moonslav59

The depth in 2024 was pretty good, too. They sort of carried the team to a near miss. Houck was viewed by some as our 6th starter. The loss of Gio gave him his shot. Criswell did great filling in for Whitlock. It took a while, but by July, DHam and Romy did a fine job at 3B, as our 4th and 4th string back-ups (1 Grissom, 2 EValdez and 3 Reyes, all bit the dust.) Rafaela at SS was not great, but he put Kike and other past back-ups to shame. Dom Smith settled in nicely at 1B, after the failed Garrett Cooper experiment. Slaten filled in nicely as a high leverage RP'er, once others failed in that role. Booser did okay from the pen depth, but the rest of the pen depth was largely a letdown.

Fangraphs has the Sox with the best pitching WAR in the AL for 2025 (4th best in MLB.) We are ranked 20th in everyday player fWAR (O & D combined.) That's 12th in the AL. 28th at C 27th at SS 16th in CF 13th in RF 12th in LF (hard to believe) 12th at DH 10th at 2B (Bregman) 8th at 1B T4th at 3B (w HOU) It seems they view our 2024 OF as a fluke and or view the loss of O'Neill as an earth-shattering event. I think our OF is top 5-8th. 1B top 5-7 The rest seems about right, with SS as the wildcard. $40M a year to have the 10th best 2B fWAR. Hmmmm....

I was surprised to see this, as they still have us far down in the rankings of team fWAR projections with Bregman added in. In fact, I don't think we moved up at all from pre-Bregman, which I found odd. They still have us 18th in MLB and 10th in the AL, but give us the second best record in the AL.

It's not needed with Bregman at 2B, of if Campbell wins the FT 2B job. I said that. They will be back-ups as long as Bregman is at 2B or Campbell is the FT 2Bman. There is no disagreement on that. I understand not likeng a "revolving door" at 2B, as it has been a big failure since the Pedey/Nunez days, except for the brief time Story was healthy and at 2B. Nobody liked it, but I do think the DHam-Romy platoon after May of 2024 did well enough to be a plus. DHam ended the season with a 2.6 bWAR and Romy 0.9 in a combined 530 PAs. It is nice having two like them as utility players. They are better there than as starters, but we still will have rotten corner IF defense, when we don't have to. My choice would be to have Bregman at 3B, but I know that is not happening, at least to start 2025.

DHam and Romy are plus defenders at 2B and stabilized that position in 2024, after the horrific start at 2B by EValdez, Reyes & Grissom. Romy had great splits vs LHPs, although that could be an outlier. Dham did okay vs RHPs after May, but that could also have been a fluke. It's not ideal to go into a season with that platoon at 2B, but it does not look like a weakness, on paper. Certainly, Bregman looks better, and Campbell might become a better option, too. The bigger plus, by using Campbell or a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B comes from improving 3B defense with Bregman at 3B and Devers/Casas sharing DH/1B duties. That was the context used for having the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B, at least until Campbell won the job, outright. There is logic to the idea, despite it not being ideal. With Bregman on board, that changes things, and since Cora wants him at 2B, the debate is ended, in terms of what will happen. The debate on what should happen may never end. despite you wnating it to end.

I'm not so sure the Story example is a predictor of what Cora will do in 2025. Nobody else really has played much 3B. Romy has 106 innings at 3B in MLB and 87 in the minors. DHam has zero. Grissom: 0 in MLB and 235 in the minors. My guess is that when Devers gets a day off, Bregman plays 3B and DHam-Romy-Grissom play 2B. (Maybe Campbell could play 3B, but he will not be a bench player.)

True, but even if he is a GG 2Bman, the best defense is still Bregman at 3B and Campbell at 2B (or a DHam-Romy platoon,) so it may still not be worth it.

Certainly, Grissom could win a slot on the 26 in ST'ing, especially if DHam or Romy struggle, or someone gets hurt, but I agree, as of now, he's the odd man out. (I am also assuming Campbell starts the year at AAA.) Bregman at 2B may force DHam or Romy to AAA to start the year, too. It seems cumbersome to carry Yoshida and Refsnyder, but there are reasons both should not be cut. (Yoshida has options.) A DH platoon seems a total waste of roster space, but that could be how we start the season. Yoshida and Ref can be viewed as our 4th and 5th OF'ers, so they do fill emergency type double roles. Duran LF, Rafaela CF and Abreu RF, even vs LHPs might be how we start 2025. Ref could play RF vs LHPs, or do a big shuffle and play him in LF at Fenway and move Duran to CF and Rafaela to RF. That gives us 5 players for DH and OF. That leaves 8 slots for 5 positions: C + 4 IF slots, and two will be catchers Wong and Narvaez, leaving 6 slots for the IF: 1B Casas, 2B Bregman, 3B Devers, SS Story and two more- my guess is DHam and Romy. We will not put Campbell or Anthony on the 26, unless they will be playing FT or near FT, so there will need to be an injury or a big decision to bench someone to get either on the 26. The obvious move would be Bregman to 3B and Campbell to 2B, but we could also see Abreu and Rafaela becoming a platoon with Anthony playing FT (maybe CF v RHPs and RF vs LHPs.) Cora has a lot of options and flexibility, despite having 2 DH only type players on the 26.

