And a Ref platoon with Abreu? Certainly doable.

I had serious doubts he'd ever spend large again, too. Of course, he hasn't gone large and long since Price, unless you count Story's moderately large and long deal or the Devers extension. We are back to the top 7 spending clubs, after being 12-th to 14th for a couple years or so. That is a good sign. I'm still not having great expectations, going forward, but I truly feel like a window has opened up, starting with 2025. We lose some major salary after 2025, and should be able to count on 1-3 of our top prospects to fill some slots at the lowest possible cost. That should leave an enormous opportunity to spend, especially if we end up staying under the tax line in 2025. We coudl spend some on extensions (Crochet and maybe Houck or the kids,) and still have enough to fill the slots vacated by Buehler, Gio, Hendriks, Chapman, Wilson and maybe Bregman, if he opts out or doesnt resign with us for a longer deal, after he puts up monster numbers in '25. Potential salaries lost after 2025: $40M Bregman ($31.7 CBT) $21.2 Buehler $19,3M Giolito (has an option) $10.8 Chapman $5M Hendriks (has an option) $4.4M Refsnyder + Wilson That's over $100M total! However, we would have these holes to fill: SP2, Closer, SP5, Set-Up man, 2B/3B and RHB. Still, 5 lost and $100M is $20M per slot without adding to the budget, and with 3 top prospects surely ML ready by 2026. 2026 possible FAs SP: Cease, Buehler, Eflin, Bassitt, Fedde, King, Lugo ($15M player option) Flaherty can opt out, Imanaga has club option, D May RP: E Diaz (player option) Helsley, Hendriks & CHapman, Fairbanks (club option) Pressley and many more C: Hedges, S Perez, Realmuto, Caratini & Vazquez 3B: Bregman can opt out 1B: Guerrero , Alonso can opt out

Where does Romy play to get more PAs?

The 2025 CBT Budget, according to cots: 31.7 Bregman (deferred number) 29.3 Devers 23.3 Story 21.1 Buehler 19.3 Giolito 18.0 Yoshida 10.8 Chapman 9.2 Sandoval 9.2 Bello 6.3 Rafaela 5.0 Hendriks 4.7 Whitlock 4.0 Houck 3.9 Duran 3.8 Crochet 2.8 Crawford 2.3 Wilson 2.1 Refsnyder (18 players above min wage) $610K ($760 to Hosmer - $150K Ref's option conversion) 6.4 Pre-arb players 5.3 Injured players 2.6 minor leaguers on 40 1.7 pre-arb bonus pool 17.5 Player benefits TOTAL: $240.4 M $566K under the first tax line. Spotrac has us at $228.6M, but I'm not sure that counts player benefits of $17.5M, which would make it $246.1 and $5M over the line. According to Spotrac, we are now ranked 7th in team budget- $27M from 6th (SDP who are looking to trim salary.)

We have heard how losing O'Neal's bat vs LHPs will be a big blow to our 2025 chances, and it's hard to argue against it being significant, but consider this: how many of our best hitters vs LHPs in 2024 look to get equal or more PAs in 2025? 1.179 O'Neill (156 PAs>0) .941 Refsnyder (145>???) .879 Romy (130>???) .877 Wong (152> ???) .772 Jansen (43> 0) .758 Casas (61> should be way more, barring injury) .737 Westbrook (34>0) .686 Devers (224 should be more and a better OPS in '25) .677 D Smith (47>0) .655 Duran (230) .619 Grissom (24>???) .607 Cooper (28>0) .603 Rafaela (152>?) .565 Yoshida (108>? has to do better) .532 Abreu (67>??? some want him FT) .532 DHam (50>??? should not start vs LHPs) .472 Story (20<???) My point is, if we end up squeezing Ref and Romy out of PAs vs LHPs, it might hurt more than losing O'Neall as they had 275 PSAs vs his 156. I know some posters have an aversion to platoons or "subs" starting when they have the splits, but we cannot afford to bench Ref vs LHPs and maybe Romy deserves playing time vs LHPs, too- somehow/someway/somewhere. The "where" is the major question with Bregman at 2B FT. Maybe Abreu should start the year on a platoon.