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Juan Valera, RHP, Greenville
Current ranking: 7th
Prior ranking: 19th
Physical Description: Sturdy, developed pitcher's frame with some remaining projection in his upper body. Lower half looks the part. Physically mature for his age.
Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot starting on the third base side of the rubber. Delivery works. Uses a simplified wind-up. Even without runners on, throws from a position close to the stretch, facing third base and taking only a small step toward first before coming up and to the plate. Will sometimes pause at the top of his leg kick to vary his timing to the plate, especially with two strikes. Medium leg kick. Long arm swing behind, but clean coming forward. Lands on line to the plate and does a good job repeating his delivery. Very quick arm.
Fastball: 96-98 mph. Tops out at 100 mph. Four-seam fastball is most effective up in the zone, where it shows substantial bat-missing ability. Explosive offering with a high spin rate. Shows cut at times also. Command is a work in progress, but already shows surprising feel for the zone for someone who throws as hard as he does. Potential plus-plus pitch with improved command and control.
Slider: 89-92 mph. 10-to-4 break primarily, but varies his slot, giving the pitch different shapes. Will get on top of it when looking to add more depth and on the side when looking to have it run more horizontally. Flashes the ability to land it for strikes and bury it down and out of the zone when looking for whiffs. Potential average-to-better pitch.
Sweeper: 86-88 mph. Long, horizontal shape with minimal depth. Can blend in with his slider at times. High spin rate. Needs to find consistency with it in the zone. Potential fringe-average offering.
Changeup: 91-94 mph. Shape varies. Some look like two-seam fastballs, while others have substantial fade and some drop. Still looking to find consistency with it, especially the ability to keep it competitive. Flashes bat-missing ability. Potential average-to-better offering with refinement.
Summation: Has the early makings of a potential high-end starting pitching prospect. Has a lot of development remaining and a high-variance profile, but already is one of the two highest-ceiling arms in the Red Sox system. Stuff looks dramatically improved heading into the 2025 season. Has the build you look for, along with premium velocity, even though he will be still only 18 when the regular season starts. Secondary arsenal is a work in progress, but changeup and breaking balls already flash potential. Continued refinement of secondaries will be key for him to reach his potential.