Stroman's value would be mostly by adding someone to the pen, maybe even Stroman, himself. He's better than Wilson.

Who bats second? That's the slot modern line-up analysis deems most important, or tied with 4th as most important. Apparently, the 3rd slot should be your 5th best batter. Devers should bat 2nd or 4th, and since he has the most power on the team, I'd place him 4th. I might put Bregman 2nd to split up the run of lefty batters, and because he normally has an OBP over .360 (not in '24,) and I like Duran's speed up first. 1. L Duran 2. R Bregman 3. 4. Devers 5. I could see batting Story 3rd vs LHPs and Casas 5th, and flip them vs RHPs, but Casas has hit LHP pretty well, so I'd just slot Casas 3rd and Story 5th, every game. That could change over the season. We could also see Campbell muscle hsi way into the top 5 batters, especially if Story struggles on O, or someone gets hurt. Abreu might deserves a top 5 slot vs RHPs and Refsnyder vs LHPs, so maybe one of those two, or both, get slotted 3rd or 5th, at some point, or they bat 6th. Yoshida or a Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon could bat 6th or 7th. Our 8-9 slots will be filled by Wong/Narvaez and DHam/Romy-Grissom, if they play 2B over Bregman or more likely, Rafaela in CF or CF/RF (when Abreu sists v LHP.)

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Sandoval to the 60 Day IL to make room for Bregman. No surprise. It's surprising to hear Bregman turned down $171M/6 w DET, and there was an opt-out after 2026! The talk that nobody wants to play in Boston just took a major hit. The talk that JH will never spend big, again took a hit, although this is still just a large contract- not large and long, so that aspect is still debate worthy. I'm hopeful that Bregman will help this team in ways not seen in data. He was a big clubhouse guys, here in HOU. He helped many player adjust and get better, often with specific recommendations that worked, bigtime. He even learned Spanish, so he could better relate to the many Spanish-speaking teammates he had over the years. He's had enormous success at Fenway, even when our pitching was very good. It's hard to keep the optimism down. Breslow deserves a big pat on the back. These are the players Breslow has added to the 26, who will play in their first Sox game in 2025: Crochet & Bregman Buehler & Giolito Hendriks & CHapman Wilson & maybe Fulmer & Sandoval Narvaez & maybe these 3 not added by Brez: Campbell, Anthony and Mayer. That's 13 players not part of the 2024 MLB 26 man roster. Then, there are hopes for seeing many more games from Story, Casas and Whitlock. Technically, spring has not arrived, yet, but it has for Sox fans!

So, Campbell to the OF, along with Anthony to replace one or two of our best hitters, so we can keep our corner IF defense the worst in MLB, and perhaps MLB history. That is obviously oversimplifying the situation, but is it false?

It. sadly, means everything. I never said otherwise. His sample size at 2b means nobody knows, if he is an upgrade on D over DHam and Romy at 2B. We do know they both looked pretty good on D, last year, at 2B. Campbell may or may not be better than Bregman on D. WE DO KNOW Bregman is was better at 3B D than Devers. To me, even if Bregman plays decent to GG D at 2B, doesn't change the fact that our defense would be way better with Bregman at 3B and a combo of DHam-Romy or Campbell at 2B than Devers at 3B and Bregman at 2B. Does anyone, even Cora, doubt this? This choice is made to keep Devers as happy as possible. Let's not sugarcoat that. It's not the first time this sort of thing has been done in MLB history, and it's not claiming there no value attached to keeping your best players happy. It's something Cora had to weigh, and he made his choice, apparently. Of course, it's based on the opinion that Bregman can play plus defense at 2B. Cora knows Bregman better than any of us, but that is just one aspect of the choice being made. I'm liking the Bregman signing more and more as I dive into the data, like his numbers at Fenway and his immense leadership abilities, but it seems clear to me, his value is maximized by playing 3B. The value of Devers increases, when he is at DH or 1B, but this assumes he's not pouting and having his offense decline, as a result. I don't view Devers as a pouter, so I do see the issue like some do, and maybe how Cora sees the issue. Maybe Cora talked to Devers and walked away thinking he cannot move him off 3B. In that sense, he certainly knows more than we do. I'm still a big Cora supporter, and deep down, I think Bregman will end up at 3B, just like Story ended up at SS. I'm most happy about seeing JH deciding to break the cycle of cheapness. I don't see Bregman as the savior vs LHPs or as the "big bat" we needed, but his offense is a plus. I've repeated the .795 OPS since 2020 often enough, but I also point out the .795 comes to a 120 OPS+, so that is very nice.

Your claim that Bregman is an "instant upgrade" on defense is dubious, at best, as long as he plays 2B over DHam-Romy or maybe even Campbell. It will instantly improve the defense, the second he plays 3B.

I'm very high on the 2025 season for Casas.

The suggested trade in no way blocks Campbell, Anthony or Mayer. In fact, it helps ease the move of Bregman to 3B and Devers to 1B, which takes Bregman off 2B's block of Campbell. Trading Yoshida means no OF time for him, and more for others, like Anthony.

I view Stroman as depth, or someone who might allow us to move Crawford, Bello or Gio to the pen. Our current 2B depth chart, without Grissom: Campbell, DHam, Romy, Rafaela (Mayer or Story)

He's paid the same as Yoshida, who is part of the trade. I would not call Contreras "middling." He is also aging very well: OPS+ 106 in '20> 109>126>123>136 in 2025 8th in FWAR from 2022-24 for Catchers at 8.4. Yes, his D is questionable, but he led all catchers in wRC+ since '22 at 147. He blows away all but one catcher in OPS: .885 Willson C .859 William C .791 Murphy .785 Realmuto .771 Perez Wong is 14th at .731. I also mentioned Herrera or Pages.

If Devers really likes playing D, let him learn 1B. The bar is set very low with Casas at 1B, now. He does not have to be even plain bad to be better than the horrific Casas on D. He won't need to throw much at 1B, either, thereby saving his shoulder. A 1B/DH pair-share with Casas might allow both to get 680+ PAs by playing 160 games, each, as they rest while DH'ing.

I had a sneaky feeling the amount of deferred money was set up to keep us under the tax line for 2025. $566K does not leave much in season wiggle room, unless we dump a salary. The obvious choice would be Yoshida, but then we instantly realize, it's not so obvious. Nobody wants that contract. I don't want to sound like a broken record, but with Bregman at 3B, I'm really liking how this roster came together and think we can make a major stride, this year. I'm a huge fan of defense- maybe because I sucked at hitting after little league, but I was good at D and baserunning. Hoping for Story to play a full year is feeling like the Sale saga, but with Mayer in the wings and Rafaela looking much better than Kike & Co, I feel better about SS. Although DHam's sample size is small, the metrics back up my eye test on him being a plus defender at 2B. Romy looked good, too. That platoon at 2B or seeing Campbell there FT makes me feel much better about our keystone combo's defense than I have in over a decade. Rafaela and or Duran in CF only adds to my pleasure over our up-the-middle defense. (Only the Catcher mucks up my dream.) The joy over the improved D, "up the middle" could also be spread to our corner IF and RF positional improvements that are now possible, due to the Bregman signing and O'Neill departure. I've mentioned my opinion too many times, already (Bregman at 3B and Devers/Casas on a pair-share of 1B/DH.) To me, we could see gains on D at both corner slots. On RF, Abreu is real good on D. Either he learns to hit LHPs and becomes a FT GG-type RF'er, or we can platoon Rafaela with him (NOT Refsnyder, unless it's an away game in a park with a short RF.) I know- I know: Rafaela is our best defensive CF'er, but to me, the step down to Duran is a tiny one, and Rafaela has a better arm for RF than Duran or Ref. If Anthony busts down the door, he could play CF or RF vs LHPs and CF vs RHPs with Duran in CF vs LHPs and LF vs LHPs. (Ref plays LF vs LHPs.) Now, to my controversial and seemingly contradictory position: Our best offensive line-up would see Yoshida in it over Rafaela. One could argue over DHam-Romy, too, and destroy the D by putting Bregman at 2B, Devers at 3B, Casas at 1B and Yoshida-Ref at DH. That would improve the OF defense, but could make 3 infield positions worse. I know making our LF defense poor is check in the negative column, but this line-up looks sweet and all but LF and C looks good on D): 1. L Duran CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas DH/1B 4. L Devers 1B/DH 5. R Campbell 2B (Or LDHam/R Romy batting 8th at 2B) 6. L Yoshida/ R Refsnyder LF (or maybe 5th w no Campbell) 7. R Story SS (or 5 or 6th w no Campbell) 8. L Abreu/R Rafaela RF (or 7th w no Campbell) 9. R Wong/Narvaez C

I still think 2025 might be a huge bustout year for Casas. Please, do NOT trade him.

He probably will start the year at 2B. One sign will be seeing or not seeing Devers practice or play some games at 1B. It would be hard to switch him over there, during the season. (To DH would be easier, but if he likes playing D, I'm thinking he'd prefer 1B to DH.) I hope Cora can talk Devers into doing the right thing for the team. I remember ARod moving to 3B, when he was even a better defensive SS than Jeter, because it seemed like the right thing to do. If Devers remains adamant about staying at 3B, it really puts the pressure on Cora. Nobody knows how good or bad Bregman might be at 2B, but I'm pretty sure Campbell would be better on D. I even think a DHam-Romy platoon at 2B would play better D than Bregman. I'm thinking : Bregman > Grissom on D. Playing Bregman at 2B and Devers at 3B could make two positions weaker, and if Devers can be better than Casas on 1B D, maybe 3 positions get worse, just to keep Devers happy. All I'm hearing down here in Houston is how they can replace Bregman's leadership skills, and how he helped so many Astros over the year. How he even learned Spanish, so he coudl talk to all the players on the team. Maybe, he can bring that much needed leadership to the Sox. Gotta like the 1.250 career OPS at Fenway. I'm liking the signing, more and more, but this whole playing 2B thing irks me, bigtime.

He's been really good for a couple years... vs LHPs.

No to Bregman at 2B